WORLDVIEW: Brazil – corrupt president, elections soon, showing way for SA

PS: A reminder to join us at 12:30pm CAT today for an update of the Biznews SA Champions portfolio. Register here..There is a clear political connection between the new South Africa and what happens in countries on the continent immediately to its west..External signs are rather obvious. South American revolutionary 'Che' Guevara enjoys iconic status in SA. "Viva" is part of the political lexicon. And for all his physical remodelling, SA's politics' enfant terrible Julius Malema favours the same red beret as his hero, Venezuelan populist Hugo Chavez..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Similarities go a lot deeper and right now are so stark that they actually provide a signpost to SA's future..Corrupted SA president Jacob Zuma's most obvious political doppelganger is his Brazilian counterpart Michel Temer. They are of similar vintage, with 76 year old Temer a single year older than his Zulu contemporary..They are also equally unpopular. In January, the Edelmans Trust Barometer showed that Zuma is trusted by only 15% of South Africans. Given recent developments, it's likely this has fallen further, perhaps even reaching Temer's approval rating of just 5%. Again like Zuma, most Brazilians (81%) want their corrupt president to be jailed..But as the world discovered this week, both have the pull where it actually counts for them – in the national chamber where laws are made..Zuma's success in overcoming Tuesday's secret No Confidence ballot (198 to 177) was mirrored by Temer's comfortable victory (263 to 227) in a similar parliamentary vote last week..The Brazilian leader's challenge followed the public distribution of a secretly recorded wire tap involving a $159,000 bribe he accepted. For Zuma, the latest scandal is the damning evidence leaked from the email servers of his business partners, the crony capitalist Guptas..Temer secured the votes he needed to retain power by directly lobbying 160 of the deputies and ensuring that those who were wavering received billions of Brazilian Reals for their regions. Zuma's methods are less public, but operating within a political party where inducements are second nature, it's not hard to imagine how he managed to pull off Tuesday's victory..These similarities also help one forecast where the Zuma saga is likely to end..After impeaching Temer's predecessor last year, Brazilians remain angry but are also showing fatigue. Despite there being even more evidence against Temer, there have been none of the massive protest marches that ended his predecessor Dilma Rousseff's career..The same seems to be happening with Zuma and his now so obviously complicit ANC. Marches that started with the promise of mass action are down to a fraction of the past. And after this week's vote, there is evidence of similar despair seeping in..As a result, South Africans are now focusing their attention on the ruling party's elective conference in December for an indication of where the ANC – and by their definition the country – will be headed..But a better indicator will be in Brazil's national election in October 2018..It is when the common folk are given he opportunity to use their votes to effect change that the real revolutions occur. In recent times, corrupt regimes have been evicted in Argentina, India and France. If Brazil follows suit, you can start betting on a repeat in South Africa in 2019.

WORLDVIEW: Brazil – corrupt president, elections soon, showing way for SA

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