The world is changing fast and to keep up you need local knowledge with global context.
By The Swede*
Living in a time where data is suppressed, manipulated and ‘fact checked’, it’s hard to make up your own mind.
I have often looked for infographics relating vaccine uptake to declining Covid-19 fatalities but to date, have not been successful. Sometimes the best alternative is to do it yourself.
I have no agenda in this analysis from which I can profit and while I have been careful in my analysis, it isn’t guaranteed to be perfect, but I supply links to all my data sources should you also wish to DIY.
First off, can we believe any Covid-19 stats? According to Fauci, no. He recently stated many are “hospitalized with COVID, as opposed to because of COVID”. He was trying to explain the recent surge of Covid-19 cases in America at over three times higher than their previous highest peak, at a time when 60% of their population is fully vaccinated! I’m sure he has some explaining to do. The point is he is not wrong, but the other point we shouldn’t miss is that this has always been the case.
So, what can we believe? I have chosen two measures that I believe are credible: all-cause mortality – it’s hard to fudge this one; and vaccine uptake as per Bloomberg’s resource – this number is directly linked to profits so it’s probably true.
I compare two countries, both using gene therapy-based vaccines (as opposed to deactivated virus-based vaccines) with significantly different vaccine uptake profiles, i.e. South Africa (28%) and Belgium (77%). The weekly mortality data for SA is from SAMRC and for Belgium from StatBel.
Although I stated earlier I don’t believe we can trust Covid-19 stats, they can still be useful. If we assume those stats are fairly consistently inflated, then they can still indicate where wave peaks are occurring.
Without getting into more accurate statistical measures of correlations and confidence intervals, we can visually see that the WHO’s Covid-19 death rate peaks (yellow bars) do seem to coincide quite nicely with the all-cause mortality peaks for both countries. Thus, it seems there is probably quite a strong correlation between Covid-19 deaths and all-cause mortality, thus allowing all-cause mortalities to be used as a proxy of Covid-19 deaths in a relative analysis.
Absolute mortality rates can’t be compared across two vastly different countries, but perhaps we can learn something by looking at their change in mortality rates as compared to their base years of 2019 before Covid-19 struck (red bar). Essentially, we are hoping the green line will flatten and return to 2019 levels. Looking at the data this way also eliminates seasonal effects on mortalities (thus allowing a northern hemisphere country to be compared to a southern hemisphere one).
As the graphs show, the WHO’s death peaks still coincide with the peaks of % Change in mortality in 2019.
Perhaps the best way to compare the countries is to look more closely at their last peak.
SA does have an advantage here as our last peak is 27 days after Belgium’s last peak. We know the virus mutates quickly and follows an evolutionary path of being more contagious but less dangerous until it reaches some (endemic?) equilibrium point, and the virus behaves the same in all countries at the same time (given our global connectedness).
The data for each country’s last all-cause mortality peak is summarised below.
|Date||All cause mortality relative to 2019||% Fully vaccinated at last peak|
It’s difficult not to conclude that both countries are at the same point in returning to 2019 mortality levels, and that Belgium’s vaccine uptake rate of more than twice that of South Africa has had little impact!
Or at least this might make you doubt the official and approved narrative?
Doubt is not something the WHO wants you to do as evidenced by Prof. Heidi Larson’s presentation at the WHO’s Global Vaccine Safety Summit in Geneva on 3 December 2019. She is the director of the vaccine confidence project and her slide states: ‘When it’s not misinformation but seeding doubt’ at 17:22 into the video found here.
- The Swede is the nom de plume of a member of the BizNews community who prefers to remain anonymous.
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