Premium: RW Johnson on policy dreams and disasters

By RW Johnson.The new ANC Secretary-General (SG), Fikile Mbalula, has told the party's policy conference that the government "must move decisively to implement conference resolutions to end load-shedding and stabilise electricity supply. Priority must be given to speeding up the resolution of the energy crisis, in particular undertaking critical maintenance at Eskom so we return existing generation capacity to reliable service". In particular Mbalula said that the newly elected NEC must act with urgency to "address the shortcomings, setbacks and reversals that threaten to undermine and erode democratic gains"..Mbalula is, of course, the most clownish of all the ANC's leaders – the decision to make him SG is pretty much death-wish stuff. But his declaration is interesting because it illustrates how completely the ANC leadership has failed to understand its own crisis. For there is, of course, nothing that the NEC can do by passing resolutions to solve the electricity crisis created by twenty-five years of continual ANC blunders, corruption and maladministration..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.When first warned of an impending crisis in 1998, the ANC simply ignored it. Eskom was hastily "transformed" – its skilled and experienced managers were replaced by people lacking skills and experience. When power cuts struck in 2008 the government decided to build two gigantic new coal-power stations – although coal was already clearly on the way out and Eskom lacked the necessary project-planning and implementation skills. Construction was marred by huge corruption and cost-overruns and neither Kusile nor Medupi has ever worked properly..The ANC insisted on appointing a whole series of short-lived CEOs of Eskom, some of them crooks and none of them capable of doing the job. Ministers repeatedly interfered and insisted that maintenance be scrapped in the interests of keeping the lights on at any cost. The Eskom workforce was massively inflated, wages were far too high and an entirely rational system of coal provision on site was scrapped so as to benefit BEE coal-owners who had to truck the coal long distances at great cost. All manner of corrupt practices became entrenched at Eskom..Finally Andre de Ruyter, a white man, was appointed as CEO in January 2020 because no black CEO would touch the job. He did his best but was accused of treason by his responsible minister, Gwede Mantashe, and understandably resigned. Many within the ANC have attempted to blame De Ruyter for power-cuts and there is foolish talk of appointing someone who will quickly "sort Eskom out". Even if a good CEO can be found – which is extremely doubtful – nobody can clean these Augean Stables at all quickly..In any case a whole series of old coal-power stations needs to be retired soon and Mantashe has successfully obstructed plans to replace them with renewable power. We need no less than 55,000 megawatts of new power by 2030 and there is absolutely no plan for doing this. As the Financial Times pointed out this week, South Africa is heading for a complete calamity. The ANC's main instinct is to try to disclaim all responsibility for this disaster. If one wants to point a finger at individuals the most culpable appear to be Thabo Mbeki, Jacob Zuma, Cyril Ramaphosa, Pravin Gordhan and Gwede Mantashe but really one is talking of a composite disaster for which the ANC as a whole is responsible..There is currently a great deal of talk about "renewal" and how the ANC must not tolerate corruption or incompetence. This is all hot air. Any real hope of renewal would have to start with the ANC taking responsibility for what it has done or not done in the past 29 years. Everybody knows that Eskom worked perfectly well under apartheid so the usual attempt to blame everything on "the apartheid inheritance" simply won't wash..This why the various new policies which the ANC will soon unveil don't really matter. For the fact is that all such policies will be overwhelmed by the growing crisis over electricity. Quite clearly that is going to get worse and worse and no amount of blame-dodging or shifting from foot to foot is going to save the ANC from being blamed for this by the whole electorate..Back in 2015 I wrote that "Either South Africa can have a modern, industrial society or it can have an ANC government. It can't have both." This has become more and more obviously true with every passing year. And South Africans of all races want a modern industrial society, one that works..As the power crisis gets bigger it will overtake all other issues as it blots out jobs, businesses, entertainment, education and all the rest. I listened to Marin Alsop, the American lady conductor out here to launch the Mzansi orchestra. She spoke of how she would never forget their concert in Durban where she had had to conduct Beethoven's Ninth symphony entirely in the dark. One can imagine this story doing the rounds in the developed world, with consequences for this country's reputation which hardly bear thinking about..Interestingly, David Makhura, the former premier of Gauteng, told the ANC policy conference that the party must be ready for coalition government, a clear indication that at least some in the ANC sense that an era is coming to an end. One cannot envy any Opposition party that enters such a coalition government. They will be confronted by almost indescribable chaos, for which the ANC will want them to take responsibility. It will be difficult for any such party to do much or to escape without badly damaged reputations..The ANC policy discussion papers include the notion of a new SOE to distribute electricity from renewables, a sort of Eskom Mk 2. It is, of course, a laughable notion. Leaving aside all the obvious practical considerations there is the simple fact that, without ever intending it, the ANC is steadily privatising more and more of South Africa's economy and society..For consider. In 1994 a very large proportion of all passengers and freight travelled by the (state-owned) railway. Today almost the totality of both has been shifted onto private trucks, buses or cars. As the police and the public schools have declined, private schools, colleges and security companies have mushroomed. As public hospitals began to collapse everyone who could fled to the private sector. In 1994 SAA had a near monopoly on domestic air travel and a very large share of South African international travel too. Both markets are now 100% catered for by private carriers. Similarly, in 1994 Telkom was an almost 100% monopoly. Now the market belongs overwhelmingly to private cell phone operators and the only question is which one of them is going to buy Telkom..In 1994 the Post Office similarly had an almost complete monopoly. Now a vast amount of communications traffic has shifted online and as the Post Office dies Postnet and the private courier companies flourish. Electricity is going the same way. Already many tens of thousands of businesses and individuals generate their own power and that number is rapidly growing. Soon Cape Town, Stellenbosch and George will all depend on private suppliers of renewable power. Despite the ANC's huge investment in Kusile and Medupi, Eskom will clearly die. Ultimately its overpaid workforce and over-rewarded coal suppliers will have priced themselves out of the market..However, en route to that the ANC will suffer possibly fatal damage. It is quite bad enough that the responsibility for the power crisis is going to be hung round its neck whatever evasive steps it takes. But imagine the situation in 3-4 years time when DA-run cities have power and cities which have been mainly ANC-run don't. This will make unbearably clear the fact that having an ANC government is incompatible with having a modern society or economy. People and businesses will flow away from Tshwane, Jo'burg and Durban to the cities of the Cape..The point is that only cities in good financial standing can borrow the money they need to set up their own electric power industries. And the ANC has run those other three big metros into the ground. Tshwane has already announced that it can't afford to generate its own power. Jo'burg has announced that it will seek to develop its own renewables-based capacity – but on a pathetically small scale which will come nowhere near meeting the city's needs..But Durban – run by the RET faction of the ANC – takes the cake. Before 1994 it was one of the larger cities in the world with zero debt. Now it is effectively bankrupt. But the ANC administration, not to be outdone, has come up with its own plan for an alternative power industry. This is exceptionally ambitious, with Durban even having its own nuclear power stations. All this will cost R324 billion. Durban has no money (and can't borrow) so, the city says, "business must come to the party". This is utterly pathetic: no one can or will come up with such funds and, a fortiori, no one will place funds at the disposal of the notoriously corrupt Durban city council..Once it is clearly established in the popular mind that living under DA rule means having electricity while being under ANC rule means living in the dark, one wonders whether the ANC will survive in any major city or town..But even that may not be the end of it. The World Bank has found our ports to be the worst run in the world. How long before they are put under private management ? And the problems of the water industry are getting worse and worse. How long before the private water companies are invited in ? By the end South Africa will have one of the most free market societies in the world, all brought about by the SACP and ANC..Read more:.RW Johnson: The People shall govern. Or perhaps not.RW Johnson: The New South Africa's original sin – Chris Hani assassinationRW Johnson: The Killing of Chris Hani"South Africa is at a turning point" – Q&A with RW Johnson.* RW Johnson is a journalist, political scientist, and historian who lives in South Africa and has been a citizen and passport holder of the country for almost thirty years. Born in England, he was educated at Natal University and Oxford University, as a Rhodes Scholar. He was a fellow in politics at Magdalen College, Oxford, for 26 years and remains an emeritus fellow.

Premium: RW Johnson on policy dreams and disasters

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