RW Johnson: Africa’s illusion of unity – Why the continent is splitting, not uniting

Key topics:.African unity has failed, with numerous states enduring conflict and instability.Smaller, more manageable nations like Botswana and Rwanda have achieved growth.Balkanisation may be the only solution to Africa's ongoing fragmentation and violence..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By R.W. Johnson___STEAD_PAYWALL___.Independent Africa's founding fathers – Kwame Nkrumah (Ghana), Sekou Toure (Guinea) and Modibo Keita (Mali) – all ended disastrously but not before their slogan of African unity had captured the minds of the rising African generation. This has been picked up and repeated by each new generation in turn and reflected in at least the naming of the Organisation of African Unity, the African Union, the Pan-African Parliament and so on..But of course, if Africa was to unite it had to be at peace with itself. In 1960 that didn't seem such a big ask. The colonial period had brought the horrors of the slave trade and often cruel exploitation – but the great benefit of the mature colonial period had been the Pax Colonial. The colonial powers proudly recounted that when they had first arrived in Africa the scene had been full of feuding tribes raiding one another and that all such activities had been firmly suppressed. Indeed, they cautioned that the end of colonial rule might well see the recrudescence of tribal warfare. Such warnings were pooh-poohed by African nationalists as mere colonialist self-justification..In fact of course Africa has hardly known a day of peace since 1960. The Congo has been more or less continuously at war with itself or foreign intruders throughout this period. Currently there is also a major war in the Sudan and Islamist insurrections in a whole series of states. These have a tendency to spill over into non-combatant states so that currently there is also fighting in Somaliland and Puntland and often murderous Islamist raids into Kenya too. Libya has also been in a state of civil war ever since the collapse of the Gaddafi regime. .Moreover, a considerable number of African states are under actual or virtual military rule which means that even in many states regarded as peaceful, in fact civilians live at the point of a gun. And even many of the states under civilian rule are actually ruled by dictators and autocrats. The result is that only a small minority of Africans live under peaceful civilian rule where the rule of law holds sway. Such are the miserable results of sixty-five years of independence. .Both the OAU and AU have proved completely ineffectual in maintaining a Pax Africana. The AU Agenda 2063 aspires to "A peaceful and secure Africa" through the use of a dialogue-centred approach at conflict prevention and a culture of peace and tolerance nurtured in Africa's children through "peace education". The key AU programme is called "Silencing the Guns by 2020". Here we are in 2025 and the guns are merrily booming away..In fact Africa has not united at all. Instead it has been steadily splitting. The union of Mali and Senegal in 1960 lasted all of two months. ECOWAS – the West African Economic Community – has just split up and the East African Federation split up long ago, as did the Central African Federation. Sudan has now split into Sudan and South Sudan, just as Somalia has split into Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland. During its liberation struggle the PAIGC always insisted that Guinea-Bissao and Cape Verde were a single state but upon independence they immediately split into two states. Similarly, during the colonial era Belgium ruled Ruanda-Urundi as a single state but upon independence Rwanda and Burundi immediately split into different states. In the same way, South Africa and South West Africa were long ruled as effectively one unit but have now divorced to become South Africa and Namibia..Read more: 🔒 PREMIUM – R.W. Johnson: A bend in our river.There is, indeed, a strong argument that Africa needs to do exactly the opposite of what its founding fathers wanted: it needs to continue to sub-divide, not unite. If one looks around the world one cannot but be struck by the fact that smaller states often become the most effective and prosperous democracies – think of Switzerland, Norway, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Austria. .It's not just that smaller states are more manageable and closer to their electorates, they are also often more homogeneous. The larger a state is, the more various its population tends to be and the only way to cope with that is to allow a very large degree of federalism with strong constituent states – as in the US, Canada, Australia and India. It is very difficult to govern a large variegated state democratically. It's no accident that both Russia and China are autocratic dictatorships..These facts have long been visible in Africa. The largest state, Sudan, was perpetually in a state of civil war and even after it has sub-divided, war continues. The Congo, another giant state, has always been at war and Nigeria has had civil war, multiple coups, dictatorship and an Islamist insurgency. It is surely obvious that all three of these states should never have been single countries and would be better off split into smaller units. Indeed, it may be a pity that the secessions of Katanga and Biafra failed – the chances of ultimately peaceful outcomes would surely have been higher. .As it is, Balkanisation may be the only way to settle many of the present conflicts. The rebellious Islamists of the Sahelian states, Nigeria and Mozambique would all like to have their own independent caliphates. Perhaps they should be allowed to have them. .Balkanisation happens because of the failures of the national political elite and the disintegration of the national state. We can see that happening before our eyes in South Africa. In large parts of the country the national government is now completely absent. There's no point phoning or emailing a government department because no one will answer. And neither the national, provincial or municipal government do their jobs – all three levels are filled, instead, with people abusing their positions for personal gain. In effect whole areas of the country have been returned to the realities of frontier life in the nineteenth century. Everyone tries to be as self-sufficient as possible and even the maintenance of law and order quickly becomes a do-it-yourself area too..The great strength of Afriforum and Solidarity derives from the fact that they provide a real community alternative to this state of nature. These Afrikaner community organisations are now far stronger than any comparable African organisations..Read more: 🔒 RW Johnson: The frightening new multi-polar world.Faced by the decay and failure of so many African states a minority have realised that only rapid national economic growth can save them. These success stories stand out – Kenya, Morocco, Ethiopia, Cape Verde, the Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Botswana, Namibia etc. Hardly accidentally, most of these are smaller states. In every such case these states are pursuing headlong market economies. There are no socialist success stories in Africa. .Frans Cronje is surely right to say that Balkanisation is already under way in South Africa. Our national state is highly dysfunctional and virtually bankrupt, on top of which it has foolishly provoked American hostility. Each year it delivers to its populace a lower standard of living, more inequality, more poverty, fewer jobs. It is hugely indebted and it is now probably incapable of overcoming any major blow..At the same time semigration has been changing the facts on the ground with some rapidity as people and capital flood into the Western Cape because it is better governed and more functional. The contrast between the towns and cities dying under ANC rule and the prospering towns and cities of the Western Cape has already become quite painful. There may never be a need for a Western Cape independence movement – independence could just happen as the South African state collapses..Of course, African nationalists will cling to the idea of African unity and will be horrified by the idea of further Balkanisation. Yet it is inherently implausible that a gigantic continent as large and various as Africa will ever unite. Africa will never wholly unite any more than Latin America or Asia will. The most that can be hoped for is larger regional blocs and a greater degree of federalism..The African nationalist elite will find it hard to give up their dreams – and it also has other dreams of self-importance such as that of African seats on the UN Security Council and the governing boards of the IMF and World Bank. But the rest of the world has become tired of an Africa which produces endless wars, emergencies and the need for peace-keeping missions. Any solution – or evolution – which promises an end to that would be welcomed. .Another way of putting this is that the African founding fathers wanted everything and all at once. Would it not be better to go with the flow, balkanise and achieve peace ? If that can be maintained one could then gradually build up towards greater and rational economic and political co-operation. Even America wasn't built in a day. The thirteen colonies which took independence as the USA had had anything up to 150 years as separate colonial states – at peace with one another – before they federated together. It's a model Africa should bear in mind..Read also:.🔒 RW Johnson: Ramaphosa and the Great G20 Flop🔒 RW Johnson: Trump's power play – A legacy of overreach and global isolation🔒 RW Johnson: Dinosaurs, evolution and historical irony

RW Johnson: Africa’s illusion of unity – Why the continent is splitting, not uniting

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