‘Something very peculiar is going on in cigarette market’: UCT Prof Corné van Walbeek

Professor Corné van Walbeek, director of the research unit of the economics of excisable products at the University of Cape Town, has been talking to smokers about South Africa's lockdown ban on cigarette sales. He says there's been a huge increase in the intensity of sharing of cigarettes – even though the government's ostensible reason for the ban was to prevent this. He also predicts that when the sales ban is lifted, the market is going to be in complete chaos. – Editor

Professor Van Walbeek… Last time we spoke, you had brought out your first report – that was soon after lockdown – to see how South African smokers had reacted. We're quite a few months into the process now. In the first report, I recall you saying that it might have been well-intended, but it actually didn't work that well. The second set of research is now telling us that it really has amplified those errors. 

Absolutely, that is exactly what we found. In our first report, we indicated that the prices on average had increased by 90% relative to pre-lockdown. At the moment the prices on average have increased by 250%, that's the average for the country but in some provinces, it's substantially more. Specifically, in the Western Cape, it's over 400% more than pre-lockdown. In some other parts of the country – the northern provinces and Gauteng – it's between a 150% and 200% more than what it was pre lockdown.

Are they quitting because of this?

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