EDINBURGH — Far more people than usual are paying attention to the minutiae of US politics in these US mid-terms, including trying to fathom the complex way voting boundaries are drawn and redrawn. This is undoubtedly because the world’s largest economy is being run by a reality TV star, who has created a highly captivating daily soap opera. Entertainment aside, Trump’s many controversial decisions, which have ranged from doing his bit to bring about peace between the two Koreas to sparking a US trade war with China and saying nasty things about Africa, have reminded us that the US exerts an influence on us all. The mid-terms this year hold the ingredients for heightening the political drama in the US. Power could be split as two Americas cast their votes. – Jackie Cameron
A Test of Trump: Midterms Could Result in a Mixed Verdict
By Janet Hook and Reid J. Epstein
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(The Wall Street Journal) – WASHINGTON — Tuesday’s midterm elections, widely viewed as a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency, have party strategists preparing for a split decision, with polls indicating Democrats on track to gain a House majority while Republicans keep control of the Senate.
Such a result, if it comes to that, would partly be a product of simple geography: The most-expensive midterm election in history is being fought out in two Americas undergoing a political realignment.
Suburban areas, where Mr. Trump is generally unpopular, will be crucial in the fight for control of the House. Rural areas, which tend to be Trump strongholds, have more sway in the contest for the Senate.
Mr. Trump said during a Friday rally in West Virginia that his fellow Republicans may lose control of the House, which could hobble him by giving Democrats power to investigate his administration and to throw up roadblocks to his agenda.
“It could happen, could happen,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re doing very well, and we’re doing really well in the Senate. But it could happen. And you know what you do? Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out.”
On Sunday, as he left the White House for a campaign rally in Georgia, Mr. Trump said his “primary focus” had been on Senate races, rather than those for seats in the House.
Democrats are confident about their chances of winning a spate of governor races, including five now held by Republicans in the Midwest, as well as ones in Florida and Georgia, where candidates are aiming to be the first African-Americans elected their state’s chief executive. They also are seeking to regain ground in a host of state legislatures after record losses during President Obama’s tenure.
Potential gains by Democrats are prompting Wall Street and business donors to break a years long trend and make more contributions to Democrats in the midterm elections.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Sunday underscored how much the election is a referendum on Mr. Trump. Nearly three-quarters of likely voters said their vote was meant to send a message about him: 32% said their vote was a signal of support for Mr. Trump, and 40% said it was a signal of opposition; 28% said it wasn’t a signal about the president.
The poll found that Democrats had a seven-point advantage among likely voters on the question of which party should control Congress. But top officials from both parties involved in House and Senate races warned dozens of races remain within the polling margins of error in the campaign’s final days. Because of the volatile nature of the electorate and the bruising experience of 2016 upending expectations, predicting precise results is risky.
“There’s a big shift going on,” said Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat who served three terms in the Senate. “This is a confused political map these days.”
Tuesday will be a test of whether anti-Trump energy that first emerged with the Women’s March a day after his 2017 inauguration is powerful enough to deliver a blow to the president and his party. Mr. Trump has worked to energize core supporters by reviving one of his signature issues: combating illegal immigration.
On Sunday, Mr. Trump and former President Obama campaigned to rally their party’s bases. In Macon, Ga., Mr. Trump called a caravan of migrants traveling through Mexico toward the U.S. an “invasion” and accused Democrats of inviting such groups. In Indiana, Mr. Obama, a Democrat, said that while health care and taxes are prominent midterm issues, “perhaps most importantly, the character of our country is on the ballot.”
Whatever the outcome, the 2018 campaign is one for the record books. More money has been spent than in any midterm election. Turnout is likely to exceed historic measures. An unprecedented number of women are running for office.
Republicans expressed confidence they will keep or expand their 51-49 Senate advantage, and Democrats privately acknowledge incumbents in North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri are at risk of losing.
“Trump needs to remind these Trump voters why it’s not OK to vote for Democrats,” said Chris Hansen, executive director of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. “These are crossover voters. President Trump is the only credible messenger to Trump voters.”
At the same time, Republican hopes were fading that the party can knock off a Democratic senator in West Virginia, where a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stopped airing TV ads in the campaign’s final week. Meanwhile, the re-election of Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, who is being challenged by Republican Gov. Rick Scott, remains a tossup.
Senate Democrats have limited their exposure in Trump territory: Incumbents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — states Mr. Trump won in 2016 — are on track to win, polls show. Democrats remain optimistic about flipping GOP-held seats in Arizona and Nevada, where late polls showed slight advantages for them. Mr. Trump’s final-week itinerary skipped both Western states.
The two parties largely agree on the House battlefield. Major super PACs from both parties bought TV ads in the final week in 46 districts. Democrats have invested in potential upsets in deep-red areas like Oklahoma City and some Atlanta suburbs, while Republicans are fortifying districts in rural central Virginia and along the South Carolina coast that have long been thought to be safe.
“Republicans can only plug so many leaks in the dam while others begin to emerge,” said Ken Spain, a former top official at the National Republican Congressional Committee. “When you see races like that emerge, we’re probably in toxic territory.”
Republican officials aiming to hold the party’s 23-seat House advantage have ceded seven GOP-held districts to the Democrats, spending no money on TV to defend them. Nine more GOP-held House seats in suburban areas are already lost, party officials said.
That means Democrats must win seven of about three dozen tossup districts to regain control of the House.
On Saturday, the House GOP’s main super PAC said it was sending last-minute funds to Alaska to help Rep. Don Young, who has been elected every two years since 1972.
The landscape has been shaken by more than the usual share of October surprises. Among them: the slaying of 11 people at a Pittsburgh synagogue, a spate of pipe bombs mailed to Trump critics, the emergence of the migrant caravan and the divisive battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Through it all, most Democratic candidates remained focused on the party’s core issue: health care, in particular maintaining a federal requirement that insurance companies cover pre-existing medical conditions.
“Health care and the cost of prescription drugs is the No. 1 issue in the district,” said Democrat Kim Schrier, a paediatrician running in a competitive GOP-held House district in the Seattle suburbs. “People are really scared.”
Republicans have followed Mr. Trump’s frequently changing priorities. They largely abandoned campaigning on the tax cut Mr. Trump signed last December and struggled to sustain a cohesive message on the nation’s booming economy. Senate Republicans gained some traction touting the Kavanaugh confirmation, then Mr. Trump turned attention to illegal immigration.
“Trump’s going to close the way he’s going to close,” said Scott Reed, the political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “We just wish it was couched more in terms of the success of the economy, Kavanaugh, and the consequences of the Democrats taking over.”
House Republicans in tight races — particularly in suburban districts — found themselves trying to make their contests a referendum on local issues rather than on the president.
“The individuals on both sides of the aisle who are probably struggling the most are those who lost touch with their districts,” said Rep. Karen Handel (R., Ga.), who represents a district in the Atlanta suburbs that Democrats are trying to flip. “Don’t be distracted by all the noise.”
Early voting is also a wild card. Michael MacDonald, who studies voting trends at the United States Elections Project at the University of Florida, reported Friday that 27 states had already received more pre-Election Day ballots than they did in the 2014 midterms.
In the 30 largest counties in Texas, where Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke is mounting a spirited but long-shot challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, the early vote total has surpassed the total number of votes cast during the last midterm election.
The combination of late-breaking news and an unpredictable president has been a test for all candidates, including political newcomers. “There’s always something that seems to be happening,” said Iowa Democrat Cindy Axne, a first-time candidate running for a GOP-held House seat. “There’s always more than we can talk about.”
Write to Janet Hook at [email protected] and Reid J. Epstein at [email protected]
