DUBLIN – UK prime minister Theresa May saw off a leadership challenge on Wednesday night, leaving her the undisputed leader of the Conservative Party. Under previous Tory rules, Margaret Thatcher resigned after winning a vote of no confidence 204 to 152. May’s margin was better – she won by 200 to 117, her opponents falling far short of the 159 votes they needed to unseat her. Nevertheless, the victory wasn’t overwhelming enough to cement her leadership and she still faces a very difficult challenge: getting a Brexit deal signed before the March 29, 2019 deadline. The current deal May is touting has proven widely unpopular. Hard-core Brexiters within her party believe it does not provide a clean enough break with the EU, while many Remainers would like to see a new referendum, now that voters can see exactly what Brexit means. May has reached out to the EU to try to renegotiate key aspects of the deal – specifically, its provisions regarding a hard border in Ireland – but her European counterparts seem to have little appetite for another round of negotiation. With a few months to go before the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, it’s still an open bet what Britain’s future looks like. – Felicity Duncan
Theresa May Ekes Out a Win in No-Confidence Vote
By Max Colchester
(The Wall Street Journal) LONDON—British Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly beat back a leadership challenge Wednesday, quelling a damaging rebellion within her party that leaves her politically wounded and the route to Brexit unclear.
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In a secret ballot Wednesday night, Conservative lawmakers voted to back her remaining as the party’s leader. However, the scale and nature of the revolt against her raises doubts over whether Mrs. May has the political clout to push a Brexit deal though Parliament.
Against the 200 lawmakers backing her, 117 voted that they had no confidence in her leadership. Rebels needed to win 159 no-confidence votes to trigger a party leadership election to replace Mrs. May.
The way forward now isn’t clear. The lukewarm backing from members of her own party suggests that any version of the withdrawal deal the prime minister has negotiated with the European Union will struggle to be ratified by Parliament.
With gridlock in the House of Commons over Brexit, the chances are increased of either Brexit being canceled—possibly after a second referendum—or the U.K. leaving the bloc with no deal at all.
For the government, the vote does buy some respite. Mrs. May is in the midst of a round of whirlwind diplomacy to get concessions on the Brexit deal that has lacked sufficient support in Parliament to pass. A weekslong interruption to find a new leader would have eaten up valuable negotiating time as the U.K. approaches its March exit date from the EU.
Mrs. May’s narrow victory did little to calm her opponents. Faced with a revolt of over a third of her party, Mrs. May “should think over night and make a decision whether she wants to carry on,” or step down, said Peter Bone, a eurosceptic Conservative lawmaker who voted to oust Mrs. May.
Her loyalists argued that her deal still had hope of passing in parliament. “She will win it by producing a good deal,” says Damian Green, a lawmaker and former senior member of May’s cabinet, adding the vote puts the argument “to bed.”
Her proposal would leave the U.K. closely bound to the EU even after it exits the bloc, a situation that is anathema to anti-EU forces within the Conservative Party. Earlier this week, Mrs. May delayed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit bill after determining that she would lose the ballot. Several lawmakers backing her ouster want a total renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s departure.
Now that she has seen off the rebels, Mrs. May’s party leadership can’t be challenged with a no-confidence vote for another year, under Conservative Party rules. On Thursday she is set to travel to Brussels to continue the Brexit talks. A refreshed version of the deal could be put to Parliament in coming weeks.
The failed coup was the culmination of months of plotting by euroskeptic lawmakers in her party who wanted to wrestle back control of the Brexit process. They believe the U.K. should completely renegotiate its departure from the EU and push for a faster exit, even if it hits economic growth in the short term. While Mrs. May’s victory defangs these lawmakers temporarily, they are unlikely to ratify any concessions she brings back from her meetings with EU leaders.
Given that Mrs. May doesn’t have a majority in Parliament, the narrow victory in the confidence vote might be enough to sink her deal.
The vote was triggered after 48 Conservative lawmakers sent letters of no confidence in Mrs. May to a special party committee. In a sign of her growing desperation, Mrs. May hinted to Conservative lawmakers she would step down before the next election, currently scheduled for 2022.
During a series of meetings, Mrs. May repeatedly warned her lawmakers that changing leader now would force a delay in Brexit and cause more uncertainty for businesses and voters.
Throughout its history, the Conservative Party has been notoriously unsentimental about its leaders, dumping them when they began to be seen as a liability. In 1990, Margaret Thatcher was ousted as leader of the party and prime minister, even after she won the first round of voting in a leadership election.
Write to Max Colchester at [email protected]
