Much ado, camel’s back or foxy unity – Clem Sunter flags three roads for coronavirus

The world appears to be more polarised with a general perception that political and value systems that were inherited after the Second World War are being eroded. With populists in power in many countries, including the United States of America, it does appear that the world is in crisis. All this is amplified by social media, where people post their knee-jerk reactions with scant observation of deeper reflection. When an epidemic or pandemic like the coronavirus enters a system that is already prone to overreaction; it easily becomes mass hysteria. And it appears that financial markets that are often too sensitive to investor sentiment are following, which could be a bigger danger to the world economy than the actual virus. There are many theories of how the virus outbreak will pan out. Well-known scenario planner Clem Sunter spoke to Biznews founder Alec Hogg about three possible routes that the world could follow. The 'Much Ado about Nothing' route, or as young people would say, 'Whatever'; the last straw that breaks the camel's back and the adaptable route of the fox, in which businesses and citizens pull together to implement "the best things to do." He expressed the hope that the coronavirus could help the world realise that "we all live on the same planet and we need to create a shared destiny." – Linda van Tilburg

We're off to Somerset West now and it's a warm welcome to Clem Sunter. Clem, you sent me a piece that you wrote for News24 about the scenarios of coronavirus. It's fascinating and you referred back to your book of a few years ago, when you spoke about the different flags that we need to watch out for – 'Flag-watching'  You've got three scenarios. South Africa knows you as a scenario planner. Can you start with those scenarios and explain to us which of the three is the one we should be most concerned about?

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