Costly Covid-19 shutdowns and when to lift lockdown: US vs SA death tolls

About 5.2m people around the world had tested positive for Covid-19 as of 22 May. Of these, 333,000 people have died, with just under 95,000 deaths reported of 1.5m cases in the US. The world's second-highest death toll has been reported in the UK, with more than 36,000 succumbing to the novel coronavirus which sprung into life at the end of last year. As Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre statistics indicate, Russia is powering up the table of worst rates of spread, with about 350,000 reports of Covid-19 contagion, followed by Brazil, with 310,000 cases. China – where it all started – has reported about 4,500 deaths and recently shutdown cities in the Dongbei region after new Covid-19 cases were brought in from Russia. South Africa has a relatively low case rate and death toll, with some commending the government for early steps to contain Covid-19 and others lambasting the ANC for over-reacting to health-related statistics at the expense of jobs, livelihoods and the economy. Fresh modelling from Columbia University on the US situation serves to highlight that the picture could have looked very different by now in SA. – Jackie Cameron

By Thulasizwe Sithole

There is a loud call for the South African government to lift one of the world's strictest Covid-19 containment lock-downs. A group of respected actuaries, mathematicians and economists – called Panda, which expects at best 10,000 Covid-19 deaths – has asked whether strict lockdown is necessary, while many business owners warn that millions of jobs will be lost forever, exacerbating poverty and ultimately playing into more deaths, though not from contracting the Covid-19 virus.

In the US, there is much criticism because lockdowns appear to have been too loose and too slow to be implemented. The New York Times has picked up on new estimates that suggest ordering Americans to stay at home just one week earlier would have saved a staggering 36,000 lives. And, a lockdown two weeks earlier than the US began imposing social distancing measures would have prevented eight out of 10 deaths to Covid-19.

"The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found," say the reporters.

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