What will it take for South Africa to recover from the economic devastation of Covid-19? And how long will recovery take?
These are perhaps the most pressing questions facing South Africans – including business leaders, policymakers, and workers. There are no easy answers, but there are some hints as to what is needed.
Massive corruption clean-up
For me, the Covid-19 crisis has underscored the desperate need for a total corruption clean-up in SA. When the crisis hit, the president and his team responded appropriately, rapidly, and in line with global best practice.
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But then, as the lockdown was implemented, we began to see the cost of SA’s lost decade. While many of Ramaphosa’s top lieutenants are able and effective, there is a lot of deadwood in the leadership cadres of the ANC. Many people have ongoing political careers despite being implicated in acts of corruption, cowardice, and influence peddling.
These zombie leaders hang on as a grim reminder of the ANC’s structural weakness – its internal divisions have forced Ramaphosa into a holding pattern, in which he allows tainted individuals to hang on to maintain his power base.
This cannot continue. There is no hope for recovery without the very best possible people in charge. In good times, an organization (and, by extension, a nation) can hobble along with a bunch of bad people in key positions. But when the tide goes out, as the saying goes, we see who was swimming naked. Large parts of the state have been swimming naked, led by people who are incompetent at best, corrupt at worst. A global economic depression is no time to be worrying about party loyalty. In a survival situation, we need the best people we can get.
Without a proper clean-up of the ANC/government rank-and-file and leadership, we are doomed.
Prioritisation, commitment, speed
Let’s be crystal clear: the Covid-19 slowdown is a crisis. It’s a meteor hitting Earth. The consequences of this are going to play out not just for a few months, but for years. Nouriel Roubini credibly predicts a depression – do yourself a favour and listen to this interview with him – and even rosy-cheeked optimists admit that this is the worst crisis since the Great Depression.
In these circumstances, SA must prioritise. Forget nice-to-haves and planning commissions. We need fast, effective action in high-impact areas. This could look like rapid public works programmes to get people employed and to upgrade our creaking infrastructure. It could look like emergency labour laws to encourage hiring to deal with skyrocketing unemployment. It could look like a radial intervention in education, summarily firing ineffective teachers and using technology to help students catch up on lost months (or, at some schools, years).
There is no shortage of great policy ideas in Ramaphosa’s administration, just a chronic shortage of willingness to act and implement. We can’t afford that anymore. Decisive action is necessary. And done is better than perfect – OK policies implemented imperfectly and adjusted on the fly are far, far better than perfect policies implemented perfectly three years from now.
Genuine coordination
Finally, to overcome this Covid-19 crisis, we need true coordination between the public and private sectors. For the last decade, public/private relations have been characterised by mistrust and mutual dislike. There is fault on both sides. The government has been guilty of corrupt behaviour, aided and abetted by private interests. Policymaking has been hostile, not collaborative. Both groups have targeted one another in propaganda attempts. Government has painted business as the enemy, business has painted the government as the enemy.
There’s no time for that now. If SA is to avoid a plunge into anarchy, which will be bad for business and politicians alike, the two groups have to work out how to work together right now. Again, done is better than perfect. Neither side is going to get everything they want. But unless there is a very quick change in the status quo, we are in serious trouble.
