Premium: As chaos reigns in Ukraine, markets rebound – sell on rumour, buy on fact?

A friend who called yesterday passed on news that Vladimir Putin took only hours to break a promise made to the Russian people. In a 6am national television broadcast Putin said he had no intention of occupying Ukraine. By mid-morning his forces crossed Ukraine's border at various points in pincer movement to surround his enemy's main army. This morning he is bombing Kyiv (see below)..On reflection, there was something surreal about the way yesterday's conversation with my pal quickly moved to another subject. Probably because we are blessed by living a hemisphere away. Remote and happily detached from what Joe Biden describes as "a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering"..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.So while mayhem and murder reigns in Ukraine, South Africans continue with their daily lives. Most only vaguely aware of Putin-created chaos. For rational minds, however, it's an opportunity to again reflect on the miracle of December 18, 2017. The day Putin's only buddy at G20 meetings, Jacob Zuma, was defeated in his attempt to embed a family dynasty in the Union Buildings..For SA, the most obvious consequence of Putin's invasion is likely guillotining of already teetering BRICs, so favoured and hyped during the Zuma era. But had that ANC elective conference in 2017 ended differently, today's Ukraine may well have been much more than mere academic interest for us. Small mercies can also carry big unintended consequences..More for you to read today:.Stocks Rally, Erasing Sharp Selloff to End Higher After New Russian Sanctions Announced. Major indexes recover after invasion of Ukraine sends stocks lower and oil above $100 a barrel.Six Reflections on the First Day of Russia's War in Ukraine. Expert insights from Dan Baer, director of the European Programme of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.SEC Probes Trading by Elon Musk and Brother Kimbal in Wake of Tesla CEO's Sales. Investigation looks partly at Kimbal Musk's trades before brother's pledge to sell based on Twitter poll.Click here for the WSJ's Live Coverage of the Ukraine War. And click here for the FT's updated coverage (no subscription required)..PS The message in yesterday's BizNews portfolio webinar was "keep your head…" Click here to watch the recording on BizNews TV..Russia Bombs Ukrainian Capital Kyiv as Putin's "Blitzkrieg" Gathers Momentum.This morning's airstrikes hit cities, tanks roll in and casualties mount in what President Biden calls an unprovoked attack, as West pledges further action against Moscow .By Yaroslav Trofimov, Alan Cullison, Brett Forrest and Ann M Simmons of The Wall Street Journal .KYIV, Ukraine—Russian forces renewed bombing Ukraine in the early hours of Friday morning, with central Kyiv rocked by explosions, after President Vladimir Putin ordered an offensive that he said was aimed at toppling the government..According to Ukrainian news outlet Liga.net, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced that three people had been injured, one of them critically, when a rocket fragment hit a residential building in the city. The building is on fire and might fall, Mr. Klitschko said.."Horrific Russian rocket strikes on Kyiv. Last time our capital experienced anything like this was in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany," Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter: "Ukraine defeated that evil and will defeat this one.".Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had sustained 137 dead and 316 injured on Thursday. He said Russia wasn't only striking military targets but also civilian sites..Roughly 100,000 Ukrainians have been displaced, according to estimates from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees..Ukrainian officials said Russia had attacked on a wide front along the country's frontiers from Belarus to the north, Russia to the east and Russian-controlled Crimea in the south. By nightfall, Russian forces captured the now-defunct, Soviet-built Chernobyl nuclear power station, the site of the world's worst atomic energy disaster, and the surrounding exclusion zone, Kyiv said..The White House said it had credible reports that Russian soldiers are holding staff at the nuclear site as hostages..Videos posted by Ukrainian authorities showed evidence of fierce fighting around the country, with downed aircraft and damaged tanks and armored personnel vehicles from both sides..President Biden called Mr. Putin's move an unprovoked, unjustified attack and said the U.S. would impose new sanctions on Russian banks, the country's elites and its largest state-owned enterprises, ramping up Washington's efforts to punish Moscow.."Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war, and now he and his country will bear the consequences," Mr. Biden said during a speech at the White House Thursday afternoon..The Ukrainian leader earlier had said the Russian attack at Chernobyl risked a new radiation leak and called it "a declaration of war against the whole of Europe." He urged Ukrainians to take up arms. "We are defending our freedom," he said. "Be ready to support your state on the squares of your cities.".The offensive—for which around 190,000 troops were massed around Ukraine—amounted to Mr. Putin's most aggressive move to redress what he views as Russian losses since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union toward Russia's borders..Moscow's assault presented the U.S. and its allies with a test of their unity over how to respond to Mr. Putin's challenge to the global balance of power. The U.S. has promised harsh economic sanctions, but Mr. Putin has leverage, too: Russia is a major supplier of energy to Europe..British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. would work with other Western countries on sanctions that he said would hobble the Russian economy. "We must also collectively cease the dependence on Russian oil and gas that for too long has given Putin his grip on Western politics," Mr. Johnson said..The U.S. Treasury said it was sanctioning almost 90 Russian financial institutions, including Russia's two largest banks, VTB and Sberbank. Mr. Biden said the package of sanctions didn't include disconnecting Russia from the Swift global-payment system, citing opposition from some countries in Europe..EU leaders said they had given the green light to a broad package of sanctions against Russia's financial, energy and transport sectors intended to inflict "massive and severe consequences on Russia." The details of the sanctions still need to be hammered out on Friday, the bloc said in a statement..On Thursday, Russian soldiers deployed by helicopter seized the Hostomel air base northwest of Kyiv. Ukrainian officials said later they had retaken the airport after intense fighting..Columns of Ukrainian armored vehicles drove through Kyiv's government quarter on Thursday, and security forces protecting Parliament and ministry buildings were deployed in full battle dress. Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, said Russian forces could attempt to enter the area by stealth to try to remove the country's political leadership. Kyiv's mayor declared a 10 p.m. curfew..Russian tanks were also deployed on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, which is about 20 miles from the Russian border, witnesses said. A battle there left four Russian armored vehicles destroyed, a witness said. Another offensive thrust was aimed at Kherson, a city on the Black Sea north of Crimea, Ukrainian officials said.."The Russian blitzkrieg has failed," said Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukrainian armed forces. "They will be washed in their own blood.".The conflict appeared to unfold similarly to the scenario predicted by U.S. intelligence officials. The Biden administration made crucial details public and the public response in some European capitals, and in Kyiv, was that the threat was exaggerated..Earlier this month, when Washington said Mr. Putin appeared to be preparing for a large-scale invasion that could include airstrikes with Feb. 16 as a potential target date, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, denounced what she called Western "hysteria."."It's been a while since I've seen so many fakes, disinformation, leaks, slander and lies," Ms. Zakharova said..On Thursday, Russia's overwhelming air superiority allowed Moscow to destroy most of Ukraine's air defense and air force. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Russian forces had hit 74 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 air fields, three command centers and a naval base..The U.S. believes Russia has launched roughly 160 missiles since it launched its invasion. Throughout the day, Russian forces "have gotten closer to Kyiv," a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon..Ukrainian officials also said military facilities and other infrastructure had been hit near the border with Poland, a NATO member. The objects struck included a television tower in the city of Lutsk, some 50 miles from the frontier, Lutsk airport and a nearby military army base..Ukrainian forces were also battling Russians in the Chernihiv region north of Kyiv, said Oleksiy Arestovych, a presidential adviser. "It won't be easy, but we'll stop them," he told reporters in Kyiv..Just before airstrikes began, Russian television aired a speech by Mr. Putin in which he said, "Circumstances require us to take decisive and immediate action" to remove Ukraine's leaders, whom he accused of "committing numerous bloody crimes.".The Russian leader railed against the eastward expansion of NATO in the decades since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, saying Moscow had been faced with "deceit and attempts at pressure and blackmail." He issued a pointed warning against any attempt to stop Russia's move into Ukraine, saying Russia was "one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world.".Mr. Putin justified his actions by saying he was answering appeals for help from leaders of two Russian-controlled breakaway regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, which he recognized as independent this week. He said he didn't intend to occupy Ukraine..Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, told reporters that Russia is prepared to negotiate with Ukraine if it agrees to become what he called "a neutral country" and stop deploying weapons. "Nobody is talking about occupation," he said. "Ukraine should ideally be liberated and cleaned of Nazis.".Russia's government has long described the Ukrainian government led by Mr. Zelensky, a former comedian of Jewish origin whose grandfather was a World War II veteran of the Soviet army, as a group of neo-Nazis on the American payroll..In Kyiv, the acrid smell of burning documents wafting from the windows of government buildings hung in the air. Restaurants, coffee shops and other businesses were closed. Reservists and soldiers with overnight bags were seen heading to their units..On the city's main Khreshchatyk avenue, veterans of the eight-year war against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine set up tents to sign up volunteers to fight. "There is a Russian threat," said one of the veterans. "Our main task is to prevent panic, to prevent the destabilization of the situation in our city.".People lined up at gas stations and ATMs as many locals sought to leave Kyiv for the relative safety of the western city of Lviv, near the Polish border. Supermarkets were open and customers packed carts with items ranging from bottled water to cat food and cigarettes.."Ukrainians are strong people. Many fled. But we will stay here in Kyiv and do what we must," said a man who asked to be identified only by his first name, Oleksandr. "If we have to we will fire at them from every window of my home.".Outside government buildings, security forces in body armor and helmets stood guard against saboteurs. Police urged citizens to avoid wearing military-looking garb and to report people with red markings on their clothes, apparently an identifier of Russian agents..Ukraine's central bank, meanwhile, limited cash withdrawals to 100,000 Ukrainian hryvnia a day, equivalent to about $3,340. It also fixed the official exchange rate..In the Black Sea port city of Odessa on Thursday, Alexander Vernik, 36, an entrepreneur with fashion-export and construction businesses, said he heard an explosion near the train station. "Of course people are panicked," he said..Yevhen Rachkovsky, 25, an Odessa filmmaker, said he had packed a go bag with documents, money and medicine, when his sister called to warn him with news of impending Russian strikes. "We've been living under the pressure that something's coming," he said. "We understood that it's happening. I'm kind of afraid, afraid for my family.".Ukrainian lawmakers passed emergency legislation on Wednesday to allow Kyiv to prepare for a Russian attack, with Mr. Zelensky's political rivals putting their grievances aside and closing ranks in the name of defending Ukraine's independence.."Ukraine above all. As long as the risk of invasion remains, we are taking a moratorium on anything that undermines national unity," former President Petro Poroshenko, Mr. Zelensky's main rival, said in an interview. "The Ukrainian people are showing unity, the Ukrainian society is showing unity, Ukraine's responsible statesmen are demonstrating unity.".NB FOR YOUR WALL STREET JOURNAL ACCESS….As a Premium subscriber you are entitled to full membership of wsj.com (normal price $29 a month). Be sure to action your access through the Premium link on the BizNews website. Because of The Wall Street Journal's credential requirements, be sure to create a password which has at least 8 characters and includes at least one letter and one number – NB it MAY NOT contain any special characters (ie #, !, @ etc). To maintain access to WSJ.com, you MUST enter our partner's website via BizNews Premium at least once a month. A final PS, if you had previously signed up for WSJ you'll need to clear the cookies from your device. Our help desk can assist – support@biznews.com..If you'd like to help sustain our independent voice, why not share the love by making a gift that keeps giving? Click here to access the BizNews Premium subscription signup form, and be sure tick the relevant box. At R100 a month and inclusive of full membership of The Wall Street Journal, it's a mind-expanding gift at an incredibly modest price..(Visited 20 times, 20 visits today)

Premium: As chaos reigns in Ukraine, markets rebound – sell on rumour, buy on fact?

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