Premium: 40 years on and the script for dealing with Russia remains eerily similar

If this week's Premium Newsletter seems slightly different that's because editor Alec Hogg is away for the week and has entrusted your inbox to me. It's a tall order so in an ode to our BizNews leader please allow me to misquote the mid-1980's fantasy film Highlander in saying, "There can be only one [Alec Hogg]"..Locally, newspapers are adorned with headlines and articles warning some serious pain in the pocket awaits South African consumers as the war in Ukraine enters its third week. While no serious pundit is willing to put their head on the block and venture a guesstimate as to what effect the volatile oil price, currently sitting at a little over $112 per barrel for Brent Crude, will have on the price at the pump, it's unlikely to be pretty..Layton Beard of the Automobile Association tells me it's still the middle of the month and "anyone who gives you a figure [of the expected increase] now is playing a very dangerous game." But, Beard says we should prepare for a significant jump. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will likely be releasing its advisory on the change in fuel prices on the 4th of April, with the change coming into effect on Wednesday the 6th of next month..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.I earlier alluded to a bastion of the late 1980's – the Highlander movie. An article from the Wall Street Journal down below, similarly harps back to this era as James Freeman opines about how the 40th President of the United States Ronald Reagan "won the Cold War while avoiding a military confrontation with a nuclear-armed adversary". It's a fascinating read, and gives some unsolicited advice to President Joe Biden, suggesting that he do a deep dive on the tactics and rationale of Reagan if he is to possibly make any headway in dealing with Russia's Vladimir Putin..Freeman quotes a colleague of his, Gerard Baker, who points out that, "The longer the fight goes on, the greater his [Putin's] incentive to escalate. The fear of full nuclear war may be overdone, but we are already a couple of rungs up the ladder that leads to it.".It's a terrifying thought to start your Monday off with I know. But fear not dear community member, news breaking late on Friday last week from Ramaphosa is that "South Africa has been approached to play a mediation role" between the warring countries. I'm inclined to regard Ramaphosa's tweet on this subject with about as much gusto as this government's ongoing commitment to deal with rolling blackouts..More for you to read today:.Russia Strikes Ukrainian Military Base Near Polish Border. Attack on site where U.S. trained local forces kills at least 35Russia vs Ukraine: It's not morally complicated. William Saunderson-Meyer writes on Putin's aggression, Western fecklessness, and SA's craven responseStop pussyfooting: help Ukraine before it's too late – Ronnie Apteker.What Would Reagan Do About Ukraine?.America's 40th president won the Cold War while avoiding a military confrontation with a nuclear-armed adversary..By James Freeman of the Wall Street Journal.To wisely counter Russia's Vladimir Putin, President Joe Biden should study the man who defeated Mr. Putin's old bosses at the Kremlin. Step one is for Mr. Biden to recognize the stakes. The Journal's Stephen Fidler reports today:.The U.S. and its allies are walking a fine line in Ukraine, seeking to help the Ukrainians thwart the Russian invasion while avoiding crossing Russian red lines and getting pulled into a direct conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary . . .Western efforts to support Ukraine as it fights the Russians go well beyond the assistance the U.S. and its allies delivered to the mujahedeen following the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.Such intervention is a gray area in conflict. Against a country with nuclear weapons, it is fraught with risks of miscalculation..The Journal's Gerard Baker wrote this week:.. . . history suggests there are only two alternatives for the Russian leader—a victory of some sort, at any cost, or the collapse of his regime.This lesson emphasizes the peril for all of us. We watch in awe the bravery of the Ukrainian people in resisting Russian aggression. But the stakes for Mr. Putin are so high that they create a terrifying paradox of Russian weakness: The longer the fight goes on, the greater his incentive to escalate. The fear of full nuclear war may be overdone, but we are already a couple of rungs up the ladder that leads to it.For the West, a defining moment will come in the next few weeks. We are tempted to push harder in Ukraine not only out of empathy with the innocents suffering there, but also by the rising prospect of defeat for Russia and the fall of the regime. Yet every further step up the ladder—the supply of money, weapons and fighter jets, even stopping well short of the no-fly zone some have called for—raises the risk that Mr. Putin intensifies or widens the conflict to avert his own fall.We are then in the early stages of a process that will require an almost preternatural level of sophistication in our diplomatic approach..Let's hope for the best from Team Biden and let's also be grateful that Alexander Vindman, one of the country's foremost experts in the field of undermining presidential authority, is no longer in the government. Mr. Vindman was on CNN today dismissing "irrational fears" that escalating military assistance to Ukraine could lead to a direct U.S. confrontation with Russia. What's irrational is to pretend that such risks do not exist..Thank goodness that Mr. Vindman did not staff Ronald Reagan, who managed to take down the Soviet empire without ever having to fight it directly. The basic idea was to use the economic, technological and moral force of the United States and its democratic allies to break the repressive Soviet Union and its backward economy. Reagan fought and won a cold war because even a successful hot war might have resulted in the annihilation of a significant portion of our population..Early in his presidency much of the focus was on Poland. Like Ukraine, Poland was among the captive nations of the Soviet empire and like everywhere else in the empire its people suffered under a communist regime's unrelenting assault on faith, freedom and human dignity. In 1980, the founding of Lech Walesa's independent Solidarity trade union and its demands for basic liberties presented a challenge to the Soviet puppet government in Poland..Reagan's desire to encourage freedom in Poland and throughout the Soviet empire was shared by Pope John Paul II, a native of Poland and a stalwart anti-communist. They would cooperate extensively to share intelligence, assist those seeking liberty, and undermine communist authority at every turn—while also seeking to prevent nuclear war..When the Soviet-directed, un-elected government in Poland declared martial law late in 1981, efforts to assist the Poles accelerated. On Dec. 15, 1981, Reagan welcomed a papal official for a working lunch at the White House. That night Reagan wrote in his diary:.Lunched with Cardinal Casaroli—Sec. of St. to the Vatican. Most of the talk was on Poland… Solidarity was going to demand a vote by the people as to whether they wanted to continue under Communism. That the Commies can never permit..A secret White House memorandum—since declassified—shows that the meeting focused both on winning the struggle for freedom and avoiding a nuclear confrontation. Six days later, Reagan wrote in his diary about a discussion with his national security team:.Another non-stop day with virtually no time between meetings. Most important was N.S.C. meeting re Poland. I took a stand that this may be the last chance in our life time to see a change in the Soviet Empires colonial policy re Eastern Europe. We should take a stand & tell them unless & until martial law is lifted in Poland, the prisoners released and negotiations resumed between Walesa (Solidarity) & the Polish govt. We would quarantine the Soviets & Poland with no trade, or communications across their borders. Also tell our N.A.T.O. allies & others to join us in such sanctions or risk an estrangement from us. A T.V. speech is in the works..Two days later, Reagan addressed the country:.As I speak to you tonight, the fate of a proud and ancient nation hangs in the balance. For a thousand years, Christmas has been celebrated in Poland, a land of deep religious faith, but this Christmas brings little joy to the courageous Polish people . . . The men who rule them and their totalitarian allies fear the very freedom that the Polish people cherish. They have answered the stirrings of liberty with brute force, killings, mass arrests, and the setting up of concentration camps. Lech Walesa and other Solidarity leaders are imprisoned, their fate unknown. Factories, mines, universities, and homes have been assaulted . . .The tragic events now occurring in Poland, almost 2 years to the day after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, have been precipitated by public and secret pressure from the Soviet Union. It is no coincidence that Soviet Marshal Kulikov, chief of the Warsaw Pact forces, and other senior Red Army officers were in Poland while these outrages were being initiated. And it is no coincidence that the martial law proclamations imposed in December by the Polish Government were being printed in the Soviet Union in September . . .We have been measured and deliberate in our reaction to the tragic events in Poland. We have not acted in haste, and the steps I will outline tonight and others we may take in the days ahead are firm, just, and reasonable..Reagan outlined a series of economic sanctions, including limits on technology transfers, to increase pressure on the failing communist-run economy. He was rebuilding U.S. military strength to deter Soviet attack but also forcing the commies to compete in a nonviolent game that they couldn't win. In a 1982 address Reagan spoke to members of the British parliament:.Poland is at the center of European civilization. It has contributed mightily to that civilization. It is doing so today by being magnificently unreconciled to oppression . . .The strength of the Solidarity movement in Poland demonstrates the truth told in an underground joke in the Soviet Union. It is that the Soviet Union would remain a one-party nation even if an opposition party were permitted, because everyone would join the opposition party. [Laughter].Reagan explained how the way to avoid war was to encourage the economic collapse of freedom's adversary:.In an ironic sense Karl Marx was right. We are witnessing today a great revolutionary crisis, a crisis where the demands of the economic order are conflicting directly with those of the political order. But the crisis is happening not in the free, non-Marxist West, but in the home of Marxist-Leninism, the Soviet Union. It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history by denying human freedom and human dignity to its citizens. It also is in deep economic difficulty . . .What I am describing now is a plan and a hope for the long term—the march of freedom and democracy which will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and muzzle the self-expression of the people..Reagan had been working to isolate the Soviet Union economically from the start of his presidency, though it wasn't always easy to bring our allies along. In July of 1981 Mr. Reagan travelled to Ottawa for an economic summit meeting. The Toronto Globe and Mail reported:.U.S. President Ronald Reagan turned Germany's proposed purchase of natural gas from Russia into the main topic yesterday during an hour-long meeting with West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt on the Montebello grounds.German officials said afterwards that Mr. Reagan pressed Mr. Schmidt to reconsider the deal, which would have Russia supply 30 per cent of German natural gas requirements by the mid-1980s. The United States fears that the purchase would make Germany too dependent on the Soviet Union for its energy needs.However, Mr. Schmidt held firm during their meeting…The Germans argued that the gas would be only 5 to 6 per cent of their total energy supplies and said their Western European allies have promised to make up the shortfalls should the Russians shut down the pipeline.The two leaders also discussed interest rates . . . The American president argued that high U.S. rates are needed to bring inflation down while the Chancellor pressed the case that the rates are causing problems to the European economy..A Washington Post account from that week suggests that the Deep State did not approve:.In his first meeting at the Western economic summit, President Reagan displayed drastic change in Washington by warning West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt it would be risky for Bonn to buy natural gas shipped through the Soviet Union's new Siberian pipeline.Neither Gerald Ford nor Jimmy Carter would have so directly confronted the imperious dean of Western summiteers. Nor was that the original intention of foreign policy bureaucrats preparing Reagan's strategy here. But on the Siberian pipeline, as on other key issues, politically appointed Reagan administration officials beat the bureaucrats . . .Officials of the other industrialized democracies, who often complained Carter did not stand for anything, grumbled here that Reagan stands for too much..Be careful what you wish for. At a NATO meeting nearly four decades later, another U.S. president would attempt to warn Europeans against relying on Russian energy supplies. A July 11, 2018 transcript from the State Department includes this passage:.PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I have to say, I think it's very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal with Russia, where you're supposed to be guarding against Russia, and Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia. So we're protecting Germany. We're protecting France. We're protecting all of these countries. And then numerous of the countries go out and make a pipeline deal with Russia, where they're paying billions of dollars into the coffers of Russia.So we're protect [sic] you against Russia, but they're paying billions of dollars to Russia, and I think that's very inappropriate. And the former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the pipeline company that's supplying the gas. Ultimately, Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas.So you tell me, is that appropriate? I mean, I've been complaining about this from the time I got in. It should have never been allowed to have happened..As President Biden seeks to maintain economic pressure while avoiding military conflict, he might also learn from the Reagan example and encourage U.S. petroleum production while persuading Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and thereby reduce the prices paid to Mr. Putin's Russia. This of course will take some work. The Journal's Dion Nissenbaum and Stephen Kalin report:.The White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, said Middle East and U.S. officials.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.'s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf..NB FOR YOUR WALL STREET JOURNAL ACCESS….As a Premium subscriber you are entitled to full membership of wsj.com (normal price $29 a month). Be sure to action your access through the Premium link on the BizNews website. 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Premium: 40 years on and the script for dealing with Russia remains eerily similar

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