Chuck Stephens: California has lost its way – what that means for the USA
California, the world's fifth-largest economy, is experiencing a political shift despite its strong Democratic history. The recent debate between Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey highlighted this trend, with Garvey closing the gap, signalling a broader rightward shift across the U.S. Though Democrats remain dominant in California, their support has declined by 10 points since 2020. This shift could impact Senate control, with Republicans aiming to reclaim power amidst evolving political dynamics.
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By Chuck Stephens
California is the fifth largest economy in the world. No, not the fifth largest state in the USA. In global terms, it is the fifth largest economy.
California is currently the bluest of blue states. It votes solidly Democrat. Gone are the Republican heydays of Richard Nixon, Ronald Regan, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. It has a blue governor and following the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein, there is one Senate seat up for grabs in the 2024 cycle.
So the last debate of this election campaign was between the two wannabes – Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey. This was a very significant moment because Garvey is about 20 points behind Schiff, and his performance was strong enough that he could close the gap somewhat, although he has not hope of winning.
What is significant is that in 2020, Joe Biden won the state of California by 30 points. So there is a measurable shift towards the right. And in the debate, Garvey stood his ground and played the man as well as the ball – he clearly dislikes Schiff and all that he stands for.
This same swing of the pendulum is happening all over the USA, so the 10-point drop in support for the Democrats in California is a bell-weather. They won't lose California, it is secure. But the same shift is happening in other states too. Even in New York, where Donald Trump has been campaigning hard!
In this election cycle, the Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats. They have the slimmest of majorities possible in the 100-seat upper house, and the trending suggests that the Republicans could take it back. The Republicans are also optimistic about keeping control of the lower House.
This cannot be interpreted as a vote in favour of Trump. Because even in his own party, Trump has been something of a maverick. He leads a factions sometimes called the "natcons". They are different from the "free-cons" of old. That why you don't see George W Bush campaigning for him, and why the daughter of Bush's VP has been out campaigning for Kamala Harris.
Nevertheless, the new "natcon" faction has clearly taken over the Republican Party and is it not as far-right. It is more centrist, and thus more ready to use the levers of state power to have its way. Whereas the "free-cons" were always in favour of government just being a referee and not a player.
Adam Schiff's take on this is that Trump wants to become a dictator. The Democrats are clearly uneasy about the prospects of this new Republican movement getting back control of government. They allege that Trump with do unto Democracy as Julius Caesar and Napoleon did. This is electioneering hyperbole.
There is a swing back to the right and if the Democrats only lose two or three of the 23 seats they are defending in this cycle, they could lose control of the Senate.
In terms of style, Steve Garvey probably won the debate on points. Simply for going the distance with the much more prominent Adam Schiff, and getting in a few good punches. He has a winsome smile and shifts his weight back and forth between his two feet like he did playing first base for both Los Angeles and San Diego. He is part of an erosion process, slowly winning back California. Meanwhile, that swing may bring us some surprises on election night.
The debate mostly allowed two different voices to explain their party platforms. It was strange that most of the debate was about federal issues like abortion, the economy, immigration and gun control. Relatively little was said about down-home California issues. Only homelessness and the phenomenal agricultural output of the central valley, east of the Sierra Nevada, came to the fore.
When you think of California, you think of San Francisco on the north coast or Los Angeles and San Diego on the south coast. But you don't think right way of the interior. The state capital is Sacramento, not on the coast, but up in the central valley. Kevin McCarthy country. He was unceremoniously removed as House speaker last year, and is still licking his wounds. But he may run for governor in 2026 or maybe for the Senate in 2030? The blue state of today is waning.
One reason is failed liberal policies. Elon Musk has moved his companies out of San Francisco to Texas. He voted with his feet. That is what people are doing – even Robert Kennedy Jr. Several major unions have decided not to endorse the Democrats, the erstwhile party of the Labour movement. Not anymore! Most of their rank and file regard the Democrats of today as the party of the elite, the rich and the famous. The working class support and many minorities like the Latino vote is shifting towards Trump.
Steve Garvey is not really in the running in California, but he is a bell-weather of winds of change. His leader Donald Trump is still very much in the running, although the Democrats are by far the bigger party with much deeper pockets.
Steve Garvey did his party proud. On substance the debaters were tied. But on style, the underdog won on points.
As for the overall election, as Yogi Berra used to say: "It ain't over 'til it's over."
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