The Democratic Alliance’s (DA) coalition with the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has sparked debate about its strategic wisdom. Critics argue the DA risks losing its identity, while proponents highlight successes in tackling key issues like unemployment and corruption. As the 2029 election looms, the DA faces tough decisions: persist in the coalition or pivot to a confidence-and-supply arrangement, betting on ANC decline and positioning itself as a credible alternative.
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By Sean McLaughlin*
Many believe it was a mistake for the Democratic Alliance (DA) to join a coalition with the African National (ANC) in the Government of National Unity (GNU). In the national election of June 2024, the ANC and the DA achieved 40.18% and 21.81%, respectively.
The ‘mistake contention’ may prove correct, but it is too soon to tell. Modest progress by 2029 may see the essence of the GNU survive into a second term.
The argument against full coalition went that the DA would prove no different to the many smaller coalition partners in history who have sacrificed their identity at the taste of power.
Many in think-tank-land, including myself, were advocating a looser confidence and supply arrangement. That would have given the DA more experience of government at a national level through parliamentary committees, whilst still claiming the role of opposition. The DA could have positioned itself as the government-in-waiting as the ANC implodes by 2029.
Following the June election, the matter on the nature of cooperation with the ANC went to an internal committee within the DA.
It came as a surprise to many that a full-blown coalition later emerged.
Some say that DA Federal Chairperson Mrs Helen Zille preferred the confidence and supply option.
Some DA ministers have performed exceptionally well within a short time, clearing backlogs in Home Affairs, launching head on attempts to bring down the construction mafias, and crafting and advocating for plans for large scale private investment in infrastructure.
National unemployment figures from November 2024 showed a modest 1.4% drop to 32.1%.
Whilst the main economic ministries are in ANC hands, creativity has been abundant in seemingly lesser portfolios.
Communications Minister Solly Malatsi (DA) proposed Elon Musk’s Starlink could enter SA by bypassing harmful Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) laws, through alternative ‘empowerment’ measures such as contributions to schools.
Such ‘sidestepping’ obstructive parts of the ANC is the path forward and could extend to other ministries in cabinet reshuffles, winning political capital for the DA.
Momentum
To paraphrase Jan Smuts, SA may yet again be the land where neither the best nor the worst happens.
In that scenario, the semi-miraculous nature of the GNU formation fades into yesteryear. The honeymoon period ends, and deep policy reform is not forthcoming.
Certain cabinet bubbles remain aloof, and voters may start to resent the GNU for too slow a pace of change. That would show up in ongoing polling.
Forces behind that go something like, “it is more important to maintain unity within the ANC than pursue serious policy reform, and the DA will not risk its position within the government by rocking the boat”.
That may unfold for a lot of the coming period, but continued unemployment may see flare ups in rioting, as in KwaZulu-Natal in 2021. ‘Crunch-time’ could come around 2027. That would be the opportunity to burn SA’s edifice of harmful labour market regulation, ensuring SA clings to the world’s highest unemployment rate at 32.1%. That is one way to drive down unemployment and the crime rate.
Moving the dial?
Yet progress begins with reversing, blocking or diluting damaging live legislation. These are the last dregs of a liberation movement (the ANC) which has lost power, perhaps irrevocably.
Amendments have been sought on a harmful education act – the BELA (Basic Education Laws Amendment) act – which would have centralised the language of instruction.
Following ferocious cabinet rows, the attempt to nationalise high performance healthcare – NHI (National Health Insurance) – faces fierce and many legal challenges.
There is a case for slower, gradual reform.
New to coalition land, the ANC and the DA must be given the time find comfortable happy mediums.
Moving too fast could annoy the wrong people, with the ANC turning abruptly to the far left.
Liberalising legislation may not attract desired investment if it is not thoroughly prepared.
History warns against rapid shifts. That can have unintended consequences sooner or later. Rapid immigration in the UK from 2004 was thumped at the ballot box 12 years later in 2016 through Brexit.
Confidence and Supply?
I wrote on July 17 2024,
“If, 18 months from now, the DA realises it is not possible to effect change, it should remove itself from the agreement and assume a looser confidence and supply arrangement in opposition.”
Now having tasted national power, the DA may not want to forgo it.
But that may be the only thing that can prevent significant vote loss by 2029. It must retain the image of a serious, credible player: “we tried, and we can’t do this”.
Mrs Zille is acutely aware of the pitfalls of coalitions. Thankfully for SA, she is also unrelenting.
Her swansong may be to remove the DA from the GNU coalition and assume a confidence and supply arrangement with the ANC, in say 2027, two years ahead of the next national election.
This should be seen as, “we’ll take the hit and come out of the cabinet for now”, building internal knowledge systems of how government operates, betting on the ANC falling further with the DA gaining by 2029.
Further ‘bulwarks’ against irreversible damage could be negotiated including devolving policing to provinces for checks and balances and reaching compromises for land expropriation such as a Land Value Tax (LVT).
If anti-GNU individuals win the ANC’s 2027 conference, a new centre-left party could emerge, with support from moderate ANC members deeming a far-left agenda to be suicidal. Such an entity would do very well in 2029.
In any case, a far-left tie up would only have two years to destroy a free society, from 2027 to 2029.
And SA’s classical liberals may never get their way unless the DA becomes the largest party, which could then lead a national coalition.
Until that happens, it must be realistic about policy reform.
The rise of the lean state
SA may start to see a development model where non-state entities take a lead.
By the ‘lean state’, I am not referring to the size of government; it is well known that that SA’s public sector is bloated.
If harmful labour market laws will not be burnt, then a business chamber should offer an ‘exemption card’, in which young people do not have to comply with labour market regulations, as floated by the Free Market Foundation.
Such entities should proceed without asking.
The Department of Home Affairs may have businesses train staff to clear visa backlogs. The DA Minister for Public Works has requested the private sector to refurbish decrepit government buildings. The ANC Minister of Police has suggested leveraging private security expertise.
All of this reiterates that the battle for South Africa is well underway.
Private entities may soon realise that they are the ones holding the country together. They should act as the real movers that they are.
Read also:
- 🔒 DA leader Steenhuisen optimistic about ANC coalition
- 🔒 RW Johnson: DA’s mountain that must be climbed for governing coalition with ANC
- SACP opposes ANC coalition with DA and MKP, favours minority government
*Sean McLaughlin worked in market intelligence between 2016 and 2020. He has written extensively on European affairs for think tank VoteWatch Europe. From 2021-2024, he worked as a data analyst. He is an Associate of the Free Market Foundation. Sean can be reached at X and LinkedIn.
