Gauteng: Change coming for the cities in 2026 – Seán McLaughlin
Gauteng's recovery hinges on the Democratic Alliance (DA) navigating complex political terrain. Seán McLaughlin, a political scientist and data analyst, explores the party's potential to lead amid challenges like ANC mismanagement and coalition instability. With Midvaal's success as a blueprint, the DA could gain momentum in 2026, turning small municipal wins into broader governance. Will voters back its vision for Gauteng's cities, or will fragmentation stall progress? Read more for key insights.
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By Seán McLaughlin*
Gauteng's turnaround depends to an extent on the Democratic Alliance (DA). How it plays the situation in the coming years will be key.
BizNews interviewed DA Member of the Provincial Legislature (MPL) Jack Bloom in July 2024. Referring to poor governance of the African National Congress (ANC) in the province, he said that the first principle of medicine is to do no harm.
The DA is not a perfect party, but it can at least offer an administration that is not harmful. It has the size, experience and potential to drive a recovery.
Yet can the party still market itself as a viable, government-in-waiting? Some say even the presence of DA ward councillors is damaging as their hands are tied. In 2023, DA councillor David Potter resigned claiming officials in the city were no longer interested in fixing it.
Much media in SA misreads the DA's actions. Often those who should be getting behind the party instead dent its electoral prospects.
And can it communicate that it is not culpable for the decay despite two attempts to govern the City of Johannesburg? In its defence, both times it lacked a majority.
Similarly, the party has stood on the sidelines to governing at a provincial level amidst deterioration. In its defence, the offer it was made by the Gauteng ANC in June 2024 was unworkable.
Will voters make the distinction that the DA joined national government in 2024 but not in Gauteng? Tintswalo would be forgiven for not knowing the difference, scraping a living as a cleaner by day and protecting her child from extortion gangs by night.
DA Federal Chairperson Zille stated that the DA would have been the largest party in the Gauteng in 2024 if the vote was not split among many tiny parties. It cannot be expected to assume government if voters do not give it the numbers.
Far from shying away from governance in the province, the DA has enjoyed a majority in Midvaal (one of Gauteng's nine councils) since its inception. It can govern well when there is not a daily battle to stay in power. The stats appear to support that claim.
Midvaal is by every metric the best governed municipality in Gauteng, with a clean audit for 10 consecutive years.
In November 2024, the municipality was nearing agreement with a contractor to upgrade electricity infrastructure and wean itself off the national utility.
This is the DA's provincial 'beachhead'.
2026 – Coming for the cities
2025 will be the scramble to fix potholes ahead of cranking into full election mode for the Local Government Elections (LGEs) in 2026.
Given Gauteng's urbanised nature, many assert city councils are more important there than the provincial legislature. In October 2024, the DA was on a search for young mayoral candidates.
When the time is right, the party sits ready to call in the cavalry for Johannesburg for what will be this century's most exciting regeneration project. That would mean devoting resources, expertise (both internal and external) and experience to getting it right.
If the DA can be the largest party in the cities post 2026, a turnaround story could increase its vote to later gain majorities.
Many voters on the fence or unregistered could be swayed by small gains by the simple fixes in refuse removal and mending streetlights. People frankly do not care about political dynamics, even if that is the problem.
The cities of Gauteng are in a very bad state. That may see the ANC do terribly in 2026.
That could be interpreted in two ways. The first and correct way would be that the specific ANC leadership in the province is doing enormous damage to the province and party.
The second would be that it was a mistake for the ANC to do a deal with the DA at a national level and that the ANC should change course to the far left.
I wonder if regional variation in the ANC's results may tell a tale.
The ANC vote may collapse into the 20% range in the cities of Gauteng but stabilise in cities elsewhere. That would be all we need to know.
In September 2024, the Social Research Foundation (SRF), a think tank, polled that support for the ANC and DA rose from May.
The foundation responded to requests for further information on regional variation saying that indeed some was detected but it did not provide detail.
Following the 2026 elections, the best-case-Gauteng-municipalities-scenario for the DA could be:
- A retained outright majority in Midvaal
- DA/FF+ majority in Tshwane (Pretoria)
- DA/FF+ other small party majority in Mogale City
- Largest party in Johannesburg, Ekurheleni and Rand West City.
- ANC-DA confidence and supply pact with the DA the junior partner in Merafong City, Lesedi, Emfuleni.
Similarly, the DA has closed the gap to the ANC in every municipality in the province:
Data provided by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) and prepared by the author
These are not predictions. The demography, size, challenges and political dynamics of each of these councils is vastly different.
Lesser mentioned is how Rand West, Lesedi, Emfuleni and Mogale City could be in play. A centrist majority is within a whisker in Mogale City.
The DA may ascend to the largest party in many councils but with no stable ally to provide the numbers. It is the party's responsibility to find a reliable partner.
I am aware that the ANC and the DA were recently close to agreeing a stabilisation pact for many cities across the country. This is a sphere in which the DA has leverage.
This may have entailed a confidence and supply arrangement between the parties, in which the DA could take executive committees, and the ANC the legislature (parliamentary oversight committees). It could provide a reference for the future.
I do not know if it would have been legally binding. But a known known for future is that such a deal is no use if it can be easily breached.
Or we may see full municipal coalitions. Few foresaw a full ANC – DA national coalition. So much will boil down to a few individuals in a specific caucus.
I understand that there is pro-DA support within certain Gauteng ANC circles, notably in the City of Ekurhuleni due to the failure of the ANC-EFF coalition there.
Plausibly, a new Gauteng-focused centrist party with critical mass could arise, to produce a centrist alliance. That may be with the ANC, or it may be without it. It may only need around 15% for that and may appear as early as 2026.
Without radical shake up of the ANC leadership in the province, these look to be the dying dies of the ANC's leadership in the Gauteng cities.
And having waited in the wings, 2026 may finally be when the DA can take the lead.
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*Seán McLaughlin is a Political Scientist and Data Analyst.
Previously, he has worked for data and news providers Wood Mackenzie and Acuris. He holds a degree in Arabic and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, as well as a degree in Data Science for Business, from the University of Stirling.