US-SA tensions boil over as tariffs loom and alliances shift: Kenneth Mokgathle

Key topics:

• US to end AGOA, impose 30% tariffs on South African imports in August 2025

• Tensions rise over SA's pro-Russia, pro-Hamas stance and ICJ case against Israel

• Critics slam ANC for ignoring local crises while chasing global political battles

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By Kenneth Mokgatlhe*

September, a month synonymous with renewal and new beginnings, will be the most challenging period in South Africa’s political and economic landscape due to actions likely to be taken by the US against the country. The first is the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire in September. However, the new 30% tariffs introduced by the US for SA will likely override the existing AGOA conventions when they take effect at the beginning of August 2025. The second biggest conundrum will be the possibility of the US Senate’s decision on the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025.

The ground is fertile in the US to act against the South African government, which is believed to have acted against the US’s national interests. The US has been very critical of South Africa’s foreign policy stance, which, on many occasions, went against the American national interests. This has been evident in their divergent voting patterns on various United Nations (UN) platforms, where South Africa and the US have often taken opposing positions. The relations between the US - SA did not break during the Trump administration, and Joe Biden also raised similar concerns about South Africa.

The ANC should be told, “You made your bed, now lie in it.” They have chosen to strengthen their alliances with the geopolitical rivals to the West at the expense of decades of working partnerships with the Western powers. It was very shortsighted of the ANC to believe that there would not be actions or reactions from the side of the US on how it is being undermined by Africa's powerful regional bloc. 

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The escalating tensions between the US and South Africa took an uphill path in 2022 when South Africa was alleged by the US to have loaded the Lady R with armaments that would be used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The South African government dismissed this allegation. In 2023, in the aftermath of Israeli attacks by Hamas on the 7th October 2023, we saw South Africa continuing with its support for Hamas, a designated terror organisation by countries such as the US and European Union (EU) countries. Dr. Naledi Pandor kicked off a diplomatic storm when she agreed that she had a telephonic conversation with the same Hamas and offered them humanitarian support, a vicious group that invaded Israel and killed more than 1200 innocent civilians and kidnapped more than 250 people, some are still held under the tunnels in Gaza to date. 

Just when we thought that the ANC would tone down its anti-US messaging, it did the unexpected by dragging the State of Israel into the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ). Their legal basis was that Israel was committing genocidal acts in Gaza. This act by the South African government would be seen as heroic by some, while others criticised the move because it would not be a viable solution to the longstanding Israel-Palestine conflict. It is possible that the ANC’s thinking at the time was to maximise its electoral fortunes, which drastically dropped to below 50%. Their energy on the issue is draining because it is not yielding them the political capital they had planned.

If indeed South Africa was genuine about fighting for the rights of the vulnerable people around the world, they could have started with their population, wherein 14 million people are living in dire poverty, not knowing what they would eat the following day. A country where quite a sizeable youth are unemployed. The country that experiences 62 murders per day for the whole year, a number that is unmatched throughout the world, we are the murder capital. Still, the political leadership ignores what is affecting their people. 

*Mokgatlhe is a political analyst and consultant.