Dive into a year of sharp insights and incisive commentary from Oxford Don, political scientist and BizNews tribe favourite RW Johnson. This exclusive collection showcases his most impactful articles on BizNews, offering unparalleled analysis of the political and socio-economic forces shaping our world. A must-read for those who value clarity and intellectual rigour in understanding today’s complexities.
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Pali Lehohla’s election postponing pipe dream – rebooting would not ‘fix’ the ANC
On 18 January, RW Johnson challenged former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla’s proposal to delay South Africa’s 2024 elections for national dialogue. Lehohla, an ANC senior member, praised the party’s initial 15 years for progress but criticized the Zuma and Ramaphosa eras for regression and corruption. Johnson deemed Lehohla’s call for a new Codesa naive, citing current power dynamics and corruption within the ANC, and predicted declining support for the party due to governance failures.
Hypocrisy abounds in unresolved contradictions on “Global South”, “NAM” bluster
On 26 January, RW Johnson critically explored the contradictions of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the “Global South,” tracing their origins and questioning their contemporary relevance. Highlighting President Ramaphosa’s attendance at the NAM conference, Johnson examined NAM’s Cold War roots, its founding leaders, and its post-colonial ambiguities. He critiqued its unclear purpose, democratic shortcomings, and internal conflicts, concluding that NAM and the “Global South” reflect unresolved contradictions and geopolitical vacuity.
Ramaphosa’s Russian-prompted ‘Regime Change’ fixation
On 8 February, RW Johnson unpacked South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s warning of “foreign interference” which sparked intense speculation. With whispers of anti-Semitic undertones involving Israel and alleged Russian influence, questions arose over the ANC’s declining popularity and a mysterious influx of funds, possibly linked to Moscow. Ramaphosa’s rhetoric mirrored Kremlin propaganda, heightening concerns about Russia’s sway over South Africa’s political landscape and the integrity of its upcoming elections.
The very rational (to them) reason so many Americans support Trump
In an interview with BizNews editor Alec Hogg on 20 February, former Oxford professor RW Johnson unpacked Donald Trump’s cult-like support. Johnson explored Trump’s enduring popularity, despite controversies, and warned of the potential global fallout if “Captain Chaos” were to return to the White House. For South Africa—one of the world’s most open economies—Trump’s isolationist policies could have significant consequences. A must-listen for those concerned about global trade and SA’s economic future.
(Re)Structuring SA’s national interest post-ANC – a rational proposal
In a sharp critique of South Africa’s foreign policy, the Brenthurst Foundation’s Greg Mills and Ray Hartley highlighted Fikile Mbalula’s misguided attendance at Russia’s anti-Western conference, arguing that the ANC had aligned with authoritarian regimes, not “drifted” into it. On February 25, RW Johnson wrote that while democracy and human rights rhetoric sound ideal, national interest often proves decisive in realpolitik. Johnson underscored missed opportunities post-1994 to secure South Africa’s economic, regional, and institutional dominance through pragmatic, interest-driven policies.
The elephant in the room – deputy president Paul Mashatile
Amidst pre-election turmoil, RW Johnson wrote on 28 February that Paul Mashatile’s rise as deputy president highlighted the ANC’s internal struggles and corruption allegations plaguing Gauteng politics. Facing legal battles, Mashatile navigated ANC dynamics by forging uneasy alliances with the EFF and Patriotic Alliance. As coalition politics loomed, compromised leadership was deepening factional divides. With the spectre of state capture lingering, South Africa’s ability to tackle critical economic and social challenges remained in jeopardy.
Seismic changes ahead as ANC drops, voter cynicism and MK surge ahead of May 29
On 27 March, RW Johnson discussed South Africa’s most authoritative pre-election survey, highlighting key insights from face-to-face nationwide interviews. Johnson revealed significant political shifts, with the ANC’s declining vote and the strong possibility of a coalition government after May 29. He also predicted growing calls for devolution or secession, particularly from KZN. Johnson spoke with BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
BNC#6: Explosive political insights: ANC’s future hangs in the balance
Speaking on the second day (13 March) of the BNC#6 conference in Hermanus, RW Johnson stunned attendees with explosive insights on the ANC’s uncertain future. Revealing unprecedented polling data, Johnson highlighted the rise of MK and its potential to disrupt South Africa’s political landscape. As smaller parties gained momentum and youth apathy grew, Johnson’s assessment of KwaZulu-Natal’s shifts and the Eastern Cape’s dynamics left attendees grappling with the nation’s evolving political trajectory and its uncertain future.
SA’s true GNU may soon arrive 30 years late, better than never
In a candid reflection spanning decades of South African governance, on 10 April RW Johnson unveiled the sobering reality behind the promise of “National Unity”. Recounting the pitfalls of ANC leadership, Johnson described a nation adrift, marred by inefficiency, corruption, and ideological fervour. Yet, amidst the crisis, glimmers of hope emerged as the Presidency tentatively reached out to business and civil society, hinting at the long-overdue possibility of a new Government of National Unity.
Maimane, Malema, Mashaba – career missteps from egos run riot
On 21 April, RW Johnson dissected politicians’ paradoxical relationship with polls, revealing their true attention despite claims of indifference. He critiqued the ANC’s confidence despite polls indicating uncertainty, explored the DA’s polling strategies, and critiqued smaller parties’ aspirations against harsh electoral realities, reflecting on African politics’ pervasive egotism and its impact on governance and progress.
Russia, Ramaphosa and SA Election – Putin now backing two horses
Speaking to BizNews editor Alec Hogg on 22 April, RW Johnson explained what led him to investigate a Zuma-supporting, Kremlin-funded media operation (Amandla) – and wondered at Ramaphosa’s inability to accept the reality of Putin’s double play and the ANC’s sharp decline in the polls. Sobering and scary, Johnson’s analysis reinforced the view that SA’s elections on May 29 were shaking up to be a make-or-break for the young democracy.
Election’24 will be SA’s showdown of all showdowns
The lead-up to South Africa’s May election was marked by significant political upheaval. On 23 April, RW Johnson unpacked the landscape in SA. The ANC faced a dramatic decline, with the MKP rising sharply, while the EFF remained a powerful force. Two possible coalition paths emerged: one with the DA, offering stability, and the other with populist MKP-EFF, which could destabilize the country. With tensions rising, President Ramaphosa’s decision would determine whether South Africa could avoid economic collapse or face a chaotic future.
DA’s mountain that must be climbed for governing coalition with ANC
On 24 April, RW Johnson wrote that the future of South Africa hung in the balance. With the spectre of an ANC coalition with populist factions looming, the fate of the nation rested on Ramaphosa’s resolve to steer clear of ruin. The prospect of an ANC-IFP-DA coalition emerged, promising a multiracial alliance for change. However, as the DA navigated the complexities of coalition politics, daunting challenges and tough decisions loomed, demanding strategic foresight and unwavering commitment to rescue South Africa.
Still searching for SA’s first good President
On 2 May, RW Johnson offered a bold critique of South Africa’s post-apartheid trajectory, examining the presidencies of Mandela, Mbeki, Zuma, and Ramaphosa. Through missed opportunities, missteps, and unmet expectations, Johnson unveiled a nation grappling with leadership failures and political ambition. With candid insight, he explored South Africa’s turbulent journey and the pressing need for transformative leadership to navigate the challenges of its next chapter.
ANC/DA/IFP is SA democracy’s last hope – without it, all may be lost
Writing on 12 June, RW Johnson argued that despite clear poll data showing significant public disenchantment with the ANC, political analysts and ANC leaders remained in denial about the party’s declining popularity. The ANC’s failure to address key issues like inequality and illiteracy, coupled with a refusal to take responsibility, hampered efforts to form a successful coalition government. An ANC-DA-IFP coalition is crucial for South Africa’s democratic revival, despite the risks and internal resistance from within the ANC.
Poorly negotiated GNU leaves major players with huge challenges, future problems
On 30 June, RW Johnson wrote that the Government of National Unity (GNU) negotiations highlighted internal tensions within the ANC, with factions favouring different party alliances. Ramaphosa’s effort to include smaller parties to mask a crucial deal with the DA saw mixed results. While the DA’s participation is essential for governance, internal ANC divisions and resistance threaten the GNU’s success. The outcome still remains uncertain as both parties navigate significant challenges and necessary compromises.
GNU’s bad faith bargaining hid the tapping of Ramaphosa’s probable successor
On 5 July, RW Johnson wrote that the GNU and provincial unity governments, led by the ANC, had caused widespread dissatisfaction due to their bad faith in power-sharing, as evidenced by the unequal distribution of ministerial positions with the DA. This led to political disillusionment, decreased election turnout, and potential violence. Johnson wrote that the ANC’s actions undermined democracy, perpetuated corruption, and nullified voters’ desire for change. But what many missed was the tapping of Ramaphosa’s potential successor, Ronald Lamola, who was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs in the GNU Cabinet reshuffle.
Labour’s “landslide” – how Farage’s poison pill slammed Tories
On 7 July, in the wake of a narrow Labour victory, RW Johnson described how Keir Starmer faced significant challenges, from a disillusioned electorate to internal leadership struggles. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, disrupted Tory support, complicating Labour’s position. As the Tories grapple with a post-Brexit identity crisis and leadership turmoil, Britain’s future remains uncertain. The political landscape is poised for a shift—will Labour consolidate power, or will Farage’s populism reshape the conservative scene?
Immigration chaos – Biden’s border blunder and Starmer’s warning
In the lead-up to the 2024 US Presidential election, Joe Biden’s delayed response to the southern border crisis gave Donald Trump an opportunity to dominate the issue, resulting in a significant polling disadvantage for Biden. On 11 July, RW Johnson unpacked how this parallels UK political history, where immigration shaped elections and policies. As Labour’s Yvette Cooper addresses illegal immigration with a new Border Security Command, the real challenge will be whether this strategy can stem the influx without provoking a right-wing backlash.
The nuclear chess game over Ukraine
In recent years, Russia has escalated nuclear threats, with President Putin warning the West of severe repercussions for supporting Ukraine. These statements aim to strengthen Russian morale amidst military setbacks and growing isolation. NATO, however, has stayed calm, viewing the threats as bluffs. As the war persists, Western nations continue their unwavering support for Ukraine, remaining resolute in the face of Russia’s provocative rhetoric. On 17 July, RW Johnson unpacked the subject.
Time for the DA and its supporters to awaken from Zille’s Goldilocks dream
Helen Zille has predicted the ANC’s downfall in the 2029 elections, citing the loss of Cyril Ramaphosa as a key factor. She has also envisioned the DA rising as South Africa’s leading party, competing mainly with the EFF. However, on 8 August, RW Johnson argued that Zille’s bold forecast overlooks complex variables, including voter turnout trends, racial divides, and the DA’s stagnant growth. RW Johnson suggested that Zille’s predictions may be overly optimistic and out of touch with South Africa’s political realities.
Destructive Patel may be gone but ANC economic policy still stuck in Wonderland
In early August, the World Bank criticised South Africa’s trade policies, blaming former Trade Minister Ebrahim Patel for higher tariffs and production costs that stifled economic growth. While Patel had left office, his flawed localisation strategy remained under new leadership. On 12 August, RW Johnson discussed how the ANC’s ongoing failure to tackle corruption and economic mismanagement is deepening its electoral decline, exposing a broader systemic crisis that hampers South Africa’s economic progress and regional trade.
ANC requires “De Klerk moment”, abandon bankrupt ideology, spark economy
In a stark warning in mid-August, David Makhura of the ANC signalled that South Africa may be on the brink of a revolution if the GNU fails. Yet, as the government rallies for investment under the guise of patriotism, RW Johnson writes that underlying issues persist: oppressive labour laws, economic restrictions, and rampant crime. Without significant policy shifts, these factors spell an imminent socioeconomic crisis. Drawing parallels with apartheid’s decline, the current trajectory mirrors a precarious future, necessitating radical reform for true transformation.
Nats on Apartheid mirrored by ANC on economic policy. Race-based idiocy
In an interview with BizNews editor Alec Hogg on 19 August, RW Johnson exposed obvious parallels between the National Party’s Apartheid project and the ANC’s obsession with racially-based economic policies. Both had disastrous consequences – and required a radical re-think, fuelled by social unrest, before abandonment. The big question is whether Cyril Ramaphosa is able to adopt the radical change of an FW de Klerk or the timid, incrementally-based approach of PW Botha.
Why has SA not followed Zimbabwe (yet)?
In late August, RW Johnson unpacked why South Africa hasn’t followed a similar trajectory to its close neighbour Zimbabwe (yet). Johnson wrote that South Africa’s political landscape stands apart from the typical African liberation model, shaped by its pluralism, diverse population, and history of representative government. The ruling party embraces opposition legitimacy, supporting multi-party democracy. Nelson Mandela’s leadership and democratic norms further reinforced this system. However, the future is uncertain, with rising threats from authoritarian figures like Julius Malema and Jacob Zuma challenging the nation’s democratic stability.
Big trouble is brewing in the USA – Egotistic Trump vs Empty Harris
On 2 September, RW Johnson highlighted the disturbing rise of extremist militias and fringe groups under Donald Trump’s influence, particularly as the 2024 election loomed. Johnson examined how Trump’s rhetoric had emboldened these groups, who are prepared to use violence to challenge democratic processes. He also critiqued the Democrats’ failure to address immigration issues and warned of potential chaos, regardless of the election outcome, driven by deeply polarized and volatile forces in American society.
Cyril’s dilemma on Motsoaledi, ANC’s ineffective, financially ignorant health minister
On 18 September, RW Johnson dissected Aaron Motsoaledi’s tenure as Minister of Health which has left a mixed legacy. While praised for reversing harmful Aids policies and expanding ARV access with international support, his leadership faced significant criticism. His administration was plagued by management failures and an inability to implement the ambitious 10-point plan he initially proposed. His efforts to push through the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) policy have also faced widespread opposition, raising concerns about its constitutionality and feasibility.
Looking back in admiration at fearless editor’s resistance to ANC
On 29 September, RW Johnson reflected on the complex legacies of South Africa’s post-1994 era, spotlighting unsung heroes like Raymond Louw. While many journalists succumbed to ANC influence, Louw championed press freedom with unwavering courage, warning against complacency in a rapidly changing political landscape. As he battled government intimidation, his commitment to independent journalism served as a crucial reminder of the dangers faced by the media, even in a democratic society.
To SACP boss – are you a Marxist or a racist? Cannot be both.
Solly Mapaila, head of the South African Communist Party, is troubled by what he calls the ANC’s “class suicide” in its alliance with the DA. Yet, on 2 October, RW Johnson wrote that his critique seems more rooted in racial politics than Marxist ideology. As the DA ministers made strides in cleaning up governance, Mapaila’s focus shifted to race and resentment, questioning the nature of his own analysis. Can Mapaila remain a Marxist while fostering race-based antagonism?
Joburg’s descent into another Kinshasa likely to continue
On 13 October, RW Johnson reflected on the grim reality that Johannesburg faces as political corruption undermines essential services. With the ANC and EFF in power, residents have endured ongoing electricity shortages, now compounded by a severe water crisis. Mismanagement and theft of funds meant for repairing infrastructure have left broken water pipes unattended, leading to widespread shortages across Gauteng. This situation reflects decades of neglect, leaving the City of Gold struggling to meet its citizens’ basic needs.
The Gauteng water crisis – Joburg is a dying city
On 30 October, RW Johnson wrote that Johannesburg’s escalating water crisis is a symptom of years of municipal neglect and mismanagement under the ANC, leaving the city teetering on the edge of collapse. To restore stability, innovative water recycling and desalination strategies are essential, but only a decisive leadership change promises true recovery.
NAILED IT: RWJ on Oct 8: Data unequivocal – Trump heading for another term
Almost a month before the election, RW Johnson predicted Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, highlighting key advantages like poll underperformance and electoral college bias. He argued that Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, struggled with weak public support, poor strategy, and unclear policies. Johnson’s conclusion—Harris’s “politics of joy” wouldn’t counter Trump’s strong positioning—remains compelling, making this a must-read for anyone following political dynamics in the US.
Space Race Mark II; This time US v China for moon base
In mid-November, RW Johnson dissected the modern day Space Race. China’s space program, initiated during the Cold War by rocket pioneer Qian Xuesen, has rapidly advanced, culminating in the Tiangong space station. Although smaller than the International Space Station, it highlights China’s growing space ambitions and its rivalry with the U.S. With projects like the Mars rover, China’s space capabilities are now on par with NASA, signalling a new era of both geopolitical tension and potential cooperation in space exploration.
The ANC dilemma – a personal journey
On 17 November, RW Johnson critiqued the ANC’s political trajectory, expressing disillusionment with its failure to uphold intellectual rigour and its reliance on propaganda. He condemned the betrayal of MK veterans and the emergence of a corrupt elite, drawing comparisons to other African nations. Johnson questioned the party’s broken promises and the sustainability of its rule, warning of the potential for populist upheaval. His analysis highlights the ANC’s fractured legacy and uncertain future.
The rather confused chief comrade of SA’s communists
On 24 November, RW Johnson once again critiqued SACP leader Solly Mapaila’s rhetoric, accusing him of prioritizing racial narratives over Marxist principles. Johnson examined Mapaila’s stance on “whiteness,” the GNU, economic policy, and his contradictory ideological positions.
The drama of Donald Trump vs the US Senate
On 26 November, RW Johnson wrote that Donald Trump’s approach to governance mirrors his life in construction: ruled by ego and loyalty demands akin to a mafia boss. His cabinet nominees—ranging from the scandal-prone to the wildly unqualified—test Senate Republicans’ independence. The Senate faces a crucial moment: uphold democracy or bend to Trump’s will.
Ukraine now a 1938 redux for dozy peaceniks of Europe
On 3 December, RW Johnson unpacked how Europe’s complacency on defense is being tested by Russia’s aggression, exposing the continent’s military vulnerabilities. Dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, only nations like Finland and Poland are urgently rearming. As NATO struggles with unity and Trump’s potential withdrawal looms, fears of Russian expansion grow. History warns against appeasement; if Europe doesn’t act swiftly, it may face a crisis similar to the 1938 Munich Agreement.
French Govt collapse carries stark lessons for Pretoria
On 8 December, RW Johnson wrote that France’s political crisis, triggered by Macron’s snap elections and a fragmented parliament, mirrors South Africa’s fragile stability. This turmoil exposes weaknesses in constitutions dominated by single parties and the dangers of populist coalitions. France’s direct presidential elections show that leaders with national mandates can better manage crises. South Africa could learn from this, considering reforms to enhance accountability and representation, addressing its own governance challenges.
Why BELA Bill is an existential threat to GNU as Friday’s deadline looms
On 11 December, leading up the BELA Bill deadline on the 13th, RW Johnson discussed how the Basic Education Law Amendment (BELA) bill has ignited a political crisis in South Africa, threatening the Government of National Unity. Key provisions transferring school admissions and language policy control from governing bodies to provincial authorities have provoked fierce opposition from Afrikaans organisations, the DA, and FF+. With mounting tensions and political stakes high, President Ramaphosa faces a critical decision.
Second-level thinking on what’s happening in Israel, Middle East
On 12 December, RW Johnson unpacked the constantly escalating tensions in the Middle East. The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel had far-reaching consequences, disrupting the US-backed India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) and reshaping regional dynamics. This audacious assault sought to refocus attention on Palestine but resulted in devastating losses for Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as weakening Iran’s influence. Israel’s decisive military response altered the Middle East landscape, bolstering its position and paving the way for IMEC’s eventual progress, with potential wider Arab recognition of Israel.
