Key topics
- Labour’s economy falters with no growth and rising recession fears.
- Reform gains momentum, threatening Labour and the two-party system.
- Immigration crisis fuels voter anger, boosting Farage’s populist appeal.
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By RW Johnson ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Labour’s triumph in the British election of 2024 already looks ill-fated and short-lived, despite the party’s massive majority in the House of Commons. The party achieved that majority with only 33.7% of the vote largely because the conservative bloc was split between the Tories (23.7%) and Nigel Farage’s Reform Party (14.3%). And it won because it promised growth and change.
Already things don’t look at all good. After all the fanfare about Rachel Reeves as the first ever woman Chancellor of the Exchequer, her budget has gone down like a dead dog in a wet sack. There have now been two quarters with no growth at all and there are widespread forecasts of a recession. Alpesh Paleja, an economist at the Confederation of British Industry, warns that the economy is “headed for the worst of all worlds”. Firms are reducing output and laying off staff and they are protecting themselves from heavy new taxes by putting up prices, so inflation is heading upwards again.
Labour has already lost ground in the polls and has lost a string of local council seats. Ahead lie the English local elections in May 2025. These are likely to be bad news for Labour but what is spooking both Labour and the Tories is the possibility that the main benefit may go to Reform – perhaps aided by generous donations from Elon Musk. Already Reform boasts of 100,000 members and its treasurer/fund-raiser, Nick Candy, claims it has the support of a number of billionaires. Currently the polls show Labour and Reform both at 25% with the Tories at 22%, the BibDems at 12% and the Greens at 9%. So while Reform has only 5 seats in the Commons, it is clearly growing and it looks as if the whole two party system is fragmenting..
Labour has several major problems. Sir Keir Starmer is a decent and able man but he is a charisma-free zone and, perhaps worst of all, he is a lawyer through and through so there is a certain straight-up-and-down quality to the way he thinks and speaks. The description most used is “tone-deaf”. There is none of the political guile of the Wilson or Blair administrations, none of their inspirational slogans or phrases, let alone their dash and style. After only eight months in the job Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister in over forty years, with 30% approving of him and 62% disapproving..
On top of that the Labour front bench is extremely weak. While Liz Truss was doubtless the worst foreign secretary (and prime minister) that there’s ever been, David Lammy, the current foreign secretary, is particularly poor and it’s unclear whether Rachel Reeves’s reputation will ever recover from her awful start, particularly since she seems to have started making suggestions for growth which seem quite panic-stricken. And the foreign secretary and Chancellor are the two top people after the PM in any administration. Labour simply can’t afford duds in these two jobs, especially since the Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, inspires little confidence. One looks back to Wilson’s cabinet – with Jenkins, Healey, Crosland, Castle, Crossman, Gardiner, Stewart, Soskice, Lever and Diamond – and realises it was a golden age of high ability.
And now Labour has to deal with Trump – and the awkward fact that Nigel Farage is a close friend and associate of Trump’s. Farage’s opposition in the Commons to the Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius was one thing, but Farage has clearly communicated his views to Trump who is reported to be deeply displeased with the deal and its effect on the crucial UK-US base at Diego Garcia. If Trump tears up the deal it would be a major humiliation for Starmer and Lammy.
Amazingly, the government refuses to publish details of the deal but all indications are that it is a complete turkey. For a start there is no good reason for handing the Chagos Islands (formally known as the British Indian Ocean Territory) over to Mauritius, which is 2,191 km away, let alone paying Mauritius GBP 9 billion (apparently) for taking them. There is no safeguard against the islands coming under possible Chinese influence in the future and the Diego Garcia base is both indispensable and extremely valuable. The ruling by the International Court of Justice that British occupation of the Chagos is illegal is itself non-binding.
Trump, although not yet in office, has already talked of taking over both Mexico and Canada, buying Greenland and taking back the Panama Canal from Panama. He is clearly in high spirits, throwing his weight around and feeling mightily empowered by his clear victory. He will be very difficult to deal with especially since many Labour politicians have made many rude remarks about Trump over time – something the notoriously thin-skinned Trump never forgets. And Labour didn’t help itself by sending a whole team of workers over to help Kamala Harris against Trump. No matter what Trump does Starmer simply can’t afford a public disagreement: America is the indispensable ally.
But the issue on which Starmer is most vulnerable is immigration. He came to power promising – like all his Tory predecessors – to bring immigration numbers down and under control. They all failed and it is not yet clear that Starmer will be any different. He halted the Tory scheme to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda, essentially because the European Court of Human Rights had found fault with the scheme – airily saying he would use diplomatic talks with European leaders and a crackdown on the people-smugglers to halt the flow. Yet endless governments have tried such things and got nowhere. Meanwhile there is the steady flow of boat-people crossing the Channel, a fact which greatly irritates and annoys the public who blame such migrants for putting extra pressure on housing, hospitals, schools etc. Worse still, official figures show that immigration has soared despite Labour’s promise to control it. It is now reported that there are over half a million illegal immigrants in London alone.
This is Farage’s issue par excellence. He simply advocates withdrawal from the ECHR, asking why on earth Britain should allow foreign judges to rule on such domestic matters. This horrifies Starmer the Lawyer but is popular with many voters: it is a classic example of how the populist Farage can outflank the major parties. And although Reform only won 5 seats, it came second in another 98 – and 89 of those are Labour-held. In other words, Farage’s appeal to disgruntled working class voters is a major threat to Labour.
There is another related point, which is the growth – right across Europe – of anti-Muslim feeling, The murderous attack by a Muslim on the Christmas market in Magdeburg came in the same week that a whole series of Muslims were sentenced in France for their complicity in the beheading of the schoolteacher, Samuel Paty. Such events are widely reported throughout Europe and come after many other similar atrocities. And in many European countries there are now powerful right-wing movements vocally opposed to “the Islamicisation” of Europe. Britain doesn’t yet have such a party but the (currently jailed) street politician, Tommy Robinson, is vehemently anti-Islam and has a considerable following. The murder of three little girls in Southport early in 2024 set off anti-migrant and anti-Muslim riots in many parts of Britain.
Starmer sternly repressed these disorders, simply blaming right-wing extremism. But they were a warning. There are now over four million Muslims in UK and their numbers are increasing. By 2050 the Muslim population is projected (on onlya median immigration scenario) to grow to 13 million, the most in any European country. As in the rest of Europe the existence of this large and very different civilisation (one which singularly fails to integrate with the locals) in its midst has created a strong nativist reaction. This in turn has caused Muslim leaders to demand that Starmer pass laws against Islamophobia and to enforce “respect” for Islam. Labour depends on Muslim votes and so Starmer has promised to do this.
This is deeply unwise and could take Labour into trying to curb free speech and even into the realm of the anti-blasphemy laws that Muslims demand. Even within Labour circles such demands are deeply unpopular. More important, it is inconceivable that the Muslim population can double and triple without an explosive nativist reaction. At present Reform is careful not to associate itself with anti-Muslim feeling but the rapid growth of the Muslim population and the increasing Islamicisation that it portends are bound to produce a major anti-Islamist movement (like France’s Rassemblement National) before long.
The combination of economic stagnation, a failure to deal with the immigration issue and a government which has already lost all momentum produce a toxic mix. Add to that a populist Reform movement on the rise and the scene is set for a very difficult year indeed for Sir Keir.
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