ANC’s electoral setback sparks coalition speculation in SA

As South Africa's ruling party faces its toughest electoral challenge since the end of apartheid, President Cyril Ramaphosa's confident predictions clash with the reality of waning support. With the African National Congress haemorrhaging votes in key provinces, coalition politics loom, shaking financial markets and sparking uncertainty. As the nation braces for a new era, the outcome holds profound implications for policy, accountability, and the legacy of a party that once led the fight for freedom..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By Mike Cohen and Antony Sguazzin.Just hours after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa confidently predicted that the ruling party would easily retain its three-decade stranglehold on politics, it was increasingly clear that voters had other ideas — sending the country into uncharted terrain. .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.The latest results from Wednesday's election show the African National Congress hemorrhaging support in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the two most-populous provinces. An extrapolation of the tallies by a state research body suggests it will win just 41% of the national vote. .Read more: ANC's declining support sets stage for potential coalition government in election'24.If that projection proves accurate, the party will lose the outright majority it has held in every election since apartheid ended and have to partner with at least one of its main rivals to retain power or form a minority government, meaning it will no longer have carte blanche to determine policy..People watch live voting results at the IEC National Results Center in Johannesburg, South Africa on May 30..The prospect of the ANC tying up with either the populist Economic Freedom Fighters or the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, which is headed by scandal-tainted former President Jacob Zuma, spooked financial markets — the rand, the country's bonds and its stock market have all weakened..The securities will likely rebound should the ANC partner with the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, which looks set to retain its position as the main opposition. That could prove tricky because the two parties have long had an adversarial relationship, clashing over everything from health and education policy to the management of the national budget.."It's a big deal," said Sanusha Naidu, a Cape Town-based research associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue. "Depending on how the coalitions pan out, it could have a major bearing on the markets and how the next administration approaches macroeconomic and other policies.".Ramaphosa hasn't been seen in public since he voted in Soweto, near Johannesburg on Wednesday. He refused to discuss coalition options in the lead-up to the election, because he was adamant the ANC would be able to continue governing on its own. Formal cooperation talks are unlikely to begin until final results are released this weekend, and uncertainty will reign until they are concluded. .Cyril Ramaphosa casts his vote in Soweto on May 29. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg.In addition to shedding support in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the ANC looks set to lose its majority in the Northern Cape province. Backing for the party has also slumped in Mpumalanga.."The projected result is a significant blow for the ANC, but it is the start of a new era of coalition politics in national government," said Mike Davies, the founder of political-advisory company Kigoda Consulting. "The exact policy implications will depend on the coalition agreements, but it is clear that the ANC will no longer have the power to drive through contested policies or rubber stamp cabinet decisions using its parliamentary majority. This will complicate the legislative process, but could also enable greater accountability.".Both DA leader John Steenhuisen and EFF head Julius Malema have indicated they would be prepared to work with the ANC. ."It's too early to discuss coalitions. We are waiting for the results," Helen Zille, the chairwoman of the DA's Federal Council, said in an interview. "We will have a meeting on Saturday and Sunday to discuss the way forward.".John Steenhuisen Photographer: Chris McGrath/Getty Images.The 112-year-old ANC led the fight against White-minority rule and has held a parliamentary majority since it won the country's first democratic election under Nelson Mandela in 1994..But its triumphant first 15 years in power was followed by an era of corruption, mismanagement and economic stagnation. Many South Africans grew disillusioned with the party's failure to fully address apartheid's legacy of racial inequality, a theme that both the MKP and EFF have hammered. .South Africa's economy grew by an average of less than 1% a year over the past decade, as widespread blackouts and decaying infrastructure crippled output. .While Ramaphosa's administration has made halting progress in addressing those challenges, it's been less successful in creating jobs, tackling crime or turning around dysfunctional municipalities — key drivers of the ANC's poor performance. .The projections by the state-run Council for Scientific and Industrial Research show that the MKP, a new party led by the charismatic Zuma has also eaten into the ANC's support, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal. Zuma was president for almost nine years before the ANC forced him to step down in 2018 and replaced him with Ramaphosa.."Until there is clarity on the make up of the next administration and the cabinet, particularly the identity of the next finance minister, there will be uncertainty," said Yvonne Mhango, Africa Economist at Bloomberg Economics. "And until that happens, the rand and the nation's bonds will trend weaker.".For now, ANC Chairman Gwede Mantashe is putting on a brave face, telling reporters that he expects the party's share of the vote to increase as more results come in. ."Let us not project now," he said. "You can't project when votes are coming in.".Read also:.Cape Town mayor warns of 'devastating' far-left coalition after electionANC-EFF coalition: A doomsday scenario for SA's future – CorriganANC support plummets: Election'24 on a coalition knife edge – Katzenellenbogen.© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

ANC’s electoral setback sparks coalition speculation in SA

Related Stories

Cathy Buckle: Zimbabwe buries democracy in plain sight

Chris Hattingh: South Africa does not have the luxury to make mistakes

The Economist: America didn't just win AI. It owns the keys.

The DA doesn't fear the ANC. It should fear what comes next