Is the GNU worth economic collapse? - Patrick McLaughlin

Key topics:

• Gwede Mantashe accused of sabotaging reform with SANPC energy project

• GNU lacks unity, mirrors ANC-era patronage and ideological dysfunction

• Investors deterred by legal chaos, poor governance, and policy instability

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By Patrick McLaughlin*

South Africa is hurtling towards economic crisis under the illusion of a “unity” government that is rapidly proving to be anything but unified. And at the centre of the dysfunction is Gwede Mantashe— observers comparing his tactics to a modern-day Jacob Zuma, master of the state-capture era redux—-now masquerading as the architect of countrywide energy and mining management.

Mantashe is not just clinging to outdated ideologies; he is actively sabotaging any hope of reform. His latest vanity project—the so-called South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC), cobbled together from the wreckage of PetroSA, including ventures allegedly bankrolled by Russian state-linked financiers. This includes folding in the R14 billion debt from the Mossgas debacle, a failed apartheid-era gas-to-liquids experiment that left the state burned once already. Clearly, the new SANPC is set to follow the same ANC path: centralised control, no accountability and politically expedient appointments.

This is not how energy infrastructure should be built. This is how a state collapses.

The GNU, meanwhile, has become a padded cell for political survivalists. Instead of uniting to rebuild the economy, the ANC for its part has surrounded itself with compliant backers, leaned on the EFF for ideological ballast, and continued with its economy based on patronage unimpeded. The Democratic Alliance remains clinging to the hope that there is strength amongst business leaders for internal reform and finds itself silenced and side-lined—John Steenhuisen reduced to defending the dysfunctional platform that the GNU has become.

Even more disappointing is the silence from voices we once trusted for clarity. Helen Zille, a figure of real political weight, appears unable—or unwilling—to acknowledge the dangers of cosying up to regimes like Iran, Russia, or China, all while the United States makes it clear that Western partnerships are not guaranteed. The GNU is already failing by association and for the very same reasons that the ANC has failed: corruption, ideological confusion, and criminal infiltration of state-linked business.

The United States’ four conditions for continued engagement with South Africa are not window dressing—they are an ultimatum demanding requirements for transparent procurement, a distancing from sanctioned regimes, credible budget management, and investor-friendly regulations.  Washington is watching closely. Yet in Pretoria, we are busy redrawing BEE scorecards and promising protectionist economic interventions that will drive away the very investors we claim to seek.

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At the heart of this crisis is the statutory and regulatory chaos that now defines our governance. BEE policies—born from noble intent—are being twisted into ever more complicated and contradictory forms. They are drafted by bureaucrats with no experience in business, pushed by department heads unfamiliar with global practice, and interpreted inconsistently.

Company secretaries across the country, tasked with compliance, are caught in a bureaucratic labyrinth. New laws are sometimes passed, sometimes not; sometimes signed, sometimes delayed, and often imposed in practice without proper publication. This is not rule of law. It is a game of roulette. Investors are left bewildered.

One exasperated investor wrote on Reddit: “Trying to invest in South Africa is like playing chess in a sandstorm. The board changes shape, the rules change mid-game, and the referee’s on lunch break.”

And all the while, incompetence flourishes. Barbara Creecy, a former finance and environment minister, now helms the transport ministry—with no logistics background, while Transnet collapses, port delays increase, and rail infrastructure rots.

The GNU is now simply a new mask on an old system: inefficient, corrupt, and blind to the signals of collapse. If Steenhuisen and others cannot bring themselves to pull out, then Parliament must act. A motion of no confidence in President Ramaphosa, at the very least, would force accountability into a vacuum now ruled by careerists.

South Africans deserve a government that works, not a revolving door of crisis managers with fading credibility.   The question is now not whether the GNU can survive.  The question is whether South Africa can afford to keep it.

*Patrick McLaughlin: Editor, parlyreportsa.