International pressure, internal paralysis, and the ANC’s last chance - Patrick McLaughlin
Key topics:
US–South Africa tensions rise over corruption, trade, and foreign policy.
ANC's internal chaos and weak leadership hinder urgent national reform.
Pressure mounts to replace race-based laws with merit-based governance.
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By Patrick McLaughlin*
The highly publicised exchange between former U.S. President Donald Trump and President Cyril Ramaphosa may have briefly drawn global attention to South Africa’s challenges — especially the rise in violent crime and the ongoing farm murders. Yet, behind the media spectacle lies a deeper concern: Is the world missing the bigger picture of South Africa’s systemic crises?
This brief worldwide media flash, while dramatic, risks reducing complex national issues to a binary narrative: is what the White House said factually correct, or not? This distraction outrageously staged in the name of President Trump could derail meaningful engagement on far more pressing economic and governance issues, and leaves international observers with an incomplete picture of South Africa’s trajectory and needs.
Unanswered Questions and International Tensions
South Africans remain largely in the dark about the substance of any follow-up to these confrontations. Was there diplomatic engagement at the White House regarding the individuals named in the State Capture Report? Will those accused of corruption — many of whom remain in government — face accountability? Will South Africa reconsider its foreign policy positioning, particularly Minister Naledi Pandor’s controversial meeting with Hamas, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organisation?
These questions matter. They affect not only foreign relations but South Africa’s eligibility for trade benefits and investment. The recent visit by Team South Africa to Washington was not ceremonial; it was about preserving critical ties with the U.S. and avoiding punitive trade measures.
Digital Progress, Political Paralysis
South Africa’s recent approval of Starlink satellite services, through a clever workaround in ICASA regulations, is a step in the right direction. It will improve internet connectivity, especially in rural areas. But it’s not a silver bullet. The rot runs deeper.
Attend any parliamentary committee and the challenges become evident: lack of financial literacy, fear of oversight, and an uncritical adherence to outdated ideological positions. These dynamics continue to produce legislation that would likely not pass scrutiny in most advanced democracies — including the Expropriation Bill, the Public Procurement Bill, and the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill.
Upcoming proposals like the BEE Transformation Fund Bill, the National State Enterprises Bill, and the South African Reserve Bank Amendment Bill further suggest a shift toward increased state control — potentially alienating South Africa from global norms and investor expectations.
Washington’s Red Lines
While there has been no formal announcement of new U.S. sanctions, it’s clear that frustrations in Washington are mounting. Multiple credible sources suggest that the U.S. is considering harsher tariffs unless South Africa demonstrates tangible reforms. The perceived “red lines” are clear:
Address Human Rights Concerns – including policing, land reform, and political violence.
Reconsider Ties with Adversaries – namely Iran, Russia, and China. This includes corporate entanglements, such as MTN’s business in Iran.
End Race-Based Policies – and align governance models with meritocratic and constitutional principles.
Negotiate a New Trade Framework – to replace or update AGOA and other trade mechanisms.
Point three — the need to transition from race-based laws to merit-based governance — will be the most politically charged. But it also presents the ANC with a possible path out of its current deadlock.
A Party at War with Itself
President Ramaphosa’s tendency to delay critical decisions, delegate responsibility to committees, and water down findings has created a leadership vacuum. Within this void, factions both inside and outside the ANC — including MK and EFF — are growing in influence, often advocating for policies that could damage the country’s long-term prospects.
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The ANC’s internal divisions are no longer manageable. Its economic policy incoherence, corruption fatigue, and poor service delivery risk alienating both voters and international allies. Meanwhile, the private sector and international partners grow increasingly nervous about South Africa’s stability and direction.
The Window Is Closing
South Africa does not have the luxury of time. With municipal elections looming in 2026, the window for meaningful reform may close as early as the next budget cycle. President Ramaphosa and the ANC must decide: does the party want to remain in power as a functional democratic actor, or does it pursue ideological rigidity and slide into irrelevance?
One immediate path forward is simple yet profound: eliminate policies that discriminate based on race and replace them with a governance model grounded in capability, accountability, and merit. This change — though politically risky — would send a strong signal to both domestic and international stakeholders that South Africa is ready to rebuild.
Conclusion
South Africa stands at a crossroads. External pressure, especially from the United States, is intensifying. Internally, the political establishment seems frozen in time. Unless bold choices are made, both the ANC and the country risk losing their footing — politically, economically, and diplomatically.
Time is not on our side. Next month may already be too late.
*Patrick McLaughlin: Editor, parlyreportsa