Co-founder of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group, Phil Craig discusses the likelihood of coalition governments in South Africa’s future and the potential for John Steenhuisenâs âMoonshot Pactâ to succeed. With the ANC’s declining support, a coalition government will likely be necessary, but the article argues that the Moonshot Pact is more likely to succeed on a provincial level rather than a national level. The Western Cape, Gauteng, and KZN are key provinces that could benefit from the Moonshot Pact’s approach. Craig also advocates for a federal system of government to address the country’s diverse regions and ensure democratic representation for all South Africans.
Federalism should be a key focus of âMoonshot Pactâ
By Phil Craig*
Like it or not, coalition governments are our new reality. John Steenhuisenâs âMoonshot Pactâ has commanded considerable attention, but there is a strong argument that the focus is on the wrong sphere of government.
The only post-2024 political certainty is that the national government will be an unholy mess.
For those inclined to disagree, and that number includes a slightly dizzying number of âpolitical analystsâ, we would recommend engaging any half-competent maths teacher to walk you through the sums.
âMoonshot mathsâ
In 2019, 48 political parties contested the national election. The biggest three parties collectively received 89% of the votes, the other forty-five shared the remaining 11%. In the likely event that the ANC falls below 50% for the first time in the democratic era, it would take nothing short of a mathematical miracle to pull together a national coalition government which didnât include the ANC or the EFF.
The âMoonshot Pactâ currently has around 33% of the vote. It is never going to capture the remaining 17% from the ANC or EFF, a point which it quietly concedes. Instead, it is banking on capturing new voters. Not only is this infinitely easier said than done, but it is mathematically significant. If the votes you are capturing arenât simultaneously being deducted from your political opponentâs tally, you need to capture twice as many.
In cold hard numbers, 3.2m fewer people need to vote ANC or EFF than in 2019, whilst simultaneously 3.9m people who didnât vote in 2019 must vote for the Moonshot coalition. Unless something utterly remarkable and entirely unprecedented happens, neither of these events will occur. A successful âmoonshotâ at national level requires both changes to succeed, and it will therefore almost certainly fail. Election analyst Dawie Scholtz took to Twitter last week to state precisely this view.
Read more: South Africaâs rise, fall, and call for accountability
Opportunities in provincial government
In the provincial sphere of government, however, the âMoonshot Pactâ has infinitely greater potential.
The Western Cape has been under DA control for three successive election cycles, and this will continue in one form or another.
In Gauteng, support for the ANC collapsed in 2021, with Action SA doing most of the damage. The âmoonshot partiesâ garnered 46% of the vote whilst the ANC and EFF combined had 48%. Polling suggests that the coalition is highly likely to capture Gauteng in 2024.
In 2021, the ANC and EFF suffered their heaviest combined losses in KZN, albeit from a loftier starting point when they collectively obtained 50% of the vote (down from 64% in 2019). The âmoonshot coalitionâ achieved 38% (up 7%), largely due to gains made by the IFP. By-election results suggest this trend is continuing, which introduces the possibility that KZN may also fall to the coalition.
This is highly significant. These three provinces form the economic hub of South Africa and between them account for 65% of South Africaâs GDP and 63% of its workforce. A situation where income is generated under provincial âmoonshot governmentsâ but spent by the ANC/EFF national government is a recipe for disaster.
Read more: DAâs Moonshot Pact to be a tale of coalitions, or not â JK
Provincial diversity
Were the âMoonshot Pactâ to capture these provinces, it is important to recognise that fundamental cultural and ideological differences would exist between these provincial governments.
The Western Cape would have a classically liberal government dominated by the ethnic minorities who form a majority in the province, and would pursue traditional Western values including freer markets, the rule of law, and genuine non-racialism including the removal of all race-based policies.
Gauteng would have a much more Afro-centric government, be business-friendly but significantly less liberal, especially when it comes to issues such as immigration, and would be much more circumspect on non-racialism and ending race-based policy.
KZN would have an African conservative government which would place far greater emphasis on traditional systems including ubuntu, community courts, traditional custodianship of land, and a draconian penal system which includes hard labour and the death penalty.
Consensus around federalism
What almost all of the âmoonshot partiesâ do agree on, however, is the need for a federal system of government. This is the real key to the success or failure of the âmoonshot pactâ.
Steenhuisen was emphatic in his speech: âI want to be unequivocal about the DAâs view on this: the day that an ANC/EFF government takes over, it will be Doomsday for South Africaâ.
A federal system of government would provide both the urgent antidote to the imminently anticipated âdoomsdayâ and address the longer-term imperative of ensuring that the diverse regions of South Africa are governed according to the democratic will of the people living in them.
The anticipated ANC/EFF government would be greatly disempowered by a federal system. It would not only devolve substantial power to the provinces, but it would also add an additional layer of constitutional protection against the radical and foolhardy crusades which any ANC/EFF government would inevitably embark upon.
Read more: Nelson Mandela Bayâs opposition coalition: A beacon of stability in SA
Western Cape holds key to federalism
The Western Cape, where the provincial parliament is already under the control of the âMoonshot Pactâ, is key to delivering federal government. The foundations can and must be laid before 2024.
Federalism would require a change in the South African Constitution. Changes to the Constitution are governed by section 74 which requires that any proposed amendments must have the support of a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and the support of six out of nine provinces in the National Council of Provinces (NCOP). In the current political dispensation, with the ANC and EFF both vehemently opposed to federalism, a national federalism bill cannot be passed.
The key to delivering federalism therefore lies, initially at least, in the provincial parliaments.
Read more: CIAG congratulates Steenhuisen but sceptical over âMoonshotâ
Self-determination is an undeniable right
The Constitution recognises the right to self-determination, and, since 1994, South Africa has signed and ratified three international covenants which guarantee that right. Both the ANC and the South African national government have repeatedly spoken out in support of the principle, most recently in the cases of Palestine, the Western Sahara, and Eastern Ukraine.
Were the people of a province to use their provincial parliament to declare their desire for self-determination, South Africa would be legally obliged to grant it. Under international law, the right to self-determination is âinalienable and undeniableâ.
According to a recent report to the UN General Assembly, the default application of self-determination is âFederalism with a high degree of autonomyâ.
Were a province to claim self-determination and then claim provincial federalism in the national assembly, it would still require a two-thirds majority, but it would in effect be illegal for Parliament to deny this request. Should Parliament do so, the province could approach the Constitutional Court and ask it to compel Parliament to pass the provincial federal legislation.
Precedents in internal law
The Constitutional Court should find it almost impossible to ignore such a request, given the legal precedents which have been established internationally on the subject of self-determination. These are, most notably, the Supreme Court of Canadaâs landmark judgement on Quebec, and the UK Supreme Courtâs judgement on Scotland which strengthened the Canadian judgement. On this basis, the province would have a reasonable chance of success.
Were the Western Cape to embark upon this federalism process before 2024, then any other provinces which fall under the control of the âMoonshot Pactâ after 2024 could simply follow suit.
Not only would this neutralise the greatest threat of any ANC/EFF national government, but it would provide a much more viable long-term solution for governance in South Africa. The âMoonshot Pactâ may be united around removing the ANC and keeping the EFF out of power, but its members have significant ideological differences. As we have seen in the metropoles, it is after the ANC has been unseated that the real work begins. A federal South Africa is infinitely more viable than a unitary state.
*Phil Craig is a family man, a serial entrepreneur and a co-founder of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group. He is working towards the creation of the âCape of Good Hopeâ, a first world country at Africaâs southern tip, bringing freedom, security and prosperity to all who live there, regardless of their race, religion and culture.
This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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