Despite Washington’s warm reception of South Africa’s GNU trade delegation, no shift in South Africa’s foreign policies on Palestine, Ukraine, or relations with Russia, China, and Iran is expected. The ANC remains firmly in control of foreign policy, including its stance against Israel, with R20 million allocated for related litigation. The GNU’s quick formation impressed U.S. officials, but actual policy changes remain uncertain. The outcome of AGOA renewal will hinge on U.S. politics and future negotiations.
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By John Matisonn
Washington’s warm embrace of South Africa’s GNU trade delegation last month does not signal any change in South African foreign policies on Palestine, Ukraine or relations with Russia, China or Iran. At least not yet. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
ANC negotiators for the GNU were adamant that exclusive ANC control of foreign policy was a thick red line in the GNU talks. That line has not been crossed.
The ANC were adamant that touching the ANC’s foreign policy was off limits. Primary among the ANC’s policies to be protected against coalition dilution was South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and R20million has recently been allocated to the DIRCO budget for such litigation..
The negotiators insisted that Minister of International Relations and Cooperation (Foreign Minister) and his two deputies would all remain firmly in ANC hands. Even the position of chairperson of the parliamentary portfolio committee on the department had to be filled by an ANC MP.
This led to an anomalous scene in the committee when DA spokesperson on foreign policy, Emma Powell, insisted her abstention on the election of the ANC chair be noted, despite the DA membership in the joint government.
The ANC candidate for re-election as chair was Supra Mahumapela, the controversial former premier of the Northwest who was sanctioned by the ANC for misconduct in 2021.
By contrast with the DA’s disapproval, ex-President Jacob Zuma’s daughter Duduzile Sambudla-Zuma, Powell’s opposite number on the committee in the anti-GNU MK Party, had no such reservations. She gave Mahumapela’s election a standing ovation! Mahumapela was a staunch ally of her father and a member of the premiers’ league, which backed her father in the Zuma era.
Newly appointed ANC Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau led this early trip to Washington that included DA deputy trade and industry minister Andrew Whitfield with the avowed intention of resetting South Africa’s troubled relationship with the US.
Reports that Biden administration officials as well as both Republicans and Democrats in congress had received the delegation extremely warmly led to suggestions that South Africa’s foreign policy may have changed.
But Tau, while looking for that response, had a purely trade brief, and could not discuss wider foreign policy questions without the new International Relations Minister, Ronald Lamola, who was not on this trip.
They were in Washington to show a united front lobbying to keep US trade concessions in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is up for renewal next year. Tau and Whitfield argued for an early renewal for an extended period.
Both Tau and Whitfield returned thrilled with their reception and confident renewal of South Africa’s concessions is on track.
The American welcome to the delegation was indeed extremely positive. Old US foreign policy hands have become used to acrimonious and time-consuming negotiations when other democracies failed to produce a majority party, including cases in Europe.
They found South Africa’s rapid formation of its coalition with its adversaries a refreshing contrast. This positive response reflected not only their spontaneous appreciation but also the fact that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which South Africa is lobbying to stay in, earmarks trade benefits for African countries that are a democracies.
There was genuine delight that South Africa pulled off a GNU within the 14day legislative deadline, especially by contrast to the US own divided politics, where such a sleek and peaceful agreement between the parties seems unthinkable. Imagine if Donald Trump and Kamala Harris had to negotiate a shared government?
The appearance of the DA was also welcomed since the DA’s policies are very close to those Washington’s on Israel, Russia and China – and Iran. The DA has also vowed to take South Africa out of BRICS + now that Iran is included.
Washington’s volatile politics could still affect final passage of AGOA’s renewal. There is a chance the congress could bring it to the floor in September when they return from recess, or even in the lame duck period after the November election and before the new administration takes office.
On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump seems likely to win in November and strengthen the Republicans in the House of Representatives and Senate, interest in a quick AGOA renewal might wane.
There is a possibility that the influence of opposition members in cabinet and a new International Relations Minister could smooth some of the rough edges of the policy which has needlessly antagonized the US in recent years.
The formal language of the GNU agreement on foreign policy is vague enough to provide little guidance, providing that foreign policy will be “based on human rights, constitutionalism, the national interest solidarity, peaceful resolution of conflicts, north-south and African co-operation, multilateralism and a just, peaceful and equitable world.”
Most of those aims can be interpreted in various ways. Clearly, “solidarity” to the ANC means solidarity with its former liberation movement allies, include Palestine. How the DA will interpret that is likely to differ, but they will have few levers to pull in foreign policy.
Read also:
- 🔒 SA’s play-all-sides approach to foreign policy is working – so far…
- The mess that is SA’s foreign policy: A minefield of contradictions, isolating from the West – Katzenellenbogen
- Donald MacKay on SA foreign policy: Impact of AGOA is overstated, neutral stance in SA’s best interest
