John Matisonn: Mashatile’s presidential alliance

The race to succeed South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is heating up, with Deputy President Paul Mashatile emerging as the frontrunner. Mashatile's political base, known as the "Gauteng mafia," mirrors Jacob Zuma's rise to power in 2007. However, corruption allegations and the ongoing political realignment after the ANC's 2024 coalition government shakeup may affect his path. Rival contenders like Ronald Lamola and Fikile Mbalula add to the uncertainty of this critical leadership battle..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By John Matisonn .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Listen to the story in full.The battle to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa as president has begun, and his deputy, Paul Mashatile, may already have the outlines of an alliance similar to the one that propelled Jacob Zuma to victory over Thabo Mbeki in 2007..Proof that the battle has begun came from ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula's recent warning that it was wrong for ANC members to participate in what he called "position mongering." for the ANC presidency this early. The ANC will choose its next president at a conference in 2027..As deputy president of the party and the country, Mashatile is already the frontrunner, unless he is derailed by investigations and side-lined before then –a definite possibility..In the course of his rise to power, he was investigated for corruption and cleared several times while in the Gauteng executive, but new allegations related to a conspicuously expensive lifestyle have been aired by investigative journalists and DA parliamentarians..These are early stirrings of change against the background of a fundamental political realignment expected in the wake of the 2024 p0litical earthquake, when the ANC lost its majority and chose to form a coalition government with the DA as its major partner..Mashatile's opponents could include Ronald Lamola, former Justice Minister who Ramaphosa this year elevated to the International Relations portfolio, which most governments regard the their most senior appointment. This appointment may indicate he has Ramaphosa's backing. .Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi ruled himself out of the race recently, in comments which were interpreted as a sign he will back Mashatile, who is considered part of the "Gauteng mafia" that constitutes Mashatile's political base. Lesufi could be aiming to be deputy president. The other name mentioned is Mbalula. .On his podcast SMWX this week political commentator Size Mphofu-Walsh said Mashatile "may be the figurehead that the South African Communist Party and the union federation Cosatu support." .Zuma's successful bid to beat Thabo Mbeki in 2007 was built on his provincial base, which was KwaZulu-Natal, with the SACP, Cosatu, (and the youth and women's leagues.) .Zuma capitalised on disgruntlement among these left-wing alliance partners, as Mbeki's move to the centre once president..For Mashatile, instead of KwaZulu-Natal he has Gauteng. There, Mashatile's leadership of the so-called Gauteng Mafia, or Alexandra Mafia, is his political base. .Lesufi, leader of the anti-DA faction of the party, has made clear his preference for an ANC realignment from the DA to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Mkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP). .But Mashatile's preferred partner may well remain a mystery until after the election of party leader is over. It is unlikely that Mashatile – or any other major candidate from that faction – will be explicit about which party they would choose as a main partner, just as Zuma did not announce that if he won he would implement State Capture..Mashatile is known to play his cards closer to his chest. He has left enough ambiguous signals that it is not impossible that he would choose to maintain the current configuration. He is well aware of the boost to business confidence that has accompanied the DA partnership, but his personal ties with the EFF are much stronger..The ANC is undergoing an historic metamorphosis. In 1912 it began as a coalition between a new generation of university-educated black professionals who also respected traditional African leadership. Even Mandela started his career opposing communist or white participation in the ANC. .During the anti-apartheid era, communists played a powerful role and Marxist study for aspirant leaders was routine. The return towards the centre was underlined in 1990, when Thabo Mbeki, who had been chairperson of the SACP, quietly resigned, along with several ambitious leaders of the movement..It would be hard to exaggerate the significance of those resignations, but they did not change the ethos and language of the party, which still commonly uses Marxist slogans, even when describing its campaign to build a black middle class with incentives for black share ownership..Read also:.🔒 John Matisonn: Lesufi for President? Seriously?🔒 ANC's election disaster puts Ramaphosa's leadership in jeopardyRamaphosa's leadership didn't impress voters, but seeking consensus may be what a GNU needs

John Matisonn: Mashatile’s presidential alliance

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