Mathews Phosa, former ANC leader and MK commander, predicts a steep decline in ANC support to 26%-29% by 2029, with the Mkhonto weSize Party poised to gain ground if the government fails to deliver. In his book Witness to Power, Phosa critiques corruption, state capture, and AIDS denialism for the ANC’s woes. He envisions a new party of educated, entrepreneurial voters seeking honest leadership, potentially transforming South African politics by the next municipal elections.
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By John Matisonn ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
ANC voter support will fall to between 26% and 29% in the 2029 elections, and the Mkhonto weSize Party will flourish if government can’t dramatically improve deliver, Mathews Phosa, former Mpumalanga premier and ANC leader, told eNCA this week.
Phosa, 72, a practicing commercial lawyer and businessman, was an MK commander and legal adviser to the ANC at Codesa before the first democratic elections in 1994. He has been in and out of the ANC’s NEC leadership since leaving government, and remains a party member.
But in his new book, Witness to Power, Phosa opens the door to establishing a new political party, implying that the ANC is proving unable to course correct.
As well as blaming corruption and incompetence, Phosa is more frank than his colleagues in blaming AIDS denialism and paranoia among ANC leaders for the party’s decline. Both are a clear reference to the presidency of Thabo Mbeki.
“My view is the ANC will decline further in the years leading up to the next general election,” Phosa wrote. “The MKP will flourish as long as the government dithers on delivery, and in the process Julius Malema’s EFF will steadily lose support.
“I won’t be surprised if (MKP) sweep most of the local governments in KwaZulu-Natal” at the next local elections.
In a recent interview, Jacob Zuma vowed to “take over” the ANC, a move that has been described as a “reverse takeover” of the governing party.
When Mbeki was president, his government accused Phosa, Cyril Ramaphosa and former Gauteng premier Tokyo Sexwale, of plotting to stage a coup and spreading rumours that Mbeki was involved in the murder of Chris Hani, former leader of the ANC military and of the Communist Party.
Mbeki launched an eight-month investigation under then police commissioner Jackie Selebi, which concluded that the allegations were “devoid of any truth.”
Phosa, 72, has opened the door to establishing a new party, implying that the ANC may not be able to repair itself.
“The reasons for the decline were clear for all to see: endemic corruption, unchecked crime, state capture, AIDS denialism, paranoia, a lack of decisive leadership, and inefficient administration through the deployment of unqualified or corrupt cadres.
“Organisations fail or survive as a direct result of fearless, honest and goal-orientated leadership.”
Clearly thinking about establishing a new party, he wrote:
“The current and future decline of ANC support among the majority of voters leaves a tantalizing question: Is there space for a new party that can mobilise the support of the new generation of educated, ambitious, entrepreneurial voters who yearn for honest, effective and inclusive government?”
“Voters proved in the 2024 election that they have become sophisticated, and neither the ANC nor other parties illustrated that they understood this. …There is a yearning for leadership that places country above party, and delivery above empty, angry, inedible words.
“I therefor think that we will see the coming together of like-minded leaders who can transfer their success in other spheres of society into the political realm.
“It would be interesting if such a new formation is tested as soon as the next municipal election.”
“I stand ready to make a contribution, again, to see the Rainbow Nation soar. It is my duty, and yours, to answer the call, if and when it comes.”
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