John Matisonn: December’s by-election results provide pointers to SA’s changing electorate

Political developments from recent by-elections reveal mixed outcomes. GNU-aligned parties, including the ANC and DA, gained optimism, while non-GNU groups like the EFF underperformed. In Thabazimbi, the Labour Party made a surprise debut, but the municipality remains plagued by service delivery failures, mounting debt, and resident pessimism amidst political instability..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here.By John Matisonn___STEADY_PAYWALL___.The political shake-out in local by-elections continues, with political parties in the Government of National Unity (GNU) benefitting from the GNU's positive reputation, while several surprises have shown up in the "opposition" camp..The ANC, DA, IFP and PA all came out of recent by-elections with grounds for optimism, while the non-GNU MKP and EFF did not meet their own expectations. And a new non-ANC party won surprising support in Thabazimbi, in Limpopo, gaining two seats..The dysfunctional town of Thabazimbi elected a hung council with the ANC drawing ten out of the 24 seats, but was able to elect an ANC mayor unopposed, apparently because the DA honoured its commitment to GNU partners in the expectation of representation on the executive committee..The new mayor, Tumisang Pilane, is a long-time ANC local leader who has never been on the council but worked for five years in the municipality. He rose to local secretary of the SA Municipal Workers Union and held several positions in the local ANC executive. .But a new entrant to the political field achieved early success. Two councillors were elected from the Labour Party, recently formed by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union's (Amcu), a trade union that is not affiliated to the ANC or its federation Cosatu. The Labour Party is yet to formulate its platform and make it available for public scrutiny. In Ward 3 the ANC, which commanded over 70% of the vote in 2021, lost to the Labour Party. .Thabazimbi's political turmoil is not over, after one MKP councillor resigned last week, requiring yet another by-election. .Deputy President Paul Mashatile called the ANC's latest showing the start of a "big recovery", but a lot is likely to change over the two years leading to the next local elections. Mashatile played down the ongoing difficulties in the party's Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal executives, where a decision on whether to reconstitute them has again been postponed, this time until January, despite their dismal showing in national elections..And the Communist Party decided at its weekend congress that it will contest the 2026 local elections under its own banner for the first time, after three decades canvassing for the ANC, but it will do so without leaving the ANC-led tripartite alliance..Meanwhile, the EFF's elective congress bore the scars of division, as the aftershock of its loss of voters and MPs to the MKP reverberated..Meanwhile, the MKP's minor by-election setbacks do not signal the end of the sphynx of Nkandla as a political force. Ex-President Jacob Zuma, leader of the MKP, is using all the spycraft he learnt in the Soviet Union to "turn" current ANC, EFF and IFP members towards MKP, with considerable success so far. .While ANC supporters see his rapid turnover of officials hired and fired in party posts as permanent chaos, it may be a calculated testing of people till he has the ones that suit him. With a deliberate choice not to allow the democratic election of party officials, he has all the power in the party, and so far it's working for him. .The bottom line is that the real test of the GNU is yet to come. The jury remains out on whether the GNU can produce real, job-creating growth. The GNU has maintained sufficient forward momentum for the first 150 days, but nothing like enough to last two years until local elections, let alone to the next national election in 2029..Back in Thabazimibi, while politicians flailed, communities went without basic needs such as water, electricity, and waste collection during a heat wave. Sewerage spilled into many streets and public spaces. And the municipality spend over R15 million on legal challenges in the Polokwane High Court up to the Supreme Court of Appeal, while staff went unpaid for months, and the municipality's debt to Eskom hit R300 million and R180 million to Magalies Water. .One report quoted residents expressed pessimism, citing councillors' lateness at the inaugural meeting. "If they arrive late on their first council meeting, how are they going to provide service delivery on time?" said a resident. .Read also:.Gayton McKenzie: From a prisoner in chains to a popular politician to a possible president…Sean McLaughlin: Brexit parallels with Cape Independence (and why it belongs in the bin)Post-election appetite for South African exposure sees JSE shares soar