Gauteng: The DA’s final frontier in the battle for SA – Sean McLaughlin
Sean McLaughlin unpacks the complex dynamics of governing Gauteng, South Africa's most populous and urbanized province. With the Democratic Alliance (DA) navigating coalition challenges and an evolving political landscape, Gauteng remains a litmus test for centrist leadership. Highlighting key election trends, inter-party relations, and the province's pivotal role, McLaughlin explores the prospects for effective governance amidst shifting alliances. A must-read for understanding South Africa's political and municipal intricacies.
Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.
The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here.
Johannesburg: Between decline and renewal. Generated by the author using OpenAI
By Sean McLaughlin*
It is not true that the DA 'does not want to govern in Gauteng'.
That argument ignores how difficult it is to govern in SA's most mysterious province.
The prerequisites to govern effectively – reliable coalition partners or an outright majority – are hard for the DA to achieve in that province.
The centrist Democratic Alliance (DA) is South Africa's second largest party, and until recently taking up national government, the leader of the opposition.
If the DA were to go into government in Gauteng without these conditions, it would likely lead to collapse, damage the prospects of the party, the political centre, and democracy more generally.
This all applies to the Gauteng Provincial Legislature, or any of the province's constituent municipalities.
I believe that the DA can turn around the province and its municipalities, if given the numbers.
Though there are capable and hardworking members of the African National Congress (ANC), the party leadership in that province has proven inept.
It is also lacking to say that the DA – the country's leading centrist party – is not willing to govern in the most urbanised province. That is where its target voter demographics are found in highest concentrations – the city-dwelling, the metropolitan, the ambitious.
As put by Cilliers Brink, the ousted Mayor of the City of Tshwane (Pretoria) on BizNews on 1 November,
"… the growth of the DA is Gauteng… The City of Tshwane has got more DA voters than Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the North West put together."
The DA attained 21.81% of the vote at the national election in May. The ANC lost its majority for the first time with 40.18% of the vote. The two formed a coalition named the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Gauteng is one of SA's nine provinces, the most populous at 15.1m.
Gauteng contains nine local governments (municipalities), including the administrative capital city of Pretoria (City of Tshwane) and the country's economic hub of Johannesburg.
Municipalities of Gauteng Province
Generated by the author using Tableau
The dynamics within and between the key political actors can differ greatly from one municipality to another and differ again at a provincial and national level.
Given Gauteng's urbanised nature, the provincial government is uniquely important in this case as it serves the role of coordinator between municipalities.
'The three big provinces'
SA has three levels of representative government:
- Municipal (257 local councils)
- Provincial (9 legislatures)
- National
I have heard many from all walks of life conflate the former two. National and Provincial Elections (NPEs) take place concurrently and in a different year to Local Government Elections (LGEs).
Leading into the election of this year (national and provincial), it was frequently stated that in 2024 the 'three big provinces' would finally fall to opposition hands, or coalitions. Those are the Western Cape (WC), KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng. That is, 'big' in terms of GDP, population, access to state resources, patronage, but also political capital from good governance to showcase.
The other six provinces are more rural and less impactful in the national political picture.
Generated by the author using Python
Little mentioned is that a coalition was formed in the Northern Cape in 2024, with the ANC leaning on the one seat of the Freedom Front +, a largely Afrikaner minority party.
If the ANC continues a downward trend, a similar pact may form in the Free State by 2029.
The ANC came close to losing its majority in Mpumalanga and may do so in 2029, but it is unclear who it would work with there.
It will remain strong in the remainder (North West, Limpopo, Eastern Cape).
So, the WC has been in the hands of the ex-opposition since 2009. (And in the post-liberation world of coalitions, the DA beat the odds to hold its majority there in 2024).
KwaZulu-Natal
The second of these 'big' provinces, KZN, saw the ANC decimated from 54% of the provincial vote in 2019 to 16.99% in 2024.
That was largely due to the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) breakaway party led by former President Zuma, which attained a whopping 45.35% of the provincial vote.
KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Election 2019
Results obtained from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) and displayed by the author using Parliamentdiagram
KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Election 2024
Results obtained from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) and displayed by the author using Parliamentdiagram
Results obtained from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) and displayed by the author using Parliamentdiagram
A four-party coalition (on the right-hand side of the above chart) was able to form a coalition and take office with a one seat majority, denying MK its base province.
Those parties are:
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP – a Zulu ethnonationalist, centrist party)
- ANC
- DA
- National Freedom Party (NFP – an IFP breakaway)
This is an astounding case of 'every-vote-counts' – in SA's most historically violent province.
The DA will be pleased with its two muscular portfolios in KZN: Finance and Public Works & Infrastructure.
That counters claims that the DA avoids governing outside the Western Cape. It is now managing the province's finances and involved in a head on a battle with the construction mafia in its stronghold province. A DA Member of the Provincial Executive Committee (MEC) recently found a bullet in his car.
The centre holding
As the largest party in the coalition, the IFP deserves credit for an orderly transition to a new Government of Provincial Unity (GPU) – a quieter success of the 2024 elections. DA Federal Chairperson Helen Zille said this was among the easiest negotiations of her long career.
My sense is that the ANC's staggering loss of 27.23% or (30/80 seats) created a 'no-nonsense' attitude to keeping the anti-constitutionalists out.
The coalition may hold as it commands 50% '+1' of the seats in the province (41/80). Small party the NFP holds the balance of power with its one seat. If the NFP 'switched sides' to the EFF and MK, that alliance would still fall short of a majority (40).
A side switch that would command the numbers would thus require one of the three larger to change sides. The DA is ideologically opposed to MK, as is the centre-right IFP. Those two parties have a history of deep collaboration in the province and such a move by either would sour the relationship.
That leaves the ANC. Tying its fortunes to a provincial-based party that may well implode is not a survival strategy.
It was rumoured in November 2024 that the ANC was considering side switching to MK. Bizarre potshots were fired between coalition partners.
Yet ANC provincial chairperson Siboniso Duma later dismissed a side switch as a fake news story, and that the GPU will see out the term as the seventh administration. He said on 4 November 2024:
"Broadly speaking, we are happy with the performance of the [GPU] … however, … our participation in the [GPU] does not … imply that we will sacrifice the identity and values of the ANC … every week we analyse the political environment under which we operate …"
For now, the coalition holds in the garden province.
SA has largely passed the test of the 'liberation movement sharing power'.
One last 'big' province remains: Gauteng.
Read also:
*Sean McLaughlin is a Political Scientist and Data Analyst.
Previously, he has worked for data and news providers Wood Mackenzie and Acuris.
He holds a degree in Arabic and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, as well as a degree in Data Science for Business, from Stirling University, both in Scotland.