Martin Wolf: America's 250th birthday finds it dismantling the world order it built

Martin Wolf's sweeping essay for our partners at The Financial Times traces the arc of American hegemony — from industrial superpower to undisputed post-Cold War victor — and asks how the triumph unravelled so fast. His answer: China's rise, the digital revolution, and right-wing populism have combined to shatter the unipolar moment within just 35 years. Wolf is scathing about the current administration — corrupt, incompetent, and hostile to the founding fathers' values. Trump, he argues, is cutting the very sinews of US power: rule of law, science, alliances, stability. The world America built is disappearing. And this time, nobody is stepping in to replace it..By Martin Wolf.On the eve of its 250th birthday, America and the world order it created are in crisisThe US was the victor of the 20th century. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it not only possessed unmatched political and economic power, but embodied admired values of constitutional government and freedom. This did not last.To understand why it triumphed and how it failed one must go back at least to the 19th century. In the middle of that century, European powers — notably the UK, possessor of a vast empire and the power of steam — ruled the planet. Then, in the years leading up to 1914, the “second industrial revolution” occurred, with the US in the lead. Advances included chemicals, electricity, telephony, pharmaceuticals, the internal combustion engine, powered flight and radio. Big changes occurred, not least an era of globalisation.There were also shifts in the balance of power. Within Europe, the most important event was the rise of imperial Germany. Another was the rise of Japan. Yet the biggest change of all was the rise of the US. By 1914, it had become much the world’s biggest economy. The struggle for mastery in Europe between the rising power of Germany and the incumbent powers of the UK, France and imperial Russia was not the central question they thought it was. It was rather when the US would become the dominant power.By the end of the first world war, the US was the master of Europe. Unfortunately, it supported a peace that its subsequent withdrawal made unenforceable. Its abdication, together with the domestic political upheavals, the inflations of the 1920s and the mass unemployment of the Depression, led to the second world war.This time was different, however. Partly stimulated by its competition with Soviet communism (itself the fruit of 19th-century ideological ferment and the destruction of the Russian imperial system), the US stayed engaged. Thus started the cold war. In this conflict Europe was divided, the western part became dependent upon the US, the European empires disappeared and a social democratic consensus emerged. Laissez-faire had gone. Managed capitalism was the new order. Despite the “neoliberal” revolution of the 1980s, it remained the order. The way it was managed was merely tweaked somewhat..Between 1989 and 1991 the Soviet Union and its empire collapsed. The US called its triumph over the totalitarian ideologies of fascism and communism and all its geopolitical rivals — Germany, Japan, the British empire and the Soviet Union — the “unipolar moment”. History laughs. Within 35 years of its triumph, the US role as a stabilising hegemon has disappeared, just as that of the UK had done by 1900. Again, the changes that have been transforming order into disorder and victory into defeat are simultaneously economic, technological and political.The most important were the rise of China, the digital revolution and the triumph of rightwing populism.China was weaned away from its alliance with Russia in the 1970s. Soon afterwards, Deng Xiaoping chose “reform and opening up”. Another superpower emerged. The US had a peer competitor for the first time in over a century. As in the 19th and early 20th centuries, a liberal era, this time led by the US, promoted a second globalisation, turbocharged by disruptive information and communications technologies.Other upheavals include financial crises and mass migration. Again, as before the first world war, there have been big social and political changes, partly triggered by (and triggering) political struggles. In the late 19th century, these were dominated by demands of class and nation. This time they have been more demands of gender, race and identity. In both cases, conservative (and nationalist) counter-revolutions arose.Today, on the eve of its 250th birthday, the US and the world order it created are in crisis. In the US, the administration is corrupt, incompetent and, most important, hostile to the norms and values that animated the founding fathers. The Declaration of Independence proclaimed liberation from tyrants. Donald Trump wants to be one. Worse, he is cutting the sinews of US power — the rule of law, world-leading science, trusted alliances and confidence in its economic and political stability. A government of whims is replacing one of laws. In the world, democracy has been in retreat for two decades: according to V-Dem, just 7 per cent of the world’s population now lives in liberal democracies. Xi Jinping can smile.This world echoes that of the years before 1914. So, how might it end?The good news is that nuclear weapons hugely reduce the threat of war between the great powers. Moreover, no major power today suffers from the militarism of the early 20th century and the even more insane militarism of the 1930s and 1940s. Again, the good news is that today’s governments are still mostly expected to ensure the prosperity of their peoples. The unparalleled economic growth of the post-second world war era has encouraged a demand for even more of that prosperity, more or less everywhere..The bad news is that we confront a host of challenges that can only be met together. The global environment is one. Yet another is managing the implications of revolutionary new technologies, notably AI. Not least, there is once again the question of whether arbitrary despotism will become the global norm or freedom and democracy still thrive.The world many of us hoped for some 35 years ago, after the collapse of Soviet despotism, the world the US largely created, is disappearing. So, too, at least for a while, is that US. We do learn from history. But then, alas, we forget..© 2026 The Financial Times Ltd..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Martin Wolf: America's 250th birthday finds it dismantling the world order it built

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