Being the main opposition party in South Africa must be a depressing business. You go out there, you try, and you never seem to make any real headway against the behemoth that is the ANC. The whole thing brings to mind the aphorism about performing a certain bodily function in opposition to a stiff breeze. But, if you believe in competitive democracy, as the Democratic Alliance seems to do, you have no choice but to keep plugging away, hoping that something will work. Which brings us to the DA’s latest strategic move – brining South Africa elderstateswoman Mamphela Ramphele on board as their presidential candidate. As Independent Group opinion and analysis editor Vukani Mde points out, this move has its roots in the idea that the reason the DA is struggling to gain ground is its lack of black faces in leadership posts. By bringing in Ramphele, the DA is hoping to darken its ranks and thus win votes. Mde is skeptical about the strategy, but others think that it’s a smart move, and one that might bring the DA one step closer to being a genuine opposition party. – FD
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GUGULETHU MFUPHI: Interesting alliances as well as events are unfolding in the run up to South Africa’s fifth democratic elections due to take place in April this year. Vukani Mde who is the Group opinion & Analyst Editor at Independent Group joins us now for more insight. Vukani, perhaps you picked up on the announcement made a short while ago by the Democratic Alliance, mentioning that Dr Mamphela Ramphele, who was formerly with Agang, has now been elected as their Presidential Candidate in these elections. What do you make of this?
VUKANI MDE: Good afternoon, Gugu. First of all, it’s a misnomer that she was elected as the Presidential Candidate. There wasn’t an election. She has been selected by the DA membership to stand as their Presidential election. I would venture to guess that many grassroots DA supporters had no notion that this was coming. They were as surprised as you and I were. What do I make of it? Well, I suppose you have to try everything. The South African opposition, particularly those opposition parties that seek to oppose the ANC from the right of the political spectrum, have tried all manner of things since 1994 and none of it has worked. There is this notion that what the DA has a problem with, is its racial makeup and that if only if the DA remains the same, but were led by more black faces – more black people would go for it. I, for one, don’t buy it, but they seem to be convinced by it, so I’m quite willing to watch them try.
ALEC HOGG:  Vukani, that’s very interesting. You say they haven’t made any progress, yet in every election, the DA’s percentage of the total vote has been rising. How do you justify that statement?
VUKANI MDE: The DA’s total percentage of the vote has been fluctuating. It hasn’t been rising, so it hasn’t been going in one direction only. The DA is an amalgamation of the old Democratic Party, which got two percent of the elections in 1994 – the first Democratic elections – on the one hand, and the National Party on the other hand, which got 22 percent in our first national elections. The combined total of the two parties as the DA, which happened only in 1999, has never risen above 16 percent as far as I know so I’m not sure how we can say they have been rising through every election.
GUGULETHU MFUPHI: What are your expectations then, coming up to these elections? Do you think that Mamphela, on board with the DA, that we could see that number rise?
VUKANI MDE: I think the DA’s percentage of the vote might rise modestly, not quite as much as most people would make out, but I’m not sure that’s going to have anything to do with Mamphela Ramphele. Keep in mind that Agang is a one-year-old party. It has never been tested in any electoral fight. It has failed to gather any sort of momentum since its foundation just under a year ago, and so I’m not sure that the DA is going to bring a mass vote to Agang. In fact, what is going to happen, is that Mamphela Ramphele’s acceptable black face is being brought to the DA’s policy platform. Whether or not that’s going to deliver votes for the DA remains to be seen.
ALEC HOGG:  Vukani, the reason I asked a moment ago was because Ferial Haffajee whom I think you know quite well – the Editor of City Press – tweeted this morning to say that the DA scored 12 percent in 2004 and 16.7 percent in 2009. The early view is over 20 percent in the coming election, which, to me, seems like a trend. I’m a financial journalist, so I don’t pay as much attention to this, but it certainly seems to be a trend in an upward direction. Are you saying that Ferial has her numbers wrong?
FYI: DA scored 12.3% in 2004 and 16.7% in 2009 elections. My early view? 20 – 23% for Dagang, but I haven’t seen party polls.
— Ferial Haffajee (@ferialhaffajee) January 28, 2014
VUKANI MDE: I don’t think that she has her numbers wrong. I just think that I am counting from… We’ve only had about five national elections. You can throw in the local government elections as well if you want, but you have to start in 1994 or at the very least, in 1999, when this new political party known as the DA, started. You can’t only look at the 2009 election, which was the ANC’s first Zuma election, as it were, so if you want to look at trends you have to look at a far more representative timeline than Ferial is using.
