Gareth v Onselen: Bullshit baffled their brains – ‘Bonkers’ pre-election predictions

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Gareth van Onselen reflects on the most bonkers pre-election ’24 predictions and compares them to the realities of the election outcomes. He is the CEO of Victory Research, an international market research company. His work focuses on electoral trends, voter behaviour, and political party dynamics, providing insights into the challenges and strategies of major South African political parties. You can follow him on X at @GvanOnselen.

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By Gareth van Onselen

Prediction Reality
“Well, I am here in Nkomazi [Mpumalanga], I have observed that the people here in Nkomazi support the ANC, and much as we wanted 85% support or voter support here, they say they will give us 90%. So I am expecting a very high vote from Nkomazi, from Mpumalanga.” Cyril Ramaphosa, 22 May 2024ANC vote share in Mpumalanga dropped 19.4 pts from 70.6% to 51,2%.
Prediction Reality
“What’s an election all about? Bussing people to the poll, feeding them on the day, wearing the T-shirts and having posters up over a reasonably long period of time, which give people a feeling: this political party is for real and for long term. It’s as simple as that. And he [Zuma] doesn’t have his logistics in place. In fact, all the busses and all the taxis have already been booked by the ANC/DA. So, Zuma won’t get over 10%. There’s no way. I mean I think 6/7 if he is lucky.” Rob Hersov, 10 April 2024MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. It won 45.4% in KwaZulu-Natal and 1.6m votes, reducing the ANC from 54% to 17%.
Prediction Reality
“I’ve made ten predictions on your show, not one of them were wrong… I’m saying to you that, the Western Cape, I don’t think the Democratic Alliance will reach 35% in the Western Cape. I’m telling you.” Gayton McKenzie, 28 April 2024DA won 55.3% in the Western Cape, 20 pts more than 35%.
Prediction Reality
“I do think, the surprise factor in this election – and it’s not even arrogance speaking, I mean in two days I will stake my reputation. I have made ten predictions… nine predictions on your show, and all nine of them were spot on; all nine predictions I made on your show, Alec, it turned out the way I told you it was going to turn out. I’m saying to you now: watch the Patriotic Alliance. No party is going to grow as big as Patriotic Alliance will grow, from 6,600 votes to more than 500,000 votes.” Gayton McKenzie, 27 May 2024PA won 2.1% or 330k votes, finishing in 6th place. MK grew the fastest, with 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes – 3m more votes than the PA.
Prediction Reality
“The current [prediction] is around 57%. We are gunning for an overwhelming majority.” Gwen Ramokgopa, 14 April 2024ANC declined 17.4pts, from 57.5% to 40.1%, losing its national majority, around 3.6m votes and 30% of its support.
Prediction Reality
“At the moment we are going to get 8%, conservatively. If you ask me on a good day what will we get, I think 12%. We just want to beat the EFF.” Gayton McKenzie, 10 April 2024PA won 2.1% or 330k votes, finishing in 6th place, behind the IFP (3.9%) and the EFF (9.5%).
Prediction Reality
“If he [Zuma] had said he is going to vote for the EFF, would have been a very serious boost for us, we would be very happy. So now he decides to go and vote for non-existing things, and that is not going to help us, in the process of displacing the ANC. President Zuma is in denial.” Julius Malema, 6 January 2024MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. It won 45.4% in KwaZulu-Natal and 1.6m votes, reducing the ANC from 54% to 17%. The EFF won 2.3% in KwaZulu-Natal, a decline of 7.5pts from 9.8% in 2019.
Prediction Reality
“We are doing well in our campaign in this province, the enthusiasm that prevails among our people, is at a very high level. Our people are energised, our volunteers, all over the Western Cape, we do believe that we are going to attain a victory in this province. This issues of the ICJ – issues that of course that are up in the air – and people are appreciative of the stance that has been taken by the ANC, and they will keep that in consideration. But we are focused on setting up a Western Cape ANC government, here, in the Western Cape. That is what is our main focus. And we are assured of a great outcome here.” Cyril Ramaphosa, 2 May 2024.ANC got 19.6% in the Western Cape, down 9pts from 28.6%, its lowest percentage out of all provinces and a decline of 31%.
Prediction Reality
JM: “Well, internal polling, including Ipsos, because we also invite Ipsos to our own meetings, and we are now sitting comfortably beyond 30%… and we think with this election campaign intensifying, we stand a good chance of increasing our percentage.” I: “Wow, beyond 30%? I think they put you at around 18%, so let’s talk to beyond 30%, where are those votes going to come from?” JM: “They are going to come from KZN, from Gauteng, from Western Cape, the Eastern Cape, Limpopo. Because those are the provinces that are the biggest feeders of our election input and we believe that our structures in those provinces are ready for the task.”  Julius Malema, 5 March 2024EFF declined 1.3pts, from 10.8% to 9.5% and finished in 4th position, down from 3rd. 
Prediction Reality
“ActionSA has proven that it is different: we have structures nationwide powered by thousands of volunteers, have proved we can win support, have a clear plan to fix the country and are on track to achieve double-digit support.” Michael Beaumont, 25 February 2024ASA declined 1.1pts, from 2.3% in the 2021 local government elections to 1.2%; it dropped 115k votes, from 320k to 190k, and fell from 6th place to 8th in losing 36% of its 2021 national support.
Prediction Reality
“These small parties, the MK-what-what don’t really know us. They only know about us from the media. They will know us on 29 May.” Cyril Ramaphosa, 18 May 2024MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. ANC declined 17.5pts, from 57% to 40.1%, losing its national majority, around 3.6m votes and 30% of its support.
Prediction Reality
“Under Steenhuisen’s leadership, the DA is probably headed for the worst election outcome since 2009. The DA’s best showing at a national election was in 2014, when the party peaked at 22.2%. The DA is not likely to score anything close to 22.2% during next year’s election. If it does, I will concede defeat and apologise to News24’s readers and the DA’s supporters in particular.” Sipho Masondo, 19 December 2023The DA won 21.8% of the vote nationally, improving marginally, by 1pt, on its 2019 performance.
Prediction Reality
“All day every-day, the DA will never get 40% in the next election in WC.” Gayton McKenzie, 20 May 2024DA won 55.3% in the Western Cape, 15.3 pts more than 40%.
Prediction Reality
“We are poised to deliver what we believe to be a very strong result, in this election. If you look at the history of new parties in South Africa, the best a first-time party has ever done was COPE, which I think was around 7.8% – or something of that nature – second was the EFF, at 6-point something. And certainly we see ourselves beating both of those parties quite significantly… we [also] see ourselves as the biggest party here in a coalition here in Gauteng.” Michael Beaumont, 12 December 2023.ASA declined 1.1pts, from 2.3% in the 2021 local government elections to 1.2%; it dropped 115k votes, from 320k to 190k, and fell from 6th place to 8th in losing 48% of its 2021 national support. It fell, 1.2m votes short of COPE’s 2009 performance. In Gauteng, ASA finished in 5th place, with 4.2% or 160k votes, down 120k votes or a loss of 43% of its 2021 support in the province.
Prediction Reality
“The ANC will be in power, and the ANC will win elections, here comrades, overwhelmingly. It is going to be like that because Panyaza is delivering, it is going to be like that because Ramaphosa is delivering, it is going to be like that because the ANC has got a track record of delivering to the people of South Africa.” Fikile Mbalula, 27 January 2024ANC fell 15.4pts in Gauteng, from 50.2% to 34.8%, losing its majority. It lost 810,000 votes, down from 2.2m to 1.6m in the province, or 36% of its 2019 support. 
Prediction Reality
“Watching the developments, Action South Africa is not only going to emerge as the second-biggest party in 2024, it is going to emerge as the biggest party in South Africa.” Herman Mashaba, 20 October 2022ASA declined 1.1pts, from 2.3% in the 2021 local government elections to 1.2%; it dropped 115k votes, from 320k to 190k, and fell from 6th place to 8th  in losing 36% of its 2021 support.
Prediction Reality
“It’s a settled matter that the all mighty God has spoken. No shenanigans can reverse what he has predetermined that I will be president… All I can say is that the Lord made it abundantly clear to me that I’m not going to join any political party … I’m not going to form any political party. He wants to do it His own way.” Mogoeng Mogoeng, 12 February 2024Waiting on clarity from God.
Prediction Reality
“I can tell you, putting my neck on the block, we are going to have good result in KZN. And the most troublesome party to us will not be the MK. MK is a spoiler, so a spoiler is a problem if it takes from you but if it takes from everybody else even those who celebrate it get shocked when by-elections come because they find that people move from those parties to the MK Party.” Gwede Mantashe, 9 April 2024MK won 45.4% in KwaZulu-Natal and 1.6m votes. ANC fell 37pts in KwaZulu-Natal, from 54% to 17%, losing its majority. It lost 1.9m votes in the province, down from 2.5m votes to 600k, or 76% of its 2019 support. 
Prediction Reality
“The ANC is going to get more than 50%. This province [Gauteng] is the home of the ANC. As I have been going around, people are saying, ‘We belong to the ANC and we support the ANC’. So, we are confident. I can feel the pulse of the people, and I can smell the victory. So it is going to happen. Whether people like it or not, the ANC is going to come back with a bang.” Cyril Ramaphosa, 4 February 2024ANC fell 15.4pts in Gauteng, from 50.2% to 34.8%, losing its majority. It lost 810,000 votes, down from 2.2m to 1.6m in the province, or 36% of its 2019 support. 
Prediction Reality
Q: “And you are pretty confident that, in six months’ time, that you are going to be sitting in parliament?“ BB: “Absolutely, I think we going to be sitting in parliament. I won’t be there alone.”  Bongani Baloyi, 13 February 2024Xiluva received just over 2,500 votes and 0.02%, ending up in 50th place nationally. 
Prediction Reality
“Once ANC supporters come out in their millions, we absolutely certain of a clear victory here in KwaZulu-Natal… So I am not losing any sleep about the strength of our support in KZN”. Cyril Ramaphosa, 17 May 2024ANC fell 37pts in KwaZulu-Natal, from 54% to 17%. It lost 1.9m votes in the province, down from 2.5m votes to 600k, or 76% of its 2019 support.
Prediction Reality
“We have been through this journey before.  We went through the formation of COPE, which was very formidable in my take. The EFF, is not really formidable. The MK party is not really formidable in my take.” David Mabuza, 5 May 2024MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. It won 45.4% in KwaZulu-Natal and 1.6m votes, reducing the ANC from 54% to 17% in the province. It won 1m more votes than COPE did in 2009.
Prediction Reality
“Mr Zuma, Mr Zuma, Mr Zuma we @BuildOneSA will beat both MK and ANC next year.” Mmusi Maimane, 16 December 2023The ANC won 40.2% nationally and 6.4m votes. MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. BOSA won 0.4% nationally and 65k votes. It finished 6.4m votes behind the ANC and 2.3m votes behind MK.
Prediction Reality
“Let me tell you something that is reality, and which you can prove in less than 20 days, is that if the EFF doesn’t get an outright majority in these elections, we are going to be the second-best political party in terms of the electoral support in SA… We can tell you now, without any fear of contradiction that, the EFF will be decidedly bigger than the DA in Gauteng province, in KwaZulu-Natal, in the Eastern Cape, of course, in the other remaining provinces, they might till get some numerical majority but not a decisive majority in the Western Cape. But in the majority of provinces, we are definitely going to overtake the DA… One thing you must know, the EFF will either be number one or number two in South Africa and that is a reality we are looking forward to.” Floyd Shivambu, 12 May 2024EFF declined 1.3pts, from 10.8% to 9.5% and finished in 4th position, down from 3rd. It finished 30.7pts behind the ANC, and 12.3pts behind the DA. It finished in 3rd place in Gauteng (14.7pts behind the DA); in 5th place in KwaZulu-Natal (11.1 pts behind the DA) and 3rd place in the Eastern Cape, 4.6pts behind the DA).
Prediction Reality
“It’s obvious, we are going to be bigger than the DA. If you look at the work we do on the ground, we appeal to all people in the villages, suburbs, the townships. I don’t see the DA as competition to us. I can also not see how the DA will beat our numbers on a national level.” Herman Mashaba, 18 March 2024ASA declined 1.1pts – from 2.3% in the 2021 local government elections to 1.2%; it dropped 115k votes, from 320k to 190k, and fell from 6th place to 8th, finishing 20.6 pts and 3.3m votes behind the DA nationally, while losing 36% of its 2021 support.
Prediction Reality
“I posit that his epitaph will read: ‘Here lies a man twice removed from Parliament, whose departure from the ANC sealed his destiny. He rests in the iNkandla forest, devoid of life, defiant to the end, yet bereft of vitality and essence. Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Mhlanganyelwa Msholozi Zuma’.” Fikile Mbalula, writing in ANC Today, 4 April 2024MK won 14.6% nationally and 2.3m votes. It won 45.4% in KwaZulu-Natal and 1.6m votes, reducing the ANC from 54% to 17%.
Prediction Reality
“I think the ANC will win these elections comfortably. I hope some guys who lose won’t commit suicide.” Mathews Phosa, 14 May 2024ANC declined 17.4pts, from 57.5% to 40.1%, losing its national majority, around 3.6m votes and 30% of its support.
Prediction Reality
“Some people think that the ANC is going to lose power, and I say, ‘that is not going to happen’. Watch this space, when the results are declared. And those who think the ANC is going to fall? The ANC is going to rise. So let them be relaxed about that, and accept what is going to happen.” Cyril Ramaphosa, 21 May 2024ANC declined 17.5pts, from 57% to 40.1%, losing its national majority, around 3.6m votes and 30% of its support.

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