How SA’s favourite shares performed in 2013 – JSE Alsi 40 by numbers

jse-buildingA case to read Nassim Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness is emphasised in the 2013 performance of the South African stock market’s most valuable counters, the members of Alsi 40.  This was a year when it was far better to be lucky than skilled.  

Had you enjoyed the good fortune of spreading your investment rands between the top five performers on the Alsi 40,  a R100 000 stake would have ended the year worth R178 540. Better still, if you’d gone for just Naspers and Mondi, you’d have doubled your money.

On the flip side, those who have selected the bottom five performers would have experienced their R100 000 drop to being worth R43 820. Having the misfortune of owning Or dropped Harmony, GoldFields and African Bank would have resulted in losing two thirds of the capital. Not surprisingly, all three of 2013’s dogs have now dropped out of the Alsi 40 index.

It was also a year when the heavier counters did well. So unless you had a crystal ball it would have been best to stick with index trackers. Of the five JSE-listings worth R450bn or more, four achieved share price gains of over 30%, pulling the weighted average up strongly.

The Alsi 40 Index gained 19.2% in the year when rising from 34 796 to 41 481. Of the 44 stocks that were either in the index at the start of the year or introduced by the end of it, only 18 (four in ten) rose by more than the Alsi40 index.  – AH

JSE's Alsi 40 share performance in 2013

POSCOMPANYSECTORMKT CAPPRICE 2012PRICE 2013CHANGE
RMRR%
1NASPERS-NTMT454 312.0543.201096.01101.8%
2MONDI PLCPaper62 526.091.20181.1998.7%
3CAPITAL + COUNTIESProperty44 746.033.5056.5068.7%
4STEINHOFFIndustrial86 588.727.4345.1364.5%
5ASPENPharmaceutical123 087.0169.00268.7259.0%
6RICHEMONTLuxury Goods541 836.066.50104.5857.3%
7SASOLOil and Gas336 682.0362.80514.5041.8%
8MEDICLINICHospitals62 898.054.8576.0038.6%
9LONMINMining30 145.038.9153.2836.9%
10SA-BREWSBeverages888 011.0389.44532.7536.8%
11DISCOVERYFinancial49 546.062.1984.5035.9%
12OLDMUTUALFinancial163 804.024.4932.7933.9%
13BATSTobacco1 134 448.0428.22560.1330.8%
14REMGROIndustrial99 565.0159.20207.8230.5%
15INVESTEC PLCFinancial45 807.058.3275.5729.6%
16BIDVESTIndustrial87 564.0215.49268.3524.5%
17LIFE HEALTHCAREHospitals44 742.034.0041.8623.1%
18MTN-GROUPTMT400 223.0177.60217.0222.2%
19SANLAMFinancial109 767.044.7753.2418.9%
20RMBHOLDFinancial66 901.040.7048.3518.8%
21FIRSTRANDFinancial197 441.031.0035.8915.8%
22INTU PROPProperty53 162.048.6054.5512.2%
23NEDBANKFinancial103 183.0188.00210.0011.7%
24BHPBILLITONMining680 738.0292.89323.8910.6%
25STANBANKFinancial206 777.0118.88129.428.9%
26VODACOMTMT197 094.0124.00133.007.3%
27WOOLIESRetail62 847.071.0074.655.1%
28ARMMining41 741.0189.90189.00-0.5%
29GROWPNTProperty45 882.024.5024.28-0.9%
30ANGLOPLATMining106 543.0446.33393.91-11.7%
31ANGLO AMERICANMining304 908.0259.58229.00-11.8%
32EXXAROMining53 947.0169.00146.46-13.3%
33ASSOREMining49 641.0407.40340.61-16.4%
34TIGBRANDSIndustrial49 482.0325.25266.93-17.9%
35BARCLAYS AFRICAFinancial111 784.0164.00132.25-19.4%
36SHOPRITRetail92 531.0204.50164.00-19.8%
37KUMBAMining140 381.0568.88443.45-22.0%
38IMPLATSMining81 031.0167.70123.00-26.7%
39TRUWTHSRetail34 786.0108.6776.76-29.4%
40MASMARTRetail27 208.0191.08130.00-32.0%
41ANGGOLDMining51 990.0262.34122.92-53.0%
42ABILFinancial17 818.032.2012.05-62.6%
43HARMONYMining11 931.074.0025.90-65.0%
44GFIELDSMining26 244.0103.7532.89-68.3%
How South Africa's biggest stocks performed in the 12 months to 31 December 2013.
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