A case to read Nassim Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness is emphasised in the 2013 performance of the South African stock market’s most valuable counters, the members of Alsi 40. This was a year when it was far better to be lucky than skilled.
Had you enjoyed the good fortune of spreading your investment rands between the top five performers on the Alsi 40, a R100 000 stake would have ended the year worth R178 540. Better still, if you’d gone for just Naspers and Mondi, you’d have doubled your money.
On the flip side, those who have selected the bottom five performers would have experienced their R100 000 drop to being worth R43 820. Having the misfortune of owning Or dropped Harmony, GoldFields and African Bank would have resulted in losing two thirds of the capital. Not surprisingly, all three of 2013’s dogs have now dropped out of the Alsi 40 index.
It was also a year when the heavier counters did well. So unless you had a crystal ball it would have been best to stick with index trackers. Of the five JSE-listings worth R450bn or more, four achieved share price gains of over 30%, pulling the weighted average up strongly.
The Alsi 40 Index gained 19.2% in the year when rising from 34 796 to 41 481. Of the 44 stocks that were either in the index at the start of the year or introduced by the end of it, only 18 (four in ten) rose by more than the Alsi40 index. – AH
JSE's Alsi 40 share performance in 2013
| POS | COMPANY | SECTOR | MKT CAP | PRICE 2012 | PRICE 2013 | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RM | R | R | % | |||
| 1 | NASPERS-N | TMT | 454 312.0 | 543.20 | 1096.01 | 101.8% |
| 2 | MONDI PLC | Paper | 62 526.0 | 91.20 | 181.19 | 98.7% |
| 3 | CAPITAL + COUNTIES | Property | 44 746.0 | 33.50 | 56.50 | 68.7% |
| 4 | STEINHOFF | Industrial | 86 588.7 | 27.43 | 45.13 | 64.5% |
| 5 | ASPEN | Pharmaceutical | 123 087.0 | 169.00 | 268.72 | 59.0% |
| 6 | RICHEMONT | Luxury Goods | 541 836.0 | 66.50 | 104.58 | 57.3% |
| 7 | SASOL | Oil and Gas | 336 682.0 | 362.80 | 514.50 | 41.8% |
| 8 | MEDICLINIC | Hospitals | 62 898.0 | 54.85 | 76.00 | 38.6% |
| 9 | LONMIN | Mining | 30 145.0 | 38.91 | 53.28 | 36.9% |
| 10 | SA-BREWS | Beverages | 888 011.0 | 389.44 | 532.75 | 36.8% |
| 11 | DISCOVERY | Financial | 49 546.0 | 62.19 | 84.50 | 35.9% |
| 12 | OLDMUTUAL | Financial | 163 804.0 | 24.49 | 32.79 | 33.9% |
| 13 | BATS | Tobacco | 1 134 448.0 | 428.22 | 560.13 | 30.8% |
| 14 | REMGRO | Industrial | 99 565.0 | 159.20 | 207.82 | 30.5% |
| 15 | INVESTEC PLC | Financial | 45 807.0 | 58.32 | 75.57 | 29.6% |
| 16 | BIDVEST | Industrial | 87 564.0 | 215.49 | 268.35 | 24.5% |
| 17 | LIFE HEALTHCARE | Hospitals | 44 742.0 | 34.00 | 41.86 | 23.1% |
| 18 | MTN-GROUP | TMT | 400 223.0 | 177.60 | 217.02 | 22.2% |
| 19 | SANLAM | Financial | 109 767.0 | 44.77 | 53.24 | 18.9% |
| 20 | RMBHOLD | Financial | 66 901.0 | 40.70 | 48.35 | 18.8% |
| 21 | FIRSTRAND | Financial | 197 441.0 | 31.00 | 35.89 | 15.8% |
| 22 | INTU PROP | Property | 53 162.0 | 48.60 | 54.55 | 12.2% |
| 23 | NEDBANK | Financial | 103 183.0 | 188.00 | 210.00 | 11.7% |
| 24 | BHPBILLITON | Mining | 680 738.0 | 292.89 | 323.89 | 10.6% |
| 25 | STANBANK | Financial | 206 777.0 | 118.88 | 129.42 | 8.9% |
| 26 | VODACOM | TMT | 197 094.0 | 124.00 | 133.00 | 7.3% |
| 27 | WOOLIES | Retail | 62 847.0 | 71.00 | 74.65 | 5.1% |
| 28 | ARM | Mining | 41 741.0 | 189.90 | 189.00 | -0.5% |
| 29 | GROWPNT | Property | 45 882.0 | 24.50 | 24.28 | -0.9% |
| 30 | ANGLOPLAT | Mining | 106 543.0 | 446.33 | 393.91 | -11.7% |
| 31 | ANGLO AMERICAN | Mining | 304 908.0 | 259.58 | 229.00 | -11.8% |
| 32 | EXXARO | Mining | 53 947.0 | 169.00 | 146.46 | -13.3% |
| 33 | ASSORE | Mining | 49 641.0 | 407.40 | 340.61 | -16.4% |
| 34 | TIGBRANDS | Industrial | 49 482.0 | 325.25 | 266.93 | -17.9% |
| 35 | BARCLAYS AFRICA | Financial | 111 784.0 | 164.00 | 132.25 | -19.4% |
| 36 | SHOPRIT | Retail | 92 531.0 | 204.50 | 164.00 | -19.8% |
| 37 | KUMBA | Mining | 140 381.0 | 568.88 | 443.45 | -22.0% |
| 38 | IMPLATS | Mining | 81 031.0 | 167.70 | 123.00 | -26.7% |
| 39 | TRUWTHS | Retail | 34 786.0 | 108.67 | 76.76 | -29.4% |
| 40 | MASMART | Retail | 27 208.0 | 191.08 | 130.00 | -32.0% |
| 41 | ANGGOLD | Mining | 51 990.0 | 262.34 | 122.92 | -53.0% |
| 42 | ABIL | Financial | 17 818.0 | 32.20 | 12.05 | -62.6% |
| 43 | HARMONY | Mining | 11 931.0 | 74.00 | 25.90 | -65.0% |
| 44 | GFIELDS | Mining | 26 244.0 | 103.75 | 32.89 | -68.3% |
