Don’t fool yourself, the ANC will win #Elections2019

Lately, there have been several articles and polls suggesting the ANC may not romp to victory the way it has before. But make no mistake, the ANC will win #Elections2019. While the ANC’s vote share may decline, it will almost certainly hold onto 50% of the vote – enough to form a government. And even if its vote share fell below 50%, there are plenty of small parties that would be happy to partner with the ANC to form a government in exchange for a few favours. Heck, even the EFF is often happy to vote with the ANC, and they like to play kingmaker.

What won’t be happening any time soon is a government formed by anyone other than the ANC. The DA, expected to get about 20% of the vote, has few friends among the smaller parties – certainly not enough to breach the parliamentary threshold for forming a government. Its vote share would have to top 50% for a DA government to happen.

As the ANC’s strength erodes, it will mean more power for smaller parties as the ruling party looks to them for support. The main opposition parties will not be the winners.

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