Advice from Bill Gates on how to approach 2020

In his brilliantly prescient 1995 book The Road Ahead, Microsoft founder Bill Gates unpacked how the structure of the global economy would be transformed by a then fledgling invention called the Internet.

Among the book's memorable passages was Gates's explanation that "we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten." History's great fortunes have accrued to those who understand this cycle.

It is now just over two years since the watershed event that dramatically changed South Africa's political landscape. Thus far, Gates's thesis has held true. The initial excitement after December 2017's Elective Conference produced unrealistic expectations. With hindsight, the Ramaphoria shooting star was predictable.

SA has now passed the period of over-estimation and is entering the under-estimation stage. As with the Internet circa 1995, tomorrow's winners are those who understand how transformative cycles play out. It's well to remember this as we welcome this new year that's brim-full with possibilities.