Davos in January is full of fascinating people with illuminating insights. Among the best I’ve been exposed to this year is Oxford University Professor Ian Goldin’s thesis the Fourth Industrial Revolution (or, as some prefer, the Second Machine Age) should rather be called The New Renaissance. Because, like the last period of seismic changes from which emerged the genius of Da Vinci, Galileo and Michelangelo, we now live an age where ideas are paramount and creativity is king. Goldin, a South African who returned from exile to run the Development Bank of SA before moving back into academia, was a star attraction in a packed WEF session examining the history of industrial revolutions. I grabbed him afterwards for a ten minute chat – and prodded him about how these momentous changes will affect his homeland. Goldin has some strong opinions on what needs to be done to avoid becoming irrelevant. He didn’t pull any punches. – Alec Hogg
I’m with Ian Goldin, a professor from Oxford University and a South African. You said in your presentation a little bit earlier that you never thought you’d go back to South Africa. A little bit of background, how did you leave?
I left in 1978 to go to study abroad. I went to London School of Economics and then Oxford and then I couldn’t go back again because I got involved from about 1980 in various things which meant that it was impossible to go back but I was delighted to find in my lifetime that I could. I thought it’s a dream come true.
You went back as an economic advisor to Nelson Mandela. That’s not a well-known fact.
I went back as the Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa. That was my main job but I rapidly became very involved in the economic policy with the Minister of Finance, who became Trevor Manuel. With the government I got very involved in advising on many things including South Africa’s Olympic bid and then accompanied the president on many international trips and engaged with him on many economic matters.
We have a similar debate going on at the moment, the pre-Davos 1992 Mandela to post-Davos 1992 nationalisation to no nationalisation. I hope you’re going to be making your voice heard in that debate too.
It is interesting to see some of these debates coming back again that were discussed in great depth in the early nineties around nationalisation around how to overcome, how to reduce inequality, all of these absolutely key questions and we made many major advances, unprecedented advances in that period but clearly there’s a lot that remains to be done with the levels of unemployment, with inequality in many respects of development.
I think it’s healthy that these debates are constantly renewed and refreshed in the light of changing circumstances but it’s important that we don’t try and reinvent the past. Many things are simply not, I think helpful in terms of advancing South Africa’s economy of creating jobs. At times I am concerned in these debates that the lessons of the world and the lessons of South Africa itself appear so often to be forgotten and we struggle to try and, I think find a way forward without taking reference to the past.
You’re very much on a global stage here. We’ve just come out of a session that was facilitated by Neil Ferguson, a well-known historian and friend of yours, where you were relating what happened in the Renaissance to what we’re going through right now. First of all, as a broader perspective, is this again going to be to the advantage, perhaps of a developed world rather than developing countries?
This is another age of discovery and one of the reasons that I think it’s so challenging for South Africa, Africans in general to navigate this time is that it’s totally different to any time that went before. It’s evolving much more rapidly. What’s happening in terms of machines taking people’s jobs, robotics, what’s happening in terms of medical technologies, what’s happening in terms of new division of labour in the world are radically different. I don’t think this is going to be like the previous renaissance in that it was mainly a European story. The age of discovery, the voyages of discovery had terrible unintended consequences leading to the death of many Native Americans, slavery in Africa. This is different.
In many cases this is being led by emerging markets by developing countries not least India and China for example. Many of these big driving forces are coming from developing countries themselves. The question for Africa and the question for South Africa is where does it fit into this? Is it going to be able to be a frontend player? Is it going to be able to create the quality of jobs in this new international division of labour and is it particularly going to be able to have the skills and education required because in the end what this is about is flexibility. This is about workers, individuals, businesses changing more rapidly.
As the world changes more rapidly, we’ve got to change more rapidly too and our ability to change our ideas to be flexible is what’s going to, I think really determine our ability to compete. Agility, flexibility, absorbing, looking at the world, being open to the world is important, for Africans, for South Africans, getting the pulse of the world and not thinking about us as being the centre of the universe. We are for ourselves but unfortunately, we have to be more and more connected if we’re going to thrive in this new world.
How disconnected are we?
I think it’s very varied. Generalisations are always extremely hazardous but I think there is in a sense a feeling that somehow it’s different in Africa or South Africa, that there are unique characteristics and of course there are always unique characteristics but these are not so unique. It means we’re not going to be affected by these massive shifting global trends and I think there is. The problems are very, very demanding, the crises, the urgent needs of our societies are so great that sometimes by focusing on those we lose sight of some of these bigger changing trends globally.
If we need to be able to keep our sight both on resolving our short-term crises but in the context of this much bigger global shift because if we fix the problem in the short-term and don’t adapt faster to the longer-term demands in education systems, in infrastructure, in governance, in other areas we will find that actually we’ve wasted a lot of effort because the world has moved on.
Ian you’re a long way away at Oxford University, which also has its own issues about South Africa lately but when you look at South Africa, if you were able to parachute in and engage with leadership is there anything that you could advise or anything that should be put on the agenda now given the global perspective?
I think it’s very important that everyone in South Africa feels that the government is listening to them and has their interest at heart rather than self-interest and it’s extremely important that we return to, I think the sense that existed in the early years of our democracy in the 1990’s of service in government, that government leaders are to serve. We vote for them to serve our needs and that, that should be the most important thing and we should hold them accountable for it.
I think it’s very important as well that effectiveness is a standard. These people are paid by taxpayers’ money. We need to ensure that we would treat them as we would treat an employee. If people are not doing the job they should be changed. It’s an incredible country with incredible potential but it’s very sad to see that this potential is not always being realised and I don’t think we can blame the rest of the world for this. Of course there are many hostile voices externally but in the end the way societies change and the way that societies are able to meet these challenges about them in themselves. My view is that this is going to have to be something which is worked through in the coming years which is rediscovering the purpose of government and effectiveness.
Away from entrepreneurial politicians to serving politicians?
Yes, there are many examples around the world of what happens and the good thing is that we have a democracy. The good thing is that the party that’s in power, the ANC has a mandate to serve the people and it just needs to happen.
Getting back to the theme of your book, which is coming out in May, comparing the Renaissance as what we’re going through now, the future seems to belong to the creative ones. Is there anything that you could propose to just, if you had a son or a grandson perhaps, how do you train them or how do you help them to become more creative?
I think the most important characteristic for being effective in a rapidly changing world is being curious, trained people, especially the education systems to ask questions, to challenge. Challenge authority, challenge yourself, ask the question, why is something happening and what can you do to change and work in every dimension and it’s curiosity that of course will lead you to understand what’s happening in the world, that will lead you to adapt.
Education systems need to improve. Getting an education, taking studies seriously, reading as wide as possible and the wonderful thing about this new information age we’re in, this new age of discovery is that whether you’re in the slums of Soweto or whether you’re in the high rises and houses of Sandton you can get the same information on the internet. You can get the same potential and this is the extraordinary thing about how we can release genius and creativity from everyone in the country. If people are literate, if people are connected and those are two top priorities of course for government I think. They must be. Then we get not just a small group driving the change in society but many, many more people and particularly young people able to drive this change and the future’s with them.
The next Einstein as you said earlier or Michelangelo could come from Africa, could come from South Africa.
Absolutely and I think there’s a very good chance it will. If you just look at the numbers I believe in a random distribution of exceptional talent. I also believe that when people come together and connect they can do extraordinary things and if you look at the number of people coming out, they young people, Africa’s the young continent. This is where the future brains are.
Dr Ian Goldin is with Oxford.
