SA votes in landmark election as ANC faces potential loss of majority
South Africans are voting in a pivotal election that could end the African National Congress's (ANC) three-decade dominance. The ANC's support has declined from nearly 70% in 2004 to 57.5% in 2019, with polls suggesting it may lose its parliamentary majority. Economic issues and government failures drive voter discontent.
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By S'thembile Cele and Mike Cohen
South Africans began voting in an election on Wednesday that looks set to reshape a political landscape dominated for three decades by the party that Nelson Mandela led to power.
The African National Congress has won every vote since the end of White-minority rule in 1994, but its support slipped from a peak of almost 70% in 2004 to 57.5% in 2019, and most opinion polls point to it losing its parliamentary majority for the first time.
While the party has dismissed the surveys, there's widespread disgruntlement over a 33% unemployment rate, one of the world's highest crime rates and the collapse of government services in many areas.
"South Africa's general election is a watershed moment in the political history of the country," said Aleix Montana, southern Africa analyst at risk adviser Verisk Maplecroft. "Voter discontent is driven by the ANC government's failure to address a plethora of socioeconomic issues."
Many analysts expect the ANC to win more than 45% pf the vote. That would allow it to retain power by forming an alliance with one or more smaller parties and exclude its main rivals — particularly former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters, which have both pledged to nationalize land and mines and would seek major concessions on policy and appointments. It would also likely omit the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, currently the main opposition.
The financial markets are betting the country will avoid a worst-case scenario and that economic policy will largely remain intact, with the rand having gained 3.6% against the dollar since the start of last month. Power cuts that have hobbled the economy have also eased over the past few weeks, adding to the positive sentiment, while record-setting commodity prices have boosted exports.
Anything less than an outright majority would threaten "chaos," Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. "What these elections are about, are about stability and chaos, and the ANC provides that stability," he said in an interview with with Jennifer Zabasajja.
Voting at the country's 23,292 voting stations will run from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m., with final results likely to be announced over the weekend. Almost 28 million people have registered to cast ballots and 70 political parties and 11 independents are vying for seats in parliament and the nine provincial legislatures. The president will be elected at the first sitting of the new National Assembly, which must take place within 14 days of the release of the results.
The ANC is banking on the popularity of President Cyril Ramaphosa, 71, to help shore up its support. He had the highest approval rating among party leaders in a survey published this week by polling company Ipsos — albeit with a score of 5.1 out of 10. Zuma ranked second with 3.7 and the EFF's leader Julius Malema third with 3.5.
More than a third of the 2,545 registered voters surveyed said that no party aligns with their views — reinforcing the findings of other polls that many people are undecided on who to support, and may opt out of voting. Voter turnout was 47% in the 2019 national election.
In the ANC's final election rally in Johannesburg's FNB stadium at the weekend, Ramaphosa emphasized the strides the party has made over the past 30 years, including extending monthly welfare grants to almost half the population. He repeated that message in an address screened by the public broadcaster on May 26, drawing criticism that he was abusing state resources to campaign.
DA leader John Steenhuisen, 48, has touted his party's record in running Cape Town and the surrounding Western Cape province as evidence of its ability to do a better job than the ANC of governing the country. The economic growth rate in the region has consistently exceeded the national average, while the unemployment rate is markedly lower.
Malema, 43, has sought to rally support among younger voters, while Zuma has tapped into his popularity among his predominantly fellow Zulu-speakers in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal to build up his new party. The 82-year-old led South Africa for almost nine scandal-tainted years before the ANC forced him to step down in 2018 and replaced him with Ramaphosa.
Police are on high alert for any signs of election unrest after Zuma questioned the impartiality of the Independent Electoral Commission and members of his party allegedly breached a warehouse where ballot papers were being stored. The KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces have been flagged as the highest-risk areas.
Nearly 3,000 members of the defense force had been deployed to help the police maintain law and order over the elections, Ramaphosa's office said in a statement late Tuesday.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
By Anait Miridzhanian and Nqobile Dludla
SOWETO, South Africa (Reuters) – South Africans began voting on Wednesday in the most competitive election since the end of apartheid, with opinion polls suggesting the African National Congress (ANC) will lose its parliamentary majority after 30 years in government.
Polling stations opened at or shortly after 7 a.m. (0500 GMT), with voters queuing at some locations including Hitekani Primary School in the vast township of Soweto near Johannesburg, where President Cyril Ramaphosa was expected to vote later.
Security guard Shivambu Yuza Patric, 48, came straight to the polling station after working a night shift. He said he had not voted in the previous election because he had lost faith in the ANC, but he was hopeful this election would bring change.
"They do nothing for the people," he said of the ANC. He said he would decide at the last minute who to vote for but was leaning towards small opposition party ActionSA.
Then led by Nelson Mandela, the ANC swept to power in South Africa's first multi-racial election in 1994 and has won a majority in national elections held every five years since then, though its share of the vote has gradually declined.
If it falls short of 50% this time, the ANC will have to make a deal with one or more smaller parties to govern – uncharted and potentially choppy waters for a young democracy that has so far been utterly dominated by a single party.
However, the ANC is still on course to win the largest share of the vote, meaning that its leader Ramaphosa is likely to remain in office, unless he faces an internal challenge if the party's performance is worse than expected.
Voter dissatisfaction over high rates of unemployment and crime, frequent power blackouts and corruption in party ranks lies behind the ANC's gradual fall from grace.
'FRESH MINDS'
"I voted for the EFF and that's because I need fresh minds in parliament," said Andrew Mathabatha, 40, a self-employed engineer, who arrived early to vote at the Midrand High School in a northern suburb of Johannesburg.
He was referring to the Economic Freedom Fighters, a party founded by Julius Malema, a firebrand former leader of the ANC's youth wing. It wants to nationalise mines and banks and seize land from white farmers to address racial and economic disparities.
"I feel like the current government is slow in terms of implementing certain things and I just think that it's time for a different way of thinking and doing things," Mathabatha said.
More than 27 million South Africans are registered to vote at more than 23,000 polling stations that will be open until 9 p.m. (1900 GMT).
Voters will elect provincial assemblies in each of the country's nine provinces, and a new national parliament which will then choose the next president.
Among opposition parties vying for power is the pro-business Democratic Alliance, which won the second-largest vote share in 2019 and has formed an alliance with several smaller parties to try to broaden its appeal.
Former president Jacob Zuma is backing a new party called uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), named after the ANC's former armed wing. Zuma, who was forced to quit as president in 2018 after a string of scandals, has enduring influence, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
The election commission is expected to start releasing partial results within hours of polling stations closing. The commission has seven days to announce final results but at the last election – also held on a Wednesday – it did so on a Saturday.
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