Mugabe’s defiance of generals leaves Zimbabwe in political limbo

While the military said Friday at a briefing in Harare, the capital, that it's in discussions with the president and has made "significant progress" in what it says is an operation to remove "criminals" surrounding Mugabe, it gave no indication of what's likely to happen to him or who will lead the southern African nation.

The state-owned Herald newspaper published photographs on Thursday showing Mugabe, 93, meeting with armed forces commander Constantino Chiwenga at State House. Father Fidelis Mukonori, a prominent Catholic priest, is mediating the talks, which have included officials from neighboring South Africa.

This military intervention "may linger on a few days more, but the outcome will remain that this is the final endgame for Zimbabwe," said Theo Venter, a political analyst at North-West University's business school in Potchefstroom, west of Johannesburg. "The risk with all well-intended military interventions in politics is that the generals will eventually default to their normal state of command and control. In that case, this will then be a fully fledged coup d'etat."

The new rulers plan to set up a transitional administration until elections can be held to restore stability, according to two people familiar with the situation. But first they want a deal with Mugabe, whose government oversaw an economy that has halved in size since 2000 and been hit by a severe cash shortage that's choking businesses and a collapse in government services.

Political Crisis

The military intervention followed a week-long political crisis sparked by Mugabe's decision to fire his long-time ally Emmerson Mnangagwa as vice president in a move that paved the way for his wife Grace, 52, and her supporters to gain effective control over the ruling party. Nicknamed "Gucci Grace" in Zimbabwe for her extravagant lifestyle, she said on Nov. 5 that she would be prepared to succeed her husband.

Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, military coup, Constantino Chiwenga, Father Fidelis Mukonori, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Grace Mugabe, armed forces, Morgan Tsvangirai

The police and secret service, where Mugabe has allies, were excluded from the plans of leaders of the 35,000-member military, the people familiar with the situation said. A number of senior ruling-party officials, including the head of the police and the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Organisation, have been either arrested or are evading the military, the Harare-based Newsday newspaper said Thursday morning, citing unidentified people.

Colonel Oversin Mugwisi, a military spokesman, refused to comment on the names of those arrested.

The military is hoping to revive an economy hurt by a program initiated by Mugabe in 2000 that saw the violent seizure of white-owned farms by subsistence farmers. That slashed exports of key crops such as tobacco and roses and led to a famine as corn production crashed. The new rulers also want to repair relations with Western countries, who used to be among the biggest investors in the country, and international lenders, the people said.

Those plans are on hold until they can convince Mugabe to step down.

"It's clear that the Mnangagwa faction needs to get Mugabe to vacate office as soon as possible to stop him and members of the G-40 faction from regrouping," said Daniel Silke, director of Political Futures Consultancy in Cape Town. "The pressure will be on Mugabe to announce his resignation from the top job as soon as possible."