The elevation of Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner has introduced new uncertainty into the US election. World leaders, wary of Donald Trumpâs potential return, hope Harris can defeat him. Despite Bidenâs exit, global strategies remain focused on preparing for a possible Trump presidency.
Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.
Join us for BizNewsâ first investment-focused conference on Thursday, 12 September, in Hermanus, featuring top experts like Frans Cronje, Piet Viljoen, and more. Get insights on electricity and exploiting SAâs gas bounty from new and familiar faces. Register here.
By Ben Sills, Jan Bratanic and Andra Timu
The sudden elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner injects fresh uncertainty into the US election for world leaders already grappling with the implications of Donald Trumpâs potential return to the presidency.
Itâs a measure of the foreboding over Trump that most foreign officials who spoke to Bloomberg viewed President Joe Bidenâs exit from the race in terms of whether it improved the chances of defeating the Republican challenger. With varying degrees of frankness, they pinned hopes on Harris overtaking Trump in Novemberâs election to become the USâs first woman president.
Bidenâs decision on Sunday to end his reelection campaign drew a line under the long-running drama over his physical and mental frailty. While polls suggest Harris may be marginally better placed to challenge Trump, that doesnât alter the basic strategic calculation for governments around the world; they need to be ready for a second Trump term.
Most European governments are quietly looking to cultivate relations with Republicans to ensure they have a line in to a potential Trump White House, according to two officials with knowledge of the situation.
âWe have to be ready for both scenarios,â Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said. âWe cannot have wishful thinking that one candidate is better than other.â
Harrisâs new status as the likely Democratic nominee prompts two key questions for allies and adversaries alike. Can she win? And how much would President Harrisâs foreign policy differ from Bidenâs?
The outcome of multiple geopolitical challenges will be shaped by the answers, from Ukraineâs fight against Russiaâs invasion and Israelâs war with Hamas in Gaza to the future of European security, US relations with China and the contest for influence with the Global South.
This is a modal window.
The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the format is not supported.
âFrom Polandâs point of view, the most important will be the position of the new Democratic candidate on NATO, on the defense of Poland and the support for Ukraine,â Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak, a close ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, told Bloomberg by message. âWill there be the continuation of Bidenâs line?â
Harris set out a vision at the Munich Security Conference in February â her third visit to Europeâs biggest annual foreign-policy gathering â where she argued that US engagement in global affairs helps to make Americans safer and supports the US economy, contrasting that philosophy with Trumpâs isolationism.
âWe are committed to pursue global engagement, to uphold international rules and norms, to defend democratic values at home and abroad, and to work with our allies and partners in pursuit of shared goals,â she said. âOur approach is not based on the virtues of charity. We pursue our approach because it is in our strategic interest.â
Some who have dealt with Harris directly said she has a sound grasp of the issues, though itâs difficult to gauge her true convictions because the Biden White House didnât really give her much space on foreign policy.
Officials who spoke on condition of anonymity were unsure to what extent she was articulating her own world view or that of Biden.
Others were more critical, saying 59-year-old Harris lacked the knowledge and gravitas of Biden, who focused for much of a 36-year career in the Senate on international issues and chaired its foreign relations committee.
In Switzerland, where Harris stood in for Biden at last monthâs Ukraine summit, she gave a scripted speech condemning the Russian invasion and left White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to talk to reporters.
Still, one official pointed out that her national security adviser, Philip Gordon, has a deep understanding of Europe and suggested that connection was encouraging. Gordon served as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs under President Barack Obama and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyâs chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, this month.
Republican Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas said he expects the US will remain deeply engaged in the world no matter who wins the presidential election.
âI donât expect America to walk away from the world in any administration,â he said in an interview with Bloomberg TVâs Guy Johnson from the Farnborough International Airshow in the UK. He added that he expected aid to Ukraine would also continue either way.
âI think thereâs a path forward in Ukraine for success, for a victory,â he said. âI think itâs important for us to continue to pursue this cause.â
Russian President Vladimir Putinâs spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters Monday the Kremlin couldnât evaluate Harrisâs potential impact on bilateral ties âbecause so far her contribution to our relations hasnât been noticed.â
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is sympathetic to Harris and thinks she has time to overtake Trump by November, according to two of his foreign affairs advisors. Lula believes itâs important for the Democratic Party to formalize her candidacy and rally around her, and that Harris may do better with women voters than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss the presidentâs thinking.
One eastern European official said most Europeans are rooting for Harris. Only the âbad guysâ want to see Trump win, the person said, referencing Putin as well as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic, whoâve often clashed with European Union and US officials over the war in Ukraine.
Vucic said Harris should boost her chances of winning by persuading Michelle Obama to join her campaign.
âKamala Harris has neither the emotion nor the charisma to win a majority at this moment against Trump, but Michelle Obama does,â Vucic said. While Harrisâs chances are ânot bigâ against Trump, âshe may be the winner in the end,â he said.
Harris has been an active presence in the Asia-Pacific region, despite one notorious gaffe when she mixed up North Korea and South Korea on a visit to the demilitarized zone that separates the two countries. She had lunch with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol when he visited the US in April last year and the pair also visited NASAâs Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.
Officials in Tokyo are optimistic that a President Harris would cement ties with Japan, one official said. Harris has already formed a strong rapport with her Japanese counterparts, the official said, and her US West Coast background gives her a good understanding of the region.
Washingtonâs foreign-policy establishment â under both Democratic and Republican presidents â has been trying to shift the USâs focus away from Europe toward Asia and the challenge of China for more than a decade. European officials see that trend continuing.
On the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Washington earlier this month, one official lamented that the next US leader, whether itâs Trump or a Democrat, is unlikely to match Bidenâs commitment to the Transatlantic relationship.
Thatâs a message German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has already assimilated.
âNo matter what the outcome of the election will be, itâs clear that Europe must invest more in its own security and must become stronger,â Baerbock said Monday as she arrived at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.
Read also:
- Democrats divided over Kamala Harrisâ nomination after Biden exit
- đ Hedging surges as market uncertainty grows post-Biden exit
- Biden bows out: Historic decision ends re-election bid
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
