Covid-19 pandemic in pictures – updated graphs that matter to South Africans

By Douglas Parker*

The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on the Worldometer site. I source the data at 12pm each day, NZ time.

The data all relates to the previous day.

  • Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 5 584,000
  • The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 51.5%
  • The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 42.3%
  • And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 6.2%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:

Top Countries 25 May

  • USA: 19,790
  • Brazil: 13,051
  • Russia: 8,946
  • India: 6,414
  • Chile: 4,895
  • TOTAL: 53,096 which is 91% of the world total

Trends in New cases worldwide

Total global new cases today were: +- 99,128 taking the 7 day average to around 99,500. This is another reduction in case numbers today, mainly due to Brazil. In the Southern Hemisphere sub group, Australia recorded 4 new cases, South Africa 1,032 and New Zealand another 0. South Africa maintains its position at 18th in world rank order in number of daily cases. The USA share of world total has fallen to 22.4% on a 7 day moving basis.

Leading on from yesterday’s “When will it end” feature, I have built a simple analogue model to estimate the likely outcome for South Africa. See the feature at the end of the graphs.

A slight drop in new cases today, but the 7 day average has increased to nearly 100,000.

Europe and North America have more or less the same number of Covid-19 cases, and both showing reducing growth rates.

South America and Africa are showing high rates of growth, as are India and Bangladesh.

North America had the greatest number of new cases today.

Spain has the highest number of cases per 1 million population, at +-6,000, but the margin is reducing.

Death rates vary widely, and Belgium has the worst death rate per 1 million population. The big differences are unexplained.

Case numbers continue to drop in Europe. Most are below 1,000 per day, and the United Kingdom is the odd one out.

New Zealand has almost eradicated the virus, and Australia is not far behind, with the last 5 days showing very low figures.

South Africa’s case growth rate is slowing slightly, so the peak may be in sight. Today’s lower figure is encouraging.

When will it end?

Perhaps the single most important question on everyone’s mind. When will this pandemic end – when can life return to normal again? The destruction to the world economy has been immense, but we are yet to really see and feel the full implications, because most have been sheltered by governments throwing out relief packages.

It’s hard to come up with any definitive answers because the pattern of the pandemic differs widely between countries, depending on a multitude of factors. What we know is that the pandemic started in Wuhan province in China, and spread rapidly across the world through people travelling between China and other countries initially, then from there, to other countries, with Italy being a key source.

China took decisive action immediately the virus was identified, and though they suffered a rapid rise in infections peaking within 2 weeks at some 3900 people, their strict actions paid dividends, and the virus was brought under control very quickly, and within 10 weeks of the first cases, was effectively eradicated.

Other countries have had different experiences. Some responded equally aggressively and brought the virus under control quickly, while others were slower to react and were perhaps not so aggressive in their approach, and others yet, who largely left it to the community to fend for themselves, with little intervention from a government point of view.

At the time of writing, there’s a handful of countries that have reached or are close to ground zero. I have taken all of these, and examined the path the virus has followed in daily infection rates. What I have found, is that the quicker infection rates build to a peak, the quicker the path to eradication. The longer and flatter the curve to peak, the longer the path down to elimination.

I cannot explain why this is so. There are different regimes in different countries, there are different social mores, different living circumstances, different testing procedures, different health facilities, and different climates. The list is endless.

So I have merely taken my group of “mature” cases, and tracked the course of events. I then grouped them into 3 clusters based on the rate of growth shown in the initial phase up to peak.

A: Slow growth to peak

B: Moderate growth to peak

C: Rapid growth to peak

Let me introduce you to these clusters:

A: includes: Canada, Japan, Sweden, Singapore, Iceland, France, United Kingdom

B: includes: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Turkey, Israel, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg

C:  includes Germany, Spain, China, Thailand, New Zealand, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia, and South Korea.

So what do these clusters show?

Days to reach Peak               Growth Rate

A: (Slow)           38                                10.2%

B: (Medium)     24                                16.9%

C: (Fast)            16                                27%

Days to Second Peak         Growth Rate between Peaks

A: (Slow)           16                                0.4%

B: (Medium)     7                                  0.3%

C: (Fast)            7                                  -1.3%

Days to minimal cases      Growth rate to “end”

A: (Slow)         106                              -5.53

B: (Medium)   48                                -5.65

C: (Fast)          43                                 -5.93

These rough estimates indicate that countries in groups B and C could expect to see their case numbers at nil or negligible levels by the second and first weeks in July respectively. For countries in the (A) group, the wait will be a little longer, with indications showing the end of August/ first week of September being the end of the road.

Based on data to date, it would seem that South Africa fits into the (A) category, with a slow rise to peak, and a long period of reduction. Using this information, I have built a simple analogue model that indicates South Africa should reach the “end” ( IE around 10 cases per day) by about the 19th September, and would entail an outcome of approximately 100,000 cases. The number of deaths is likely to be between 2,000 and 4,000. No degree of reliability can be assigned to these estimates as too much is dependent on how the general public behaves, and a host of other factors.

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