Gayton “9/9” McKenzie predicts 25 PA MPs, very bad Election’24 for ANC/DA

After recording just 6 660 votes in the 2019 National election, Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie forecasts a massive breakthough in Election’24. The PA leader predicts his party will receive around 1m votes and secure 25 Members of Parliament in the National Assembly. McKenzie believes this will be a watershed with South Africans rejecting the status quo of dominant ANC and DA political parties, punishing both at the polls. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.

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Highlights from the interview

In a pre-election interview, Alec Hogg speaks with Gayton McKenzie, leader of the Patriotic Alliance (PA), about their ambitions and strategy for the imminent South African election. McKenzie outlines three primary objectives for the PA: securing seats in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures, becoming one of the top five parties, and reducing the dominance of the ANC and the DA in key provinces. He emphasizes the PA’s goal to bring both parties under 40% in the Northern and Western Cape to position PA as a kingmaker.

McKenzie criticizes the ANC and DA for their governance and coalition strategies, asserting that the DA fails to be a reliable partner, while the ANC, despite internal conflicts, maintains some respect. He discusses the DA’s failures, highlighting their inability to show achievements, leading them to attack other parties instead. McKenzie predicts significant gains for the PA, projecting around 25 seats in the National Assembly based on their recent successes in local elections and by-elections.

He also forecasts election outcomes, estimating the ANC at 40%, the DA at 19%, and the PA securing over 5% of the vote. McKenzie stresses the importance of coalition governments for South Africa’s political stability and criticises current pollsters’ accuracy and biases. He concludes by advocating for property rights, law and order, and an easier process for citizens to obtain firearms to enhance personal security. McKenzie’s confident and strategic approach aims to position the PA as a decisive force in South African politics.

Edited transcript of the interview  ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg (00:09.022): The election is hours away now, the big election for South Africa. The breakout party that everyone’s been talking about is MK. But perhaps an even bigger breakout is from the Patriotic Alliance. In the 2019 election, the Patriotic Alliance got a sum total of 6,660 votes. Well, it’s going to exponentially increase that by any standards. We’re talking to the leader just ahead of the election, Gayton McKenzie.

Alec Hogg (00:40.062): It’s actually quite incredible, Gayton. There’s been a lot of focus on MK, but if you look at the way Patriotic Alliance has improved from the last national election, it’s out of all kilter. Where are you guys putting yourselves right now as we head into the big day, less than 48 hours away?

Gayton McKenzie (00:46.54): Thank you.

Gayton McKenzie (01:02.124): I think we have three objectives. The Patriotic Alliance’s first objective is to make sure that we get into the National Assembly and all the provincial legislatures. The second one is we are the seventh-largest party at the moment. We want to go into the top five. The third one is we want to bring the ANC and the Democratic Alliance under 50% in the Northern Cape, actually under 40%. These are the three things we aim to achieve with the Patriotic Alliance.

Alec Hogg (02:00.478): Why do you want to bring the ANC and the DA down below 40%? What’s driving that objective?

Gayton McKenzie (02:09.868): Let’s start with the ANC. When you bring the ANC under 50%, say 47%, they can still be saved by any party on the left. But in the Northern Cape, which we project they’ll get around 36%, it’s going to be very hard for them to get a partner, making us the kingmaker. The same in the Western Cape with the DA. If the DA is at 42%, they can still form a coalition with like-minded parties. But in the 30s, it becomes very difficult to form a coalition.

Alec Hogg (04:01.982): Are all those bridges fully burnt though, given that this is politics and people do sling off about each other? You did offer an olive branch that was rejected. Is it not going to be starting again from a level basis after the elections?

Gayton McKenzie (04:29.676): There’s no bridge that’s always fully burnt. If you need to cross that bridge to reach your destination, you don’t burn it fully. The DA has not learned to be a good friend or partner, unlike the ANC. We have fallouts, but there’s respect. The DA needs to show people what they’ve done, not just attack others.

Alec Hogg (06:57.484): People think you becoming kingmakers is the best thing for you ever. But is it really?

Gayton McKenzie (07:01.432): No, the best thing for the Patriotic Alliance is for the Democratic Alliance and the ANC to form a coalition. If that happens, there’ll be nothing left of the DA. The ANC is different; they can have a fallout but still respect each other. The DA needs to show people what they’ve done, not just attack others.

Alec Hogg (08:19.902): It’s a very strange approach that the Democratic Alliance has taken, claiming they alone can save South Africa. But let’s leave that aside. We’ve asked our community how they think the election will end. They predict you’ll get eight seats. Where do you see yourselves in the National Assembly?

Gayton McKenzie (09:11.532): Man, I love it.

Alec Hogg (09:17.758): Just over 1.9% of the total vote. Where are you guys putting yourselves?

Gayton McKenzie (09:33.772): Excuse me, a bit of flu. I put the PA at around 25 seats in the National Assembly. It’s a massive number.

Alec Hogg (10:00.286): That’s a big number. What’s giving you that confidence to go from zero to 25 seats?

Gayton McKenzie (10:13.548): We are the only party that has won a ward in Cape Town in the past 15 years outside the ANC and the DA. We’ve taken more seats from the ANC than any other party in South Africa.

Alec Hogg (10:53.182): But hang on, the IFP has taken 15 wards from the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal since November 2021.

Gayton McKenzie (10:58.344): What have they done?

Gayton McKenzie (11:04.78): Is it not?

Alec Hogg (11:08.574): No, it’s 15. I spoke to Velenkosini Hlabisa.

Gayton McKenzie (11:14.06): But with 15 then they have more. I know. We have taken what was previously ANC and DA wards. But the IFP only fights the ANC in one province. We’ve taken wards in Gauteng, the Western Cape, and the Northern Cape. We are making big inroads everywhere.

Alec Hogg (14:15.39): How important are these polls? Do people look at them and decide to join a team because they seem like winners?

Gayton McKenzie (14:32.556): You need to ask if they are truthful. There’s a big difference in predictions. Pollsters often have party alignments and put out narratives to make people want to be with winners. After we filled Athlone Stadium, I saw reports saying we nearly filled it, but we had to turn away 4,000 people. Polls are for strippers. The smart pollsters are still checking closer to the election. The DA and the ANC are in massive trouble.

Gayton McKenzie (16:21.1): Instead of showing what they’ve done, the DA spends millions on ads attacking me. They should be telling people what they’ve done. We will show the people what we will do.

Alec Hogg (18:02.014): It’s going to be an interesting election on Wednesday. Mr. Hlabisa from the IFP is also confident. The polls put him at 2%.

Alec Hogg (18:29.726): There might be a lot of changes within political parties after this election. Give us your prediction for the National Assembly.

Gayton McKenzie (19:00.428): This is my prediction. I’ll start with the big parties. I give the ANC 40%, the DA 18%, and the EFF 10%. The PA will get around 25 seats, which is about 5% of the vote. The IFP will get 4%, Freedom Front Plus 3%, Action SA 4%, RISE Mzanzi 1.5%, and MK 6%. MK hasn’t used the Jacob Zuma factor effectively.

Alec Hogg (20:19.838): That’s a lovely prediction, Gayton.

Gayton McKenzie (20:23.212): The ANC’s first wish is an ANC-IFP coalition. They have no intention to donate votes to Jacob Zuma. If the DA and the ANC form a coalition, the PA will be the biggest beneficiary. The Patriotic Alliance will grow significantly from 6,600 votes to more than half a million.

Gayton McKenzie (23:54.445): I’m totally for property rights. The biggest issues in this election are immigration and property rights. We need to bring back law and order, including the death penalty. Expropriation without compensation will never work. Regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, we need a two-state solution. South Africa is taking the wrong posture.

Alec Hogg (26:19.176): It’s been lovely talking with you today. You also mentioned bringing back conscription, similar to what Rishi Sunak has done in the UK.

Gayton McKenzie (27:18.156) Thank you.

Gayton McKenzie (27:30.124) Perfect. No, but apart from that, you know, one thing that people must always, when somebody does something bad, there’s always lessons in it. I tell you, every white guy I meet currently, some of them work for me. And they are so skilled in the manners, finish, let’s say, grade five. And you ask him, where did you learn to do this? He says, the army, sir. When did you learn to cook like this? The army, sir. So the army is not just Cops, Kit and Donner. We have to bring people to the army instead of paying them 500 to sit at home and make them welfare dependent for the rest of their lives. We need to go and teach them a skill while they are working in the army.

Alec Hogg (28:15.582) fascinating insight and not far from the truth about my estimation or my experience as well. Gayton McKenzie, the leader of the Patriotic Alliance, and I’m Alec Hogg from

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