MK hurts ANC’s chances of national majority…
An "astonishing" performance by former President Jacob Zuma's MK party means the ruling African National Congress (ANC) might lose its majority in KZN – and fail to reach a national majority. In this interview with BizNews, Ray Hartley of the Brenthurst Foundation says that – with about 13% of votes counted – the ANC is probably going to come in below 50%. "I think the ANC is taking a beating. It's losing hand over fist in KwaZulu-Natal and that's a very populous province. So that's going to play into the national results. It's going to have to improve its position substantially elsewhere to make up for that loss. And I'm not sure that it has the cards to play. I think that it's too much for them to make up given the hammering, the clear hammering they're taking in KZN, to get above 50." Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is "kind of holding better than many expected".
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Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chris Steyn (00:00.926)
Millions of South Africans went to the polls yesterday to vote in the most important election since 1994. After a sleepless night, we catch up with Ray Hartley of The Brenthurst Foundation. Welcome, Ray.
Ray Hartley (00:13.687)
All right, good morning.
Chris Steyn (00:16.798)
Ray, do you have the dashboard, the IEC dashboard in front of you?
Ray Hartley (00:20.631)
Yeah, I've got a dashboard and it's very early. So what's quite interesting about the results is that although it's very early, some of the most respected analysts are calling certain provinces already. So we do have some certainty about some big provinces. And yeah.
Chris Steyn (00:38.942)
I've noticed.
Now, sorry to interrupt you, it's just after 10am, so I just want to put that out there when people watch the video so that they will know at what stage of the counting we were talking. What percentage of the vote is in, Ray?
Ray Hartley (00:56.055)
You're right.
So at the moment, I think it's just over 12%. I call it 13, 12.85 is in. And that's only, it's a 10th of the districts that are completed. So it is early days.
I think the ANC is taking a beating. It's losing hand over fist in KwaZulu-Natal and that's a very populous province. So that's going to play into the national results. So it's going to have to do very well. It's going to have to improve its position substantially elsewhere to make up for that loss. And I'm not sure that it has the cards to play. So I think the scenario of an ANC below 50 is pretty certain at this point.
Chris Steyn (01:18.11)
There are big trends
And with that count, there are big trends. I think, you know, the problem with the national trend at this stage is that it's very hard to call.
Ray Hartley (01:28.375)
So in previous elections, the DA would actually outperform the ANC early on at this stage because the urban voting stations would be more organised and their count would come in sooner and then the rural count would come in and change the balance and so on. This election is different, however, because the IEC, I think, was overwhelmed, and in some of the big urban areas, voting went on very late. And counting has been slower in those big urban areas. So the pattern's slightly different. We've got a lot of rural results flowing through early. And the big urban results have not come in yet. So it's even harder to call from that point of view at a national level because there's no clarity yet on any of the big metros and how they go.
Chris Steyn (02:27.474)
Shall we go through the parties as we are now? Let's start with the ruling African National Congress.
Ray Hartley (02:31.415)
Yeah.
Ray Hartley (02:35.095)
So the ANC at the moment nationally is on 42.37%. So that amounts to 500,000 votes basically. The DA has got just over 300,000 at 26%. The EFF nationally is at about 100,000. And the MK Party is just below them at about 92 ,000.
Chris Steyn (02:59.678)
Almost neck and neck, those two. Yes.
Ray Hartley (03:02.135)
Yes, the MK Party is definitely living up to expectations. And if I may say so, what we predicted in our poll in February that it would do really well. Quite a big surprise, I think, is performance of the PA, Patriotic Alliance. They've done well in Northern Cape, relatively well, Northern Cape and in rural Western Cape and even in some areas of rural Eastern Cape.
So that's the national picture. It's very vague. It's hard to call that at all at this stage.
However, I think the provinces are quite interesting. So two of the leading analysts that I follow, Dawie Scholtz and Wayne Sussman, have both called the Western Cape for the DA with 55%. So that's pretty solid coming from both of them. It's very early, but I'm kind of trusting that they know what they're doing. They're both excellent. And for them both to have called it, I think really does push it into almost certainty. And they've called Northern Cape for the ANC. The ANC performed a lot better in the Northern Cape than expected and has retained its majority there. And then also in the Eastern Cape, the ANC will continue there. So those two…they were less in the mix for a change of government. But yeah, I think the Western Cape result is very interesting because there was a lot of speculation about the DA losing. Yeah. So that's quite a, yeah, I think it's quite fascinating at this early stage that they've made those calls.
Chris Steyn (04:52.382)
But there seems to have been…the voting patterns in the provinces seem to have been very contradictory to what was happening nationally.
Ray Hartley (05:00.695)
Yeah, so nationally, I mean, as I said, the national sample is a tenth, really. You know, it's very early days. So, but what…the way these analysts work in the provinces is they will take a particular couple of wards, which they will use as bellweathers. And they'll look at the shifts in those wards and then project to similar wards. And when they have a critical mass of similar wards moving in the same direction, they then make a call. National is a lot more difficult to call at this point because you don't have the same sample size to project on a national map.
Chris Steyn (05:36.382)
Mm. Mm.
Chris Steyn (05:50.878)
Let's talk about KZN and the performance of MK there.
Ray Hartley (05:55.255)
Yeah, astonishing performance of MK and KZN. So the projections that are coming in there are that KZN will go to the, I mean, the ANC will lose its majority in KZN. So there's no projection yet that MK will clearly win. That hasn't come through yet, but they're fairly certain that the ANC will lose its majority.
And with the EFF also in the picture, although not doing great, there is quite a strong possibility of an MK-EFF government in KZN, possibly with one or two other smaller parties. So KZN is heading for a coalition. It's quite a big one, big province to go in that direction. And of course, that then gives MK some bargaining power in national coalition discussions.
Chris Steyn (06:59.774)
If you could summarize the picture we're seeing at the moment for the main parties, how would you do that?
Ray Hartley (07:08.471)
I would say that the DA is kind of holding better than many expected. Very uncertain as to where it'll end up because the major urban areas have not really started reporting in any serious way. I think the ANC is taking a beating. It's losing hand over fist in KwaZulu-Natal and that's a very populous province. So that's going to play into the national results. So it's going to have to do very well. It's going to have to improve its position substantially elsewhere to make up for that loss. And I'm not sure that it has the cards to play. So I think the scenario of an ANC below 50 is pretty certain at this point. MK Party is a surprise on the upside in KZN
Chris Steyn (08:00.958)
Yeah, continue.
Ray Hartley (08:08.247)
and has even got, you know, votes elsewhere. It even got 1% in the Northern Cape, which was quite, you know, quite an achievement. I don't think it means it gets a seat or anything, but so, yeah, that would be the big picture. I think the other dimension is that the smaller parties are just not showing up. They're just not on the map. Yeah, but…
Chris Steyn (08:29.022)
I was going to ask you, there have been some really disappointing results for some of these smaller parties that have campaigned so hard.
Ray Hartley (08:39.479)
But again, I think it plays into this picture of the way the vote is coming through. Because I think that parties like BOSA, RiseMzansi and ActionSA, they're going to get urban support. So it's probably not surprising that they're very low at this point because of their preponderance of rural results.
Chris Steyn (08:48.478)
ActionSA
Chris Steyn (09:01.502)
So would you like to venture a call at this stage?
Ray Hartley (09:06.743)
At this stage I think the ANC is probably going to come in below 50. A lot hangs on what happens in Gauteng. So, you know, that's a big unknown. And of course the other provinces like Limpopo, Northwest, and Mpumalanga are going to play into that as well. But I think that it's too much for them to make up given the hammering, the clear hammering they're taking in KZN, to get above 50.
Chris Steyn (09:39.902)
Okay, well, it is early, as you say, but thank you very, very much for analyzing and dissecting what has come in so far. That was Ray Hartley of The Brenthurst Foundation speaking to BizNews on the morning after South Africa went to the polls in the most important election since 1994. Thank you, Ray.
Ray Hartley (10:02.199)
Thank you.
Chris Steyn (10:04.382)
Thank you.
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