Popular BizNews Premium columnist RW Johnson has been deeply involved in this year’s Election, working behind the scenes at broadcaster eNCA. Now the dust has settled, he outlines the key consequences – explaining why the ANC will partner with the DA; and an MK/IFP coalition work together to run an increasingly independent KZN. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
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Highlights from the Interview
In an interview with Alec Hogg, political scientist R.W. Johnson discusses the significant shifts observed in the 2024 South African election results. Johnson’s accurate polling, which predicted the ANC’s decline to early double figures and the rise of MK to nearly 50%, reflects a dramatic political landscape change. Despite skepticism from many, these results confirm the polling accuracy conducted for ENCA.
Johnson delves into the implications of these results, focusing on the potential coalitions that could emerge. He expresses doubts about a sustainable ANC-EFF alliance, noting the economic calamity that such a coalition might bring and the internal discomfort within the ANC regarding this partnership. Instead, Johnson suggests that the ANC might be compelled to form a coalition with the DA, driven by economic pragmatism and pressure from financial authorities.
The conversation also covers regional political dynamics, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), where MK is expected to align with the IFP due to shared interests in Zulu traditional authority. Johnson highlights the dire state of Durban, attributing it to corruption and mismanagement by the Zuma faction of the ANC, and expresses concern over MK’s future governance capabilities given its dependency on Jacob Zuma.
Johnson discusses the deeper issue of tribalism in South African politics, particularly Zulu solidarity, which has significantly impacted the election outcomes in KZN. He predicts increased devolution of power to the provinces, with KZN potentially seeking greater independence from the national government. Overall, Johnson provides a comprehensive analysis of the election results, the likely political alliances, and the regional and cultural factors influencing South African politics.
Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Alec Hogg (00:31.214)
R.W. Johnson is a political scientist, author, and columnist. Lovely to have you on the program. Just a couple of days after the election results, no big surprise because at the news conference, you let it out that the MK was polling incredibly high, close to 50 percent, and the ANC had gone down into early double figures. It sounded almost too big a change to believe. But here we have it. Your polling for ENCA was very close to the final result.
RW Johnson (01:13.946)
Well, it was in that respect. We were bang on with MK both in the TAL and KZN and within the country. We were within a percentage point in both cases. We were less good on the Patriotic Alliance and somewhat light on the DA, which did slightly better than we thought. But overall, the polls were good.
Alec Hogg (01:46.894)
And now it’s all about coalitions. You’ve thought that the ANC and the EFF were a natural coalition partnership. Are you still feeling that that’s a likely outcome?
RW Johnson (02:13.658)
Well, more people inside the ANC would feel comfortable about that than making a deal with the DA. But the reasons not to do it are very powerful, to do with the financial world and the complete calamity that would overtake the economy. If the ANC made a deal with the EFF, it wouldn’t last. They would realize it was a disaster.
Alec Hogg (03:02.094)
And what about the negotiations with the DA? Helen Zille leads the team, which includes Tony Leon, not the leader, John Steenhuisen. Is that a disadvantage?
RW Johnson (03:26.522)
No, because I would be surprised if Ramaphosa were sitting around the table either. Both sides will depute a team to do it, and there are advantages in not having your leaders there. They’ll have to find one another in the same way that the National Party and ANC negotiators had to find one another in 1994. It’s a whole new political world.
Alec Hogg (04:07.662)
How so?
RW Johnson (04:12.538)
The ANC’s authority has gone. They are unlikely to get it back. They’ve got to adjust to a world where they’re just one other party and had a humiliating rebuff from the electorate. This is a very different scenario.
Alec Hogg (05:03.726)
Help us through here, Bill. The nation is very confused. We’ve had a 30-year rule by the ANC. Is it binary? Either the ANC has a coalition with the DA, which will catapult the country forward, or it goes into what he called the Chernobyl option. Is he exaggerating?
RW Johnson (05:39.002)
No, broadly speaking, if you do a deal with the populists who are keen to get their hand in the till, you’ll be back in the worst possible situation. A deal with the DA would be a much more serious thing about running the country.
Alec Hogg (06:18.254)
When we go back to the KwaZulu-Natal provincial outcome, are you able to give us some insight into how that might all unfold?
RW Johnson (06:54.042)
I would expect MK to make a deal with the IFP. MK took a strong line about Zulu patriarchal authority, which goes down well with the IFP. There’s no bad feeling between those two parties in the way there is between ANC and MK. But the problems in KZN are dreadful because Durban is in the most appalling state, run into the ground by the RET faction of the ANC.
Alec Hogg (09:14.606)
Is there any chance that the others might get together and bring in one or two smaller parties to get that extra one and a half percent?
RW Johnson (09:32.442)
I doubt it. You’d need just about everybody else, including the EFF, who would not do a deal against the MK. So I don’t think there’s a plausible alternative.
Alec Hogg (10:29.87)
Bill, from a cultural perspective, the EFF and MK are authoritarian, while the ANC relies on the National Executive Committee. Does that make them poor partners?
RW Johnson (11:01.146)
Well, they’re all splinters from the ANC. But I don’t think there’s any likelihood of ANC teaming up with MK. The feeling is too bad, and MK requires that Ramaphosa step down, which the ANC isn’t accepting.
Alec Hogg (12:18.03)
So how are you seeing it at a national level given that MK and ANC are unlikely bedfellows?
RW Johnson (12:27.834)
They’ll be forced towards the DA because the finance minister and the governor of the central bank will say if you go with the EFF, I can’t answer for what happens next.
Alec Hogg (12:57.294)
On another provincial level, how can you see that all playing out?
RW Johnson (13:04.002)
The ANC has taken quite a big hiding in Gauteng. Even if you add together ANC and EFF, it’s not quite enough. You might get some sort of ANC-DA alliance in that province.
Alec Hogg (14:25.87)
Is it possible the ANC would go with the EFF and perhaps Patriotic Alliance in Gauteng, then do a separate deal at a national level with the DA?
RW Johnson (14:49.274)
All these things are possible. There will be provinces where the only possible coalition is ANC-EFF.
Alec Hogg (15:15.534)
Getting back to what people in South Africa think about this election, do you have reason for hope or grave concern?
RW Johnson (15:29.722)
I think it is quite hopeful. There’s a chance of serious reforms. But powerful people within the ANC who don’t want things to change will oppose a deal with the DA. That’s a problem that has to be faced.
Alec Hogg (18:05.742)
We’ve seen MK is well funded, with regalia including Putin alongside Jacob Zuma. How real is that influence by the Russians?
RW Johnson (18:30.394)
It’s not hidden. They’re not telling us, but the media should ask. I suspect all their deals are done with Zuma himself.
Alec Hogg (19:08.942)
If Zuma were to pass or get sick, would that be the end of MK?
RW Johnson (19:23.29)
There would be family dynasty attempts to take over, though neither the daughter or the son we’ve seen seem very promising. It’s a huge question mark.
Alec Hogg (20:24.142)
Two points from your columns: Zulu tribal solidarity in KwaZulu-Natal and anti-ANC sentiment. Can you elaborate on that?
RW Johnson (21:01.978)
The ANC found it difficult to overcome ethnic differences. Ethnic politics is important in Africa and still exists in South Africa. Zulus are the biggest, most cohesive group, with a central institution like the Zulu monarchy, giving them a solidarity and cohesion other groups lack.
Alec Hogg (23:58.734)
Would that lead to greater devolution of power into the provinces?
RW Johnson (24:06.586)
KZN is declaring UDI. MK and its allies in KwaZulu-Natal are going to insist they run that province without being told what to do by the center. They will be much more independent than any province we’ve seen.
Alec Hogg (25:03.758)
I’m W. Johnson and I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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