With the Government of National Unity having been in power for over two months already, BizNews asked Dr. Ina Gouws of the Department of Political Studies and Governance at Free State University for her impressions. She dissects the early achievements of the GNU as well as the coalition chaos at provincial and municipal level. She doesn’t think there’s “a better strategist” than Vice President Paul Mashatile “in terms of moving himself and manoeuvring himself into certain positions and being able to find himself in the right place at the right time for his own sake.” Analysing the defection of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) deputy president Floyd Shivambu to MK were he is now the National Organiser, she says” “His hatred that he displayed in Parliament of Jacob Zuma and what he’s done seemingly disappeared at a moment where opportunity was given to him to maybe take up that position. And maybe he has ambitions to one day lead MK or lead this grand leftist progressive coalition to challenge the Government of National Unity…” Meanwhile, she feels it is just a matter of time before the African National Congress (ANC) “reigns in” the GNU-defiant Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi. As for Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA getting into bed with the ANC in Joburg, she comments: “What they are willing to do on local level and willing to tolerate and willing to protect even for seemingly the sake of just keeping the DA out…”
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Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chris Steyn (00:02.196)
The Government of National Unity has been in power for over two months already. We asked Dr. Ina Gouws of the Department of Political Studies and Governance at Free State University for her impressions. Welcome, Dr. Gouws.
Dr Ina Gouws (00:17.4)
Thank you for having me again.
Chris Steyn (00:20.244)
How would you encapsulate the first few months of GNU rule?
Dr Ina Gouws (00:26.178)
Yeah, it’s something to behold actually. We all thought there to beginning that they were taking a bit of time to get this, the Government of National Unity established and to get these negotiations done.
And yet, when you look at the the grand scheme of things, you know, coalitions worldwide or governments of this nature worldwide, they actually accomplished this in a very short period of time. And looking back now, it is quite, you know, an accomplishment really when you look at it.
And then the government itself, two months is not a long time to really get a comprehensive picture of what this government can achieve. What you can see is movement within certain departments, which became quite evident rather quickly. And yes, it is ministers from parties outside of the ANC that seems to be, you know, hoarding the spotlight at the moment when it comes to some of these things we see. That doesn’t mean other ministers are not working very hard where they are. There are just certain things that captures attention, especially from the media side. When they get done, when they get talked about, when they get communicated from those departments.
Dr Ina Gouws (02:19.02)
And the main thing is if you can already see a type of difference in what these plans or these implementations are. And of course, we look to the future of what possible outcome these changes can have. And there are certain things that South Africans seems to be quite positive about. Certain things that are apprehensive about, certain things I don’t understand yet, which is completely understandable. And for that we need time to reflect on when we look back to see what this government does – and if it stays stable.
At the moment it is, and if it stays this way, especially when we think about the run-up to the municipal elections next year when the campaigns start and they have to get into each other again. That’s particularly on local level where the destruction is really the worst and the government governance failures are the worst. So the criticism is much worse, especially on local level. So when they get into each other in those campaigns and we can kind of talk about the local coalitions in a bit. But then we’re going to see, can they separate themselves from those processes? Can those ministers in those positions do their job, be able to be part of a campaign? What will happen to a leader like John Steenhuisen, who is a Minister in the National Unity, but now also the leader of a party who must run this campaign and be really critical – especially towards ANC-run municipalities. And those dynamics are going to be very interesting. And we don’t know what impact that’s going to have on this unity aspect of the Government of National Unity.
Chris Steyn (04:27.114)
While we’re talking about provincial and local coalitions, there has been chaos. And in Gauteng, in Johannesburg, Action SA has gone into a working relationship with the African National Congress, much to the dismay of the Democratic Alliance. ActionSA is also heading towards Tshwane to try and oust the Democratic Alliance there. What do you think this could mean for national politics in the long run?
Dr Ina Gouws (05:04.854)
I think it will inevitably have to impact it, especially when it becomes possible for these provinces to change hands and for big metros, big important metros, to change hands. The approach from ActionSA is under scrutiny at the moment. It would seem that a real grudge against the DA exists from the leadership of Action SA and it’s difficult for them to hide that in their statements and in the way of going about this and particularly in light of the fact that they unequivocally said that they will never work with the ANC in government. And now that they have, they say, yes, well, we change our mind. The DA changed their mind when it came to national government. Why can’t we? But they failed to understand the the dynamics of local government politics. Having these arrangements on national level is one thing. Having them on local level where the damage was really significant, particularly in Johannesburg, and particularly from an ANC government, and the chaos that existed when an utterly inept mayor was put in place – and, you know, which exacerbated the damage even further. And for ActionSA to say now okay we will keep the people who made these decisions in power and we will keep them; we will give put a mayor in place who was part of, you know, evident corruption in previous administration and in his previous roles and put such a person forward and accept that they put him in place again as as a man, someone who outright said he’s not going to change much, you know, in the near future.
Dr Ina Gouws (07:25.842)
What does that say to residents? Who needs to be able to, who will go and vote next year? What does it say to them about this government, this ANC people, and the people they put forward as leaders? And what does it say to them about Action SA and their approach? What they are willing to do on local level and willing to tolerate and willing to protect even for seemingly the sake of just keeping the DA out because that’s what it sounds like.
Dr Ina Gouws (08:09.55)
And if ultimately they get into some sort of power because they now have people, they have the Speaker, their Action SA and they have certain people that they are lining up to be part of this new coalition, if they can in a few months’ time show significant governance changes that can convince voters in Johannesburg, let’s listen, it is not just about our grudge against the DA. It is about us thinking we can do this and in a better way. They don’t have much time.
And the squabbling needs to end. And their message needs to end. Needs to be much different than, you know, the DA is arrogant. That cannot be the message continuing forward.
So yeah, the same in Pretoria. They have a mayor that people seem to trust and who is under very difficult circumstances, seemingly trying to do constructive work in that. Action SA will have to have a very good argument to take him out of that position. So they have difficulty there.
And when it comes to the province itself, Panyaza Lesufi on a particular mission, I believe. When it comes to his own position, the future of his own career and his position within the ANC and his factionalism within the ANC, which seems to be one of more to the left, more to the radical side, more to the side of cooperation of people like the EFF and MK and so forth, instead of more centrist parties like the DA and IFP and so forth. And he defied the national leadership of the ANC, plain and simple defied them.
Dr Ina Gouws (10:22.594)
And I think there is a problem for them right now. I don’t think they quite know what to do with him. And it seems that he thinks he has carte blanche to say what he wants, to do what he wants. And he makes noises of, you know, they must pull up their socks and see if he’s going to die if they don’t. And it all sounds good. But on the ground, he makes decisions that are very crude. And, as I said, he defies the ANC leadership when comes to their approach to government now, after the elections.
But knowing the ANC, and I can be wrong here, but I don’t think I am, there are no doubt mechanisms in the background who are moving slowly but very surely to deal with him in some sort of way going forward. I don’t think they’re gonna just leave him. And we will see how that is. They won’t do it out in the open. That’s not the ANC way. You’ll just see at some point that he gets reigned in.
Chris Steyn (11:33.512)
It’s not only the Gauteng Premier who is openly pro the RET faction and who has made it clear that he will work with the Economic Freedom Fighters and in future with MKP. But on a more subtle level, Vice President Paul Mashatile is also perceived to be pro those factions. And meanwhile, MK is gearing up for the local elections and positioning itself towards becoming the official opposition, if not more, in the next elections. How do you see that playing out?
Dr Ina Gouws (12:12.878)
Yeah, you’re absolutely right, Paul Mashatile. You know, he’s a very specific character in ANC politics. I don’t think there’s a better strategist in terms of moving himself and maneuvering himself in certain positions and being able to find himself in the right place at the right time for his own sake – specifically now as the Vice President and a very unimpactful, Vice President, really. He’s put a bit of a spotlight again on AIDS and HIV research and so forth for a moment, which we can commend him for, but again, you have to ask, in his particular context, who benefits in the end from that. And unfortunately, those are the kinds of questions that will surround him for ever because of the clouds of corruption that goes with him wherever he goes. But he seems to be able to deal with these things and to never get to be held accountable. So he’s very good at what he does to keep himself safe and in certain position that gives him clout.
Dr Ina Gouws (13:55.114)
Now when it comes to his support within the ANC, certainly it is more the RET faction than the sort of Ramaphosa faction. They have gotten a bit of a klap during the election. So there’s a bit of regrouping that needs to happen in that faction. And inevitably, especially when you think that they might feel a little bit desperate, they might go to people like the MK and say, listen, yes, we have this history with Jacob Zuma, but it’s not us who really wanted him out. This RET faction, it’s the others. So let’s see if we can have a conversation and what that might mean then for cooperation coming into campaigns to come.
The other thing now that I have to take into account is the state of MK as it is right now. It’s not a very stable party at the moment. Lots of infighting and very much a dictatorship type of leadership, which not many of them are going to stay happy with, I think. When it comes to who gets to make decisions, who gets to become, you know, members of parliament, which is really where people want to be. They want to be, you know, members of parliament and they want to be deployed there. And now with their leaders who are just coming in and seemingly taking over from, like Floyd Shivambo from the EFF, who weren’t there from the beginning, but who now find himself to be, you know, one of the main guys…and what that would mean for everybody else and where these alliances will be in these factions within the MK already.
So what this party shows us is utter immaturity at the moment. So whoever decides to throw in their weight with MK must be very, very careful and think very, very carefully about what in the end can come from it.
Dr Ina Gouws (16:15.754)
If they don’t stabilise themselves, organise themselves, if they’re gonna be in court cases forever with regards to membership and leadership and so forth, if they can’t show besides Jacob Zuma and his daughter emerging leaders who give direction to this party in a very intellectual and organised way, they are going to die as a party.
Chris Steyn (16:53.14)
Don’t you think Floyd Shivambo is going to make a difference as National Organiser?
Dr Ina Gouws (16:58.56)
I don’t know. I’m telling you right now, I don’t know. The fact that he’s there and that he left the ANC was a huge surprise for those who were not part of the inner conversations in the party and the inner dynamics.
What’s coming out now in the news reports and so forth, and after the fact is evidence of the interactions between him and Julius Malema and Julius’s handling of being part of the Government of National Unity and then pulling out and what that meant for Floyd and his plans and will he ever be leader of the EFF or will he ever get a chance to lead anyway?
Dr Ina Gouws (17:55.937)
His hatred that he displayed in Parliament of Jacob Zuma and what he’s done seemingly disappeared at a moment where opportunity was given to him to maybe take up that position.
And maybe he has ambitions to one day lead MK or lead this grand leftist progressive coalition to challenge the Government of National Unity, which I think is an ambition, is to sort of pull all these parties and groups together under a progressive left grouping and really challenging them.
So, and he’s now an organiser in MK. And again, what will he be allowed to do if he starts to challenge this leadership of Jacob Zuma and his family and his trusted advisors and so forth? Will he still be so welcome as he is now because he is not the kind of guy who will just sit on the sidelines and say yes and Amen. He did that already. And he wants to move away from that.
Chris Steyn (19:28.574)
Obviously, ructions, coalition ructions at local and provincial level could threaten the configuration of a future coalition government. The DA has taken another hit in the Western Cape in Oudtshooorn, where the Freedom Front Plus turned its back on an alliance. So how do you see the DA struggle to impose national unity on the provinces and on the municipalities? And how do you think they could achieve that to ensure that the configuration of a future Government of National Unity is not in huge jeopardy?
Dr Ina Gouws (20:18.344)
I think it is difficult for them. I mean they have a province that they outright govern and did so quite well.
Dr Ina Gouws (20:25.26)
They have a good track record. It is simply a fact. And it is something that they, to a certain extent, actually can boast with and they’re doing really well in the province and particularly in Cape Town as well with very effective mayors.
The thing is, it seems to be that the feeling of opposition parties, of those who oppose the DA, that they are arrogant. And yes, to a certain extent for me, that is a ridiculous statement. They are boasting with a good track record, which they are, in my opinion, you know, should be able to do because they have done the work. But if they see this there’s damage being done, then they should sit and reflect. What is our approach? Is our approach offensive? Is it doing damage to relationships? And if that is the case, you then have to make adjustments.
If it is just out of spitefulness, that the Freedom Front Plus and so forth say listen, you know, we want to take the lead. We want to be the centre of whatever coalition there is. We want to call the shots and also show what we can do. You know, they may have to be very careful of which partners they go forth with in such a coalition.
Dr Ina Gouws (22:20.566)
And if cooperation is possible, first of all – and if it is, will they be able to maintain it? Because thet don’t have so much experience. I have, but not as much. So it’s plain politics, in my opinion, that is not always rational, that is for the sake of optics,
Dr Ina Gouws (22:48.448)
I think, and what must be considered and that you don’t hear in any of these conversations of, yes, but the DA is arrogant or this or that, is we will be best for the people in Oudtshoorn. You don’t hear or get a message that says they did this. It wasn’t best for the town – and we will step in and fix that. That is not the message you ever hear. And that to me makes any of these navigations from parties like the FF suspect. It tells me that the goal here, the objective here is not as you say in all of your manifestos and everything; better service delivery for the sake of people. It’s for the sake of yourself. And how is that different from anyone like the ANC or MK or EFF or whoever you oppose the whole time? Bring me a message that says you are going to be best for Oudtshoorn – and convince me of that fact, and then we can have a conversation.
Dr Ina Gouws (24:10.316)
And none of these parties seems to be focusing on that aspect – and you’re gonna have to because voters have shown that they’re tired of nonsense. They are tired of, you know, boasting and speaking, lots of speeches and things. They’ve shown this. And if you come with this nonsense running up to the municipal elections and it doesn’t seem to be going to help me where I live in my town and in my pocket with the taxes I pay and everything, you’re going to suffer.
Chris Steyn (24:53.522)
Indeed. Thank you. That was Dr. Ina Gouws of the Department of Political Studies and Governance at Free State University, giving her take on over two months of rule of South Africa’s new Government of National Unity. Not so new, no. Thank you, Dr. Gouws, and I’m Chris Steyn.
Dr Ina Gouws (25:13.838)
Thank you.
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