It is now 88 days since South Africa’s Government of National Unity was formalised by appointing a multi-party national cabinet. The alliance’s longevity faced an acid test in today’s motion of no confidence in Tshwane executive mayor Cilliers Brink which carried by 120 votes to 87. Political scientist Dr Frans Cronjé provides context, explaining how the capital city councillor’s vote signals the first crack in the GNU.
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Highlights from the Interview
In an interview with Alec Hogg, Frans Cronje, chairman of the Social Research Foundation, discussed South Africa’s political landscape, focusing on coalitions and the dynamics between the ANC and DA. Cronje explained that by-elections provide insight into voter sentiment but can be tricky, as they often reflect local circumstances rather than national trends. He mentioned that upcoming data from a national survey on the Government of National Unity (GNU) would provide a clearer indication of public opinion towards the ANC-DA coalition.
Cronje emphasized that the coalition works because the two parties draw support from different constituencies, with the DA holding 20-30% and the ANC remaining in the 40s. This division makes it difficult for either party to encroach on the other’s base. However, tensions could arise if one party starts losing ground to the other.
He warned that a populist faction within the ANC could destabilize the coalition and ultimately lead to the ANC’s decline, with their support potentially dropping into the 20s. In such a scenario, the DA and emerging parties could benefit in the long term. Cronje concluded by stressing the importance of pragmatic leadership in maintaining the coalition’s stability and avoiding a populist agenda.
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Edited transcript of the Interview
00:00:07:19 – 00:00:38:03
Alec Hogg:
We’re learning more and more here in South Africa that politics is becoming a spectator sport. And it certainly is right now in the city of Tshwane, where there is a motion of no confidence in the mayor. It might sound like something, well, out of the ordinary, but it’s very out of the ordinary. Frans Cronje, the chairman of the board of the Social Research Foundation, will explain to us what’s going on.
00:00:38:05 – 00:00:48:15
Alec Hogg:
Frans, good to be talking with you. It is strange, isn’t it, to ever have politics as a spectator sport nowadays? Almost, but here in South Africa, there is so much at stake.
00:00:48:17 – 00:01:16:18
Frans Cronje:
Yeah, no, no, there it is. And there’s a lot at stake. As we speak, Tshwane is under a coalition government, but unlike the national coalition, which includes the ANC, in this coalition, the ANC is only a part. The DA has the most, with a chap called Cilliers Brink, supported by some smaller opposition parties, including others on the side.
00:01:16:20 – 00:01:48:09
Frans Cronje:
What’s happening at the moment is there might be a motion of no confidence vote against him in the council. Now, this is extremely important, as it’s the first firm directional indicator we’ve got since the election about whether the GNU holds together. The reason is this: it’s a bit of an oversimplification, but it works to convey the point.
00:01:48:11 – 00:02:31:01
Frans Cronje:
Mr. Ramaphosa obviously struck the GNU deal with the DA around Mr. Steenhuisen, and they broadly supported it. But there are dissidents in the ANC who oppose the GNU deal as it stands and would prefer a deal with the EFF and MK. A nucleus of these dissidents exists in Gauteng, and this group, working closely with ASA and Herman Mashaba, has taken the politics of that city to the point where this motion was called.
00:02:31:03 – 00:03:13:09
Frans Cronje:
There are different ways this can play out. If the motion succeeds and Brink is removed, what it means is that Ramaphosa—and the read you might make of it—is that Ramaphosa and his pro-GNU ANC group have been defeated. And that’s extremely important because that’s a small crack in the GNU. But that crack could widen all the way up to December 2027 when the ANC picks a new leader.
00:03:13:11 – 00:03:41:06
Frans Cronje:
And it could very well be that if the balance of power in the ANC is not in favor of Mr. Ramaphosa, the ANC could pick a leader who collapses the GNU deal and instead does a deal with the EFF. So, if this vote succeeds against Brink today, that little crack opens, and we’re going to watch it very closely.
00:03:41:06 – 00:04:13:23
Frans Cronje:
Maybe it becomes a chasm by December 2027. The second outcome is that at the very last minute, and things are ongoing live as we speak—so not just spectator politics—the ballot could be recalled or someone could get cold feet and back out, and nothing happens. The third option is the vote could be defeated, and Brink remains mayor.
00:04:14:01 – 00:04:50:07
Frans Cronje:
In that case, the ANC dissidents, the nucleus of resistance that wants to collapse the GNU, would have had a setback. They become somewhat isolated. In the aftermath of that, the deal in Tshwane becomes DA/ANC, with Brink as mayor and perhaps an ANC deputy mayor. That could be a very firm statement that the pro-GNU balance of power inside the ANC is solid, and you’d read from there the trajectory toward 2027.
00:04:50:07 – 00:05:13:20
Frans Cronje:
So this isn’t the end by any means, but the read would be that the balance of power inside the ANC is in favor of a leadership transition in December 2027, which would likely see the GNU survive. So, you know, we’ve had the election, all the excitement, government formed, but this is the first solid directional indicator of what’s happening.
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00:05:13:20 – 00:05:24:05
Frans Cronje:
It’s coming now, and it’s the most important thing you could watch since the election regarding where South Africa is headed, I think, this vote.
00:05:24:07 – 00:05:25:23
Alec Hogg:
Is it secret?
00:05:26:11 – 00:05:56:17
Frans Cronje:
Not necessarily. In fact, I just asked the question, and at this stage, it’s not necessarily secret. That’s very important because if it is secret, all kinds of weirdness could happen. Our estimation of the position is that the ANC around Mr. Ramaphosa is pretty firm on the DA/ANC deal.
00:06:25:15 – 00:06:49:12
Frans Cronje:
As I said, it’s more complicated than that—the provincial leadership structure of the ANC itself. So, if it is a secret ballot, the thing that brings my sense of this whole situation, and the variations of what could happen, is quite important.
00:06:49:12 – 00:07:14:19
Frans Cronje:
I think that’s our estimate—we may be wrong, but that’s how the factions align. Now we are going to see this test. Look, they’ve succeeded in Johannesburg. In fact, they’ve kept the DA out there. They’ve kept the DA out of Gauteng. If they now defeat this government in Tshwane and have their way again, you must take them very seriously.
00:07:14:21 – 00:07:23:08
Alec Hogg:
Would that start triggering the “Chernobyl option” that you told us about in the immediate aftermath of the election?
00:07:23:14 – 00:07:46:23
Frans Cronje:
No, to be explicit, no. It doesn’t trigger Chernobyl in the sense that what it says is there’s a lot of ground to cover between now and the local government elections in 2026, and even more distance until December 2027. So, it’s not Chernobyl—not that at all.
00:07:46:23 – 00:08:29:21
Frans Cronje:
All it is, is a small crack that’s opened. But if that crack widens and becomes a chasm, then one day, far into the future, if the GNU collapses and you get an ANC-EFF-MK government, you might look back and say, “That vote in Tshwane was the first sign that Ramaphosa’s grip on the ANC was not as firm as supporters of the GNU, including those within the ANC, would like to believe.”
00:08:30:08 – 00:08:35:03
Frans Cronje:
That’s why it’s important.
00:08:35:03 – 00:09:01:14
Alec Hogg:
It’s the richest province in South Africa, but it’s not all of South Africa—it’s one of nine provinces. How relevant is what’s going on there for the nation as a whole? Because Ramaphosa and the Government of National Unity, or GNU as we describe it, have made excellent progress. Whoever’s watching, from wherever, has given it a big thumbs-up, and that is good news.
00:09:01:14 – 00:09:13:23
Alec Hogg:
But, on the other hand, it appears as though one part of the ANC in one of the nine provinces might be attempting to hijack the whole national interest.
00:09:14:01 – 00:09:38:00
Frans Cronje:
Not entirely. There are, of course, factions within the ANC, and Gauteng is important to the future of the ANC. We’ve said it before on your show: the ANC in this election got 40% of its votes from the urban periphery and aspirant middle-class townships, but it also got 40% from rural areas. It can’t survive on just the rural vote.
00:09:38:02 – 00:10:04:23
Frans Cronje:
That rural vote is eroding due to mortality and emigration. So, to remain relevant, it needs to capture the aspirant middle-class vote on the urban periphery. The DA struggles to capture that vote because it has been so stigmatized in the media. The DA holds the established middle class, but broadly speaking, these dynamics are largely true.
00:10:05:01 – 00:10:34:00
Frans Cronje:
What the ANC-GNU strategists, in favor of the DA/ANC coalition, understood is that the interests of the established multi-generational suburban middle class, the DA base, and the interests of the aspirant middle class on the urban fringe are the same. They benefit from the same policies and suffer from the same policy mistakes.
00:10:34:02 – 00:10:57:21
Frans Cronje:
In many respects, this GNU worked because what the DA would work towards and what the ANC would work towards were mutually reinforcing. The two sides couldn’t easily “fish in each other’s pockets,” like a tribe that could get terribly far. Therefore, you don’t have this terrible contestation over support.
00:10:57:21 – 00:11:22:23
Frans Cronje
And this goes back to the old idea that coalitions work better between parties that don’t have a lot in common, rather than this moronic idea that exists, which suggests coalitions must be between people who share identical values, views, and constituents. That’s a recipe for terrible conflict. So, if you puzzle through this, it’s kind of hard to see it any other way.
00:11:23:02 – 00:12:02:11
Frans Cronje
Then, you know, malfeasance and all sorts of underhanded interests come into play. The strategic move for the ANC crowd that wishes to collapse the GNU and instead go to a populist government undermines the prospects of the established middle class. They would align with parties who are direct competitors for their own voters. It’s not a strategy here to support the established, standing national GNU. The solid and clear strategy that works is being undermined.
00:12:02:11 – 00:12:42:05
Frans Cronje
And the good reason to pursue this plan is simply for the ANC to avoid inviting the consequences it has already suffered over the past decade. Its support collapsed because it was unable, through sensible, pragmatic policies that invited growth and investment, to realize the aspirations of the urban periphery. The crowd trying to sink this deal must have no doubt about the consequences for sentiment or investment in the country.
00:12:42:16 – 00:12:53:03
Frans Cronje
If they do, in fact, go ahead over the next few years and collapse the story of the GNU, then they’re just going to hemorrhage even more support for the ANC than they’ve already lost.
00:12:53:05 – 00:12:57:22
Alec Hogg
So why would they do it? What is the motive?
00:12:58:00 – 00:13:29:20
Frans Cronje
You know about MICE—M-I-C-E is a great thing. If a political actor, whatever the scenario, starts behaving peculiarly, you could say to a young analyst, “Go and figure out what’s going on.” The four things you test for are: M, for Money—has money changed hands? Is this corruption? We don’t know, I can’t say. The second is Ideology—are there deep ideological differences that would motivate someone to collapse this? Maybe.
00:13:29:22 – 00:14:04:21
Frans Cronje
The third is Compromise—what the Russians call kompromat, compromising information. Do you have leverage over your opponents? Do you know things about them that they’d want to keep concealed? The fourth is Ego, a major driver of behavior. Which of these is the driving factor here? I can’t say. The answer lies in one or a combination of the four MICE factors.
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00:14:04:21 – 00:14:28:03
Alec Hogg
And as far as Herman Mashaba is concerned, is he just a bit player in all of this? The ActionSA leader who ended the coalition by saying he would support those he had vowed never to support in the past?
00:14:28:05 – 00:15:17:15
Frans Cronje
Look, I don’t see the strategic play. As I’ve said before, ActionSA had such tremendous potential on, let’s say, the urban fringe, to make deep inroads into the ANC voter base. But it appears to have disabled itself. If you ask why, you’d apply the MICE acronym again, and somewhere in a combination of those factors, you’ll find the reason.
00:15:17:17 – 00:15:48:20
Alec Hogg
Frans, if I look back at the by-elections since the coalition government has been in place, there have been only five. All of them were won very comfortably by the Democratic Alliance, with increased votes. One, on the 28th of August in Ward 92, saw them go from 34% to 59%. In two of the other wards, they went from 60% to 62%, and in another, from 70% to 98.6%.
00:15:48:22 – 00:16:11:23
Alec Hogg:
So it’s telling us that those who are voting in by-elections in Tshwane, where all of this is happening, seem to be pretty happy with the way that the coalition is going. If that’s true, then surely those who are trying to kibosh it are going to pay a big price come 2026 in the local elections.
00:16:12:03 – 00:16:37:23
Frans Cronje:
By-elections are tricky things, though. There are some people who really exploit by-elections and are able to use them very effectively to, to, to answer questions like that. I’m not one of them. I haven’t even followed the four that you speak of. Maybe there were peculiar domestic circumstances. We do have data coming out probably in the next week or so.
00:16:38:01 – 00:17:01:20
Frans Cronje:
It will be the first sort of mass field survey of national opinion towards the GNU. So we’ll get a bit of a directional indicator there on support for the party’s stance. But, well, what I would say to you again is what I was getting to earlier — that the ANC/DA GNU works because the two sides can’t fish effectively in each other’s pockets.
00:17:01:22 – 00:17:28:12
Frans Cronje:
And that will, for a long time, remain the case. There are deeply researched and well-understood reasons for that, and I think that still overwhelmingly holds true. I suppose the ideal thing that both parties would want to see in the data we put out next week is that both of them have seen their support increase chiefly in and around their core constituencies.
00:17:28:12 – 00:17:52:21
Frans Cronje:
But if that data starts to show, for example, that one is losing ground to the other, then that’s going to introduce all manner of tensions into the GNU on both sides. The dissidents don’t only sit in the ANC — there are some good people around.
00:17:52:21 – 00:18:23:06
Frans Cronje:
The DA, you know, must be very cautious about a broader national coalition — not like the Pretoria one. There are valid arguments, but I think the way this thing holds together is that the leadership understands — which I think has been understood — that we work effectively as partners because it’s very difficult for either side to fish in the other’s pond.
00:18:23:06 – 00:19:07:04
Frans Cronje:
The DA is a 20 to 25, maybe on a great day, 30% party. The ANC is a party that can hold levels in the 40s. And the interests of our constituents are aligned. And, of course, we must compete — the ANC must try to get more, it must try and get back to 50%. If it governs well, maybe it will. But I think if a faction in the ANC gains the upper hand that decides to double down on the populist path, the effect of that — if we remain a free society — will be to set in motion a chain of events that could knock ANC support way back into the 20s.
00:19:07:04 – 00:19:49:00
Frans Cronje:
Then the DA — and, you know, we don’t know what future parties might be around — would have, in the longer term, the plausible route to success. A populist ANC pulling off a national majority… whoever in the ANC thinks that what they’re doing is a good idea is doing something extremely dangerous for themselves. They may simply accelerate the steep descent that the recent election results showed us the ANC is already on.
00:19:50:06 – 00:19:55:17
Alec Hogg:
Frans Cronje is the chairman of the Social Research Foundation. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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