In a recent interview on BizNews Radio, Dr. Frans Cronje, chairman of the Social Research Foundation, provided insights into the public’s perception of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africa, approximately 100 days after its formation. He reported a significant uptick in support for the ANC, which has risen from 40% to 45% in voter preference, suggesting a potential return to over 50% if current trends continue. While the DA has also seen slight gains, concerns remain for smaller parties like the EFF, which has lost considerable support. Cronje emphasized that while both the ANC and DA appear to be performing well within the GNU, the future depends on the government’s ability to deliver tangible improvements in citizens’ lives. If they fail to do so, the shifting sentiments among moderate voters could open the door for a resurgence of more radical parties.
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Edited transcript of the interview  ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
00:00:09:12 – 00:00:23:12
Alec Hogg
Doctor Frans Cronje, the chairman of the Social Research Foundation, joins us live streaming through BizNews Radio and, of course, on BizNews TV.
00:00:23:14 – 00:00:53:08
Alec Hogg
Frans, you guys have been in the news a lot lately with the research that has been done. I understand there’s been some confusion. I guess it’s not always easy for reporters to get it right when there’s so much research to analyze. But maybe let’s just do a bit of headline stuff, because the real headline is the new government of national unity.
00:00:53:10 – 00:00:57:10
Alec Hogg
Is it working in South Africa, according to the voters?
00:00:57:12 – 00:01:20:13
Frans Cronje
Yeah, Alec, hi. We’re about 100 days into the GNU. We’ve tested opinion, and I can take you through it piece by piece. You can stop me where you need to. I’ll take you through what we’re seeing. I’m not looking at notes because up here on my screen, I’ve got a lot of the charts. So I’ll take you through what we see.
00:01:20:15 – 00:01:49:04
Frans Cronje
Let’s see what people think. If you ask them, “If elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for?” And we model that for the same turnout as the election three months ago. The ANC’s support is up from 40%âthat’s what we got in the electionâto 45%.
00:01:49:06 – 00:01:59:15
Frans Cronje
Now, the margin of error on the survey is 3%, so we could be three percentage points below or above that figure.
00:01:59:17 – 00:02:12:02
Alec Hogg
Weâve got to stop there. Weâve got to stop at 45%. Thatâs a substantial increaseâmore than 10%, sorry, 5%. But that’s still significant.
00:02:12:04 – 00:02:12:12
Frans Cronje
Yeah.
00:02:12:14 – 00:02:14:04
Alec Hogg
So thatâs big, big numbers.
00:02:14:10 – 00:02:18:22
Frans Cronje
Yes, itâs almost twice the margin of error of the survey.
00:02:19:00 – 00:02:19:22
Alec Hogg
What is it telling you?
00:02:19:23 – 00:02:37:14
Frans Cronje
It suggests that on current trends, this time next year, the ANC will be back above 50%. Weâll talk about whether these trends will hold, but for now, itâs on its way back to 50%.
00:02:37:14 – 00:03:01:20
Alec Hogg
Well, you know, Iâve got to stop you and elaborate a little. In a recent chat with Helen Zille, she saidâand I canât remember if it was on or off the record, but with her, everything’s publicâthat the biggest danger for a minority or smaller party in a coalition is getting wiped out or losing ground next time. From what you’re saying, this seems like a real danger for the DA.
00:03:01:20 – 00:03:09:09
Frans Cronje
Look, the DA is up from 21 point something to 24%. So it’s also up, not as much as the ANC, but still up.
00:03:09:10 – 00:03:46:01
Frans Cronje
Itâs up 2 percentage points, which is 66% of the margin of error. So it’s not as definitive as the ANC’s rise, but still a positive shift.
00:03:46:03 – 00:04:14:07
Frans Cronje
Overall, if you’re in the GNUâand this doesnât apply to everyoneâbut generally, the key anchor tenants of the GNU are up in the last 100 days. The EFF, which is outside the GNU, is down from 9.5% to 6%.
00:04:14:09 – 00:04:15:09
Alec Hogg
Whoa.
00:04:15:14 – 00:04:19:08
Frans Cronje
Thatâs 30% of its support gone.
00:04:19:10 – 00:04:27:00
Alec Hogg
Is that because of Floydâs departure or the VBS scandal, perhaps?
00:04:27:02 – 00:05:12:02
Frans Cronje
Maybe Floydâs departure is a result of itâitâs a chicken-and-egg situation. But the action is clear. The GNU partners are doing well. The MKP is down from 14.6%, and the entire gain in the ANC’s support can be accounted for by the losses in MKP and the EFF. The DA’s gains are accounted for by slippages in ASA and Freedom Front Plus.
Read more: Frans Cronjeâs bold prediction: Is the GNU South Africaâs last hope? â Mike Berger
00:05:52:12 – 00:06:11:18
Frans Cronje
If the current trends holdâlet’s talk about thatâit might disrupt what we’ve seen in the last hundred days. And the DA is not being weakened by the ANC’s growth. So that’s step one for you. Then weâll take you perhaps to a more refined look.
00:06:11:18 – 00:06:37:10
Alec Hogg
Frans, before you go to step two, what about the other two major members of the Government of National Unity? And here Iâm talking about the IFP and the Patriotic Alliance. Weâve seen a lot of publicity around Gayton McKenzieâsome of it not so good. How have they done in those polls, and indeed the IFP as well?
00:06:37:12 – 00:07:02:13
Frans Cronje
The IFP is up inside the GNU from 3.8% to 5%. That’s part of MK. And the pattern is perfect. Gayton McKenzie is up from 2.06% to 4%.
00:07:02:13 – 00:07:04:08
Alec Hogg
Doubling, wow.
00:07:04:10 – 00:07:35:18
Frans Cronje
Yeah, people like the GNU, that’s why. Well, itâs inside the margin of error, but itâs still a significant rise. Whether it has technically doubled or not, it shows strong growth. Itâs because people like the idea of the GNU. So, let’s go to something else. You asked about the African National Congress. Are they performing well or poorly in the GNU?
00:07:35:18 – 00:08:16:18
Frans Cronje
Among people who say they are performing very well or quite well, if you add them together, of all voters, itâs in the low 60sâaround 60-something percent. So, the ANC is doing well in the GNU, which is a very strong number. Among black voters, the ANCâs approval in the GNU is 67%. Thatâs a very strong figure for them to have.
00:08:16:19 – 00:08:53:14
Frans Cronje
Letâs now look at the DA. Are they performing well or poorly in the GNU? For all voters, 67% say they are performing well in the GNU. Among black voters, that number is around 64%. Very strong. This is very interestingâwithin the GNU, the DA gets pretty good reviews from black voters.
00:08:53:16 – 00:09:28:06
Frans Cronje
The DA outside the GNU? Not as much. But these arenât necessarily voters who are going to switch to the DA. They just like the idea of the DAâs performance inside the GNU. And earlier, when we spoke a few weeks ago, one of the things I said to you is that this GNU deal works structurally. The DA constituency is the established, multi-generational middle class, shell-shocked by loadshedding and state capture.
00:09:28:06 – 00:09:59:17
Frans Cronje
But theyâre not going to easily vote for the ANC again, even if it performs well. A core ANC constituency is the aspirant middle class in urban areas. The DA is too stigmatized for them to easily break towards it. So, they may stay in their relative lanes. And thatâs exactly what weâre seeing 100 days inâa strong recovery in ANC support and a recovery in DA support.
00:09:59:18 – 00:10:22:10
Frans Cronje
But theyâre not poaching from each other. If you were the leader of the DA and had a global statesman-like perspective on whatâs best for the country, you might think this is pretty good because weâre not competitors. The DA competes with the Freedom Front, and the ANC competes with the EFF and MK. By excluding some of those partiesânot the Freedom Frontâfrom the GNU, the two anchor tenants of the GNU are seeing their support grow.
00:10:36:22 – 00:11:01:00
Alec Hogg
Frans, Iâm going to ask you to elaborate on that because, getting back to Helen Zilleâshe said at one of the big news conferences, and has repeated numerous times since, that itâs DA versus EFF, and the ANC is yesterdayâs news. From what the polling is telling us now, thatâs not actually what the reality is.
00:11:01:05 – 00:11:21:23
Frans Cronje
Well, I donât know. I havenât spoken to Helen properly in a very long time. I havenât spoken to her or to the DA leadership, so Iâm not sure exactly what sheâs going for. But on a certain level, Helen is of course completely correct. There is a view of the world represented by the EFF, and thereâs a view of the world represented by the DA.
00:11:22:01 – 00:11:58:14
Frans Cronje
These are diametrically opposed, and the ANC is this behemoth of a political organization standing in the middle. It will ultimately have to make a choice, one way or the other, not to lose the countryâs future. So thatâs what she means, and I totally agree with that. Helenâs very good, so Iâm surprised weâd disagree with each other. But, yeah, so thatâs one point. Another point is that the news is very popular now, but weâre only 100 days in.
00:11:58:14 – 00:12:12:22
Frans Cronje
Letâs see what happens after 200 or 300 days. Weâll watch carefully, but this is just the start. Let me show you something else.
00:12:13:00 – 00:12:25:22
Alec Hogg
Gauteng, Gautengâletâs go to Gauteng, Frans, because thatâs an area where we would have hoped that the GNU would have made a bigger impact. And it hasnât.
00:12:26:00 – 00:12:33:00
Frans Cronje
Yeah. Can I? Yes. Give me a minute. I want to show you somethingâitâs very interesting.
00:12:33:02 – 00:12:34:00
Alec Hogg
Okay.
00:12:34:01 – 00:12:57:20
Frans Cronje
So, two votes now. It goes to the point you just made about Helenâs comments. It was the right thing for the ANC to join the GNU. It had to keep the EFF and MK out of power, and whatever compromises it made to do so were worth it.
00:12:57:22 – 00:13:34:21
Frans Cronje
Alternatively, it was a mistake for the ANC to do this. The first statement is that the ANC was right to isolate and banish the EFF. A total of 56-57% of voters agree that the ANC did the right thing. The voters who disagree, saying it was a mistake, make up 37%. So, thereâs a 20 percentage point split between those who think it was the right move and those who think it was wrong.
00:13:34:23 – 00:14:12:05
Frans Cronje
That number is slightly higher than the EFFâs base and the more radical ANC voters. Even when you ask the explicit questionâwas the ANC right to abandon the black nationalist radical parties and break towards what its critics would call the liberal order of the former white opposition to apartheidâpublic support is firmly behind the decision that the ANC took at this time.
00:14:12:07 – 00:14:41:06
Frans Cronje
So thatâs another insight. And I donât know if we cut the show at this point, people might say, âTremendous, the countryâs moving forward.â But I think almost the most important question we asked was about the Progressive Caucus. I thought this was the most important insight we developed. Youâll remember when MK and the EFF were banished to the back benches of Parliament, they said theyâd never govern the country.
00:14:41:06 – 00:15:11:23
Frans Cronje
They formed what they called the Progressive Caucus. So, we asked voters: after the GNU was formed, with radical left parties sidelined, how do they feel about this caucus? If the MK and EFF formed what they call the Progressive Caucus, with policies of radical economic transformation, expropriation, nationalization, etc., which of the following best describes your position on it?
00:15:12:01 – 00:15:41:17
Frans Cronje
The first option is, âThe Progressive Caucus has my full support. Itâs necessary for transformation, and the ANC has sold out 100 days into the GNU.â 28% of voters said that was their view. The second option is, âI absolutely oppose the Progressive Caucus. Its policies are dangerous, led by corrupt individuals, and we should avoid it at all costs.â
00:15:46:19 – 00:16:14:15
Frans Cronje
46% of voters said thatâs how they felt. So thatâs a big splitâa 16% gap above the pro side. Thatâs very strong. But in the middle, there was a quarter of votersâexactly 25.2%âwho said, âIâm open to supporting the Progressive Caucus and what it stands for. Iâll have a look and see what happens.â
00:16:14:17 – 00:16:36:11
Frans Cronje
So, 100 days in, the anchor tenantsâthe ANC and the DAâare growing. Most of the members of the GNU, the public thinks, are doing great. Even black voters think the DA is doing well, and white voters, who never questioned the ANC, give it a fair chunk of support for the second time.
00:16:36:13 – 00:17:09:05
Frans Cronje
However, I suspect that when we do this again, maybe a year from nowâletâs say a year from nowâif this new government has not been able to bring about material improvements in the lives of people, then thereâs the prospect that the 25% in the middle, who said, âI like this GNU,â will change. Because we know theyâve also told us, âIâve got my eye on the Progressive Caucus.â
00:17:09:08 – 00:17:41:01
Frans Cronje
If that 25% swings and turns negative on the GNU, you flip the entire deal around, making possible an ANC, EFF, and MK alliance. If I were the leaders of MK and the EFFâwho, despite bad election results, are still hopefulâIâd tell them, âDonât despair.â Give it a few months. If this GNU does not perform, particularly in areas like job creation and material improvement, you still have a serious shot at flipping this deal around.
00:17:41:03 – 00:18:11:23
Frans Cronje
That might be a good segue into Gauteng, where the nucleus of the resistance to the GNU, if you want to call it that, appears to be headquartered.
00:18:12:01 – 00:18:40:19
Alec Hogg
Brilliant. But before we go there, this is a very strong message to businesses in South Africaâthe corporates sitting on piles of cash on their balance sheets. If they donât do something to support this move, thereâs a serious danger. And I think thatâs a point any sensible executive who gets this information should certainly be contemplating. But letâs go into Gauteng and see how the resistance is doing.
00:18:46:04 – 00:19:14:19
Frans Cronje
Yeah, I donât quite understand Gauteng. I donât know whoâs on whose side or whoâs attempting to do what. And when we tell you something but donât fully qualify it, itâs because we donât completely understand it either. What we do probably understand sufficiently is that thereâs a view within certain corners of the ANC that this GNU deal was a mistake.
00:19:14:21 – 00:19:57:12
Frans Cronje
The people who feel threatened by itâperhaps people who feel threatened by the idea that South Africa might one day be well-governed or that they might be prosecutedâare likely the ones staging an alternative to the GNU. One view held by the camp attempting to challenge this is that public opinion in South Africa today has become moderate, centered, sensible, and pragmatic. Thereâs very little demand for radical populism or populist ideas.
00:19:57:12 – 00:20:29:23
Frans Cronje
If youâre a revolutionary ideologue, this has been a terrible failure on your part because people want to live together in relative harmony. The poor want to move to cities and get jobs. No one wants to nationalize Discoveryâs medical aid schemesâthey want to become members of Discovery Medical Aid schemes. If youâre a radical populist and you want any chance of one day taking over the country, you need to change that.
00:20:29:23 – 00:21:04:07
Frans Cronje
So, you need to drive a determined policy of radicalization. I think we saw an example of that in the incident at Pretoria Girls High. If you missed it, a few weeks ago, some politicians in Gauteng manufactured an incident of racism at Pretoria Girls High and relied on the mediaâunfortunately, itâs often too easy to doâto blow this incident out of proportion.
00:21:04:09 – 00:21:36:16
Frans Cronje
A very interesting thing happened in parallel. Thabo Mbeki actually went to investigate, and in the last couple of days, completely cleared the school of any wrongdoing by the children or teachers involved. So, I think weâll see a hard push for radicalizationâthatâs step one around Gauteng. I think the second thing weâll see is an attempt to normalize the idea of the EFF in government.
00:21:36:18 – 00:22:15:23
Frans Cronje
The ANC represents a particular philosophical strain of Southern Africaâs liberation movements that doesnât buy into the Frantz Fanon idea of leading society to the brink of destruction, jumping off the cliff, and in the disaster that follows, building a Venezuelan-like Valhalla. The ANCâs strain of liberation movements is much more cautious and holds the view that if you run into resistance or trouble, you must pull back. The purpose of the revolution is to harness the private sector to the revolutionary agenda of the state, not to seize the means of production and run them through the state.
00:22:16:01 – 00:22:39:16
Frans Cronje
Youâll never see the ANC in South Africa actually trying to take over a mine, employ the workers through the state, sink a shaft, and sell commodities. Instead, they try to intimidate a mining executive into handing over a chunk of their business.
00:22:39:18 – 00:23:07:02
Frans Cronje
Thereâs a great sense within the ANC that if they had done the FDL three months ago, the market response and capital marketsâ reaction would have been so negative, and the socio-economic consequences so devastating, that the new administration would have come under immediate political pressure domestically. The collapse of the rand and runaway inflation would have followed.
00:23:07:04 – 00:23:44:03
Frans Cronje
So, youâll see an effort at radicalization in Gauteng. Then, what youâre going to see is a push to normalize the idea of the EFF in government. The ANC might say, “Be moderate in your new roles in Johannesburg or Pretoria. We need to get the marketâs response on board and also get business to start saying, âYou know, these guys arenât so bad.â Once weâre firmly back in power, which might be in a few years, then we can turn on the revolutionary afterburners.”
00:23:44:05 – 00:24:08:14
Frans Cronje
Thatâs the strategy as far as I can make out around Gauteng. Itâs succeeded in Johannesburg and Pretoria, which is important because it means that whatever balance of influence exists in the ANC in favor of the GNU, itâs not strong enough under pressure to stand up for the GNU.
00:24:08:16 – 00:24:30:11
Frans Cronje
This is a little crack. So, think of it as a small crack in the GNU, which we said before would show. What we must watch now is whether this crack gets longer, deeper, and continues through to December 2027. Thatâs when the ANC picks a new leader.
00:24:30:12 – 00:24:51:21
Frans Cronje
If this crack leads to that leader and brings him to power, thereâs a prospect that the change flips immediately after the ANCâs electoral college. Thatâs a country risk. Now, Iâm not saying it will happen. I donât know.
00:24:51:23 – 00:25:18:12
Frans Cronje
But radicalization, plus normalization of the EFF in government, plus this little crack, can take advantage of that 25% of voters who say, âWe like the GNU, but weâd consider the Progressive Caucus.â That will be the strategy to flip this thing around, if indeed it is.
00:25:18:12 – 00:25:25:05
Alec Hogg
Frans Cronje is the chairman of the Social Research Foundation. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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