In a lively discussion on the Investec Champions Cup, Alec Hogg and Rory Steyn analyze the crucial weekend ahead for South African teams. The Sharks have a solid chance of advancing, while the Stormers face a tough away game against Racing 92. The Bulls, however, are largely out of contention.
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Highlights from the interview
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In a detailed conversation on the Investec Champions Cup, Alec Hogg and Rory Steyn break down the pivotal weekend for South African rugby teams. With the competition heading into its fourth round, the focus is on the Sharks, Stormers, and Bulls, each facing different challenges.
The Sharks are in a strong position to qualify for the round of 16, sitting in a tight pool with Bordeaux, Toulouse, Leicester, and others. Despite a tough loss to Toulouse, the Sharks need only a point from their final match against Bordeaux to progress. Steyn emphasises the importance of fielding a full-strength squad, as a win could secure their spot, but points difference is crucial if other results go against them.
The Stormers, conversely, face a more uncertain fate. They need a win against Racing 92 in France to ensure their place in the knockout stages, though they must also hope for a Harlequins loss to Glasgow. Steyn believes the Stormers, with their rising confidence and key players like Marnie, are capable of securing the result, but the odds are stacked against them.
Meanwhile, the Bulls, who are effectively out of contention, will likely focus on the URC after disappointing performances in the Champions Cup. Steyn predicts a win against Stade Français but notes that their primary aim should be to regroup and target future successes.
As the competition intensifies, the outcome of these matches will determine whether South African teams progress or bow out of Europe’s premier club competition.
Edited transcript of the interview
Alec Hogg (00:08.428)
Well, it’s a huge weekend of rugby for the South African provinces involved in the Investec Challenge Cup. Rory Steyn will help us navigate through all the permutations, what to look for, and whether we’re likely to see further South African representation as the Champions Cup heads into the round of 16.
Alec Hogg (00:33.216)
Yeah, it’s big stuff, Rory. We’ve already had three rounds, and now we’re entering the fourth round. Before we dive into the permutations, let’s first clarify how the Investec Challenge Cup works. There are 24 teams in total, divided into four pools. Each pool has six teams, and the top four teams from each pool will make it into the round of 16. So, that’s the situation. As we are now in January, teams qualifying in this round will only play again in April, which means a few months of waiting before the next round.
Rory Steyn (01:14.848)
Correct.
Alec Hogg (01:31.914)
I suppose this break also accommodates the Six Nations and other tournaments that happen during this time.
Rory Steyn (01:42.27)
Yes, that’s right. Good morning to everyone watching and listening. Alec, you’re absolutely correct. This is the big debate we’re having even within the business sports group at the moment—what does a global rugby season look like? The Six Nations is starting soon—around January 30th or 31st, and typically runs through February and into March. Meanwhile, the Top 14 in France, the Gallagher Premiership in England, and our very own URC will continue, before breaking for the quarter-finals in April. The final of the European domestic Championship is in June, and after that, there’s no more club rugby, leading into the autumn internationals.
Alec Hogg (03:34.59)
Alright, so to recap, France has its professional league, the Top 14; England has the Gallagher Premiership, and South African provinces play in the URC against teams from Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and Italy. These teams then qualify for the Investec Champions Cup, which used to be the Heineken Cup. The big question now is: how do the South African teams qualify this weekend?
Rory Steyn (04:01.67)
And Italy.
Alec Hogg (04:04.224)
Exactly, Italy too. So, to continue, if the South African teams want to progress in the Investec Champions Cup, they need to perform this weekend. Let’s look at the pools. In Pool 1, Bordeaux is at the top with 15 points, followed by Toulouse with 14 points.
Rory Steyn (04:25.183)
Correct.
Alec Hogg (04:32.908)
They seem set for qualification. Leicester, with Pollard’s team, is next at 11 points, and the Sharks are on five points. As things stand, the Sharks will qualify, but Ulster is playing Exeter, and if one of them wins with a bonus point, they could reach five points as well, putting pressure on the Sharks.
Rory Steyn (05:01.418)
Yes, Pollard’s Leicester is a factor here.
Alec Hogg (05:09.999)
The Sharks need to make sure they don’t lose too badly, as their points difference is much lower than Ulster’s or Exeter’s.
Rory Steyn (05:19.674)
Exactly. The Sharks must take a full-strength team to France and aim for at least one point—ideally a draw. They should avoid any major defeat. If they field their best team, they can still win in Bordeaux.
Alec Hogg (05:46.444)
So, Bordeaux is at the top, but with qualification assured, they might field a weakened team. That’s unusual for a French side, but it could happen.
Rory Steyn (06:10.042)
Yes, Bordeaux is second in the Top 14. They have 14 points, but Toulouse has 13, so Bordeaux could rest players ahead of their Top 14 run-in. The Sharks should take advantage, but they must field their strongest squad.
Alec Hogg (08:55.756)
To lose. But does it matter for the Sharks? Toulouse is playing Leicester, so the Sharks can’t rise to third place.
Rory Steyn (09:24.506)
Yes, but they must avoid dropping to fifth.
Alec Hogg (09:39.808)
So if the Sharks field a full-strength team, will it hurt them for next week?
Rory Steyn (09:52.311)
It’s a tough call. I believe the Sharks need to prioritize the Champions Cup, as it’s the best club rugby in the world.
Alec Hogg (10:22.454)
We’ll see if Toulouse can overcome Leicester at home.
Rory Steyn (10:45.509)
Toulouse is likely to win. Leicester’s form is improving, but Toulouse has a proud home record.
Alec Hogg (11:02.124)
Moving to Pool 2, Leinster is clearly in control, with Bath also still in the mix.
Rory Steyn (11:37.775)
Bath had a good win last weekend, but beating Leinster at home will be tough.
Alec Hogg (13:04.768)
Bath’s qualification isn’t certain yet. If Clermont or Bristol win, they could overtake Bath.
Rory Steyn (13:24.665)
Clermont will likely beat Bristol.
Alec Hogg (13:54.816)
Now, let’s look at the Bulls. They’re almost out of contention, but there’s still the EPCR Cup to aim for. Can the Bulls secure the fifth spot?
Rory Steyn (14:04.48)
I don’t think Stade Francais will beat the Bulls at Loftus. The Bulls will focus on improving after their URC loss.
Alec Hogg (15:02.06)
The Bulls must beat Stade Francais, but they’re on the verge of elimination from the Champions Cup.
Rory Steyn (16:10.506)
Munster and Northampton are close on the log, and Saracens play Castres for the top spot.
Alec Hogg (16:41.804)
Saracens are favorites against Castres.
Rory Steyn (17:00.92)
Saracens will win by 12-15 points, I think.
Alec Hogg (17:23.572)
The top spots will be decided by Northampton, Munster, Saracens, and possibly Stade Francais or Castres.
Rory Steyn (17:39.253)
I don’t see Stade Francais beating the Bulls at Loftus.
Alec Hogg (17:52.041)
Toulon has been impressive, and they lead the pool. Glasgow Warriors have a chance to retain second place by beating Harlequins.
Rory Steyn (18:04.824)
Toulon are a strong side, and I expect them to top the group. Glasgow can beat Harlequins, though.
Alec Hogg (19:39.84)
Toulon should win, especially with Sale Sharks’ confidence low after a heavy defeat to the Stormers.
Rory Steyn (20:00.981)
Toulon will want to keep a strong team, so I expect them to win against Sale.
Alec Hogg (20:49.132)
If Glasgow Warriors beat Harlequins, the Stormers have a chance to advance, but they must beat Racing in France.
Rory Steyn (21:10.361)
It’s a tough game, but Racing 92 is in disarray, and the Stormers are on a high. I think the Stormers can win.
Alec Hogg (21:52.108)
A big game for the Stormers in Paris. If they win, they’ll go through to the round of 16.
Rory Steyn (22:11.253)
They’ve got it all to do, but their confidence is up, and they’ve got the talent.
Alec Hogg (24:25.748)
To summarize, it looks like the Sharks will qualify, the Stormers have a chance if they win in France, and the Bulls are likely out.
Rory Steyn (24:27.456)
Yes, the Bulls should target the URC final and focus on next season’s Champions Cup.
Alec Hogg (24:53.342)
Rory Steyn, co-founder of NSA Global, joining us to give insights into the Investec Champions Cup. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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