President Cyril Ramaphosa “just keeps upping the ante” in his dealings with US President Donald Trump, but he “has no advantage”. So says US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt. “I think that he wants sanctions…I think he wants to be punished so he can play the role of martyr…I don’t know who he thinks is going to come rescue South Africa….” Wyatt says that China, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, members of BRICS, have not stepped forward to offer anything to fill the gap left by the United States, nor has the European Union.. As for the alleged influence of Elon Musk on foreign policy towards South Africa, he says: “It’s not Elon Musk; this predates it. It’s been building for a long time…” Wyatt also gives feedback on his meetings with the Afrikaner delegation currently in the States; gives his take on possible sanctions, the future of AGOA – and the permanent loss of PEPFAR. He further explains what is behind Trump’s Russia strategy.
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Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chris Steyn (00:02.695)
This week’s Afrikaner trek to Washington and the White House is causing a great deal of controversy. They have been accused of peddling lies, sowing divisions, treason even. We speak to US intelligence analyst, who has met with members of that delegation. Good morning, Colonel.
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:23.534)
Howdy Chris, how are you today?
Chris Steyn (00:25.339)
I’m fine, thank you. Let’s go to the breaking news before we discuss the delegation.
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:32.014)
Indeed, in the past hour, letters apparently were delivered to the third party providers of PEPFAR programmes in South Africa, indicating that PEPFAR is now ceased forever in South Africa as a consequence of South Africa’s actions not aligning with US national security interests. This is devastating news to those who provide HIV care in South Africa, given that the African National Congress has had 22 years to take full responsibility for treating people and preparing for HIV and they failed to do it and left that burden on the US taxpayer. The programme was meant to be an emergency programme 22 years ago for five years. We’ve continued it for 22 years and it’ll continue elsewhere apparently, but South Africa’s foreign policy decisions are harming US national security interests in the view of the current administration. And those who’ll pay for the price will be South Africans with HIV.
Chris Steyn (01:20.083)
Okay, let’s go to the delegation. You met with them. What is their ultimate aim?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (01:24.962)
Well, from what they’ve said to me, their goal here is to inform US policymakers as they’ve been doing for number of years, building relationships with people on this side of the Atlantic. No different than other groups that lobby. We have groups from South Africa and the business community, groups from Germany, from the UK, who come to the United States, from Israel, from around the world to lobby our congressmen and our legislators to ensure that their interests, whether it’s selling goods or it’s affecting policy in their country, are addressed. And that’s what they said they were here for.
They were concerned about what’s happening in South Africa. And so they came over very concerned about the relationship between the U.S.
I think it’s interesting to note that the government of South Africa who didn’t follow traditional diplomatic channels to approach Washington for delegation apparently is unable to get a meeting with this administration. But those who have been talking to Democrats and Republicans for years and not insulting the United States were able to get an appointment actually get to the White House.
Chris Steyn (02:18.053)
South Africa is already facing retributive steps. What more do they want?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (02:23.074)
Well, I would disagree with that, Chris. There is no retribution here. This point here with this is the thing that’s being missed. The government is not reading the room at all. And Cyril Ramaphosa is not helping. An op-ed that appeared in Foreign Policy Magazine, which attacked Israel and obliquely attacked the United States and just, you know, his State of the Nation address saying, will not be bullied. The president’s Executive Order took no punitive action against South Africa. This is a lie in South African media. There are no sanctions. There were no steps taken.
The actions of the Executive Order that were concrete were that United States would cease foreign assistance to South Africa because its actions are contrary to our national security interest. South Africa was warned about this over a year ago when Congress had a bipartisan bill in the legislature to review the relationship with South Africa and consider suspending diplomatic ties. That was February 6th of 2024 under the Biden administration, not under Trump. Trump had nothing to do with it. This is continuation and South Africa’s government continues to take steps that are contrary to our national security interests in the view of Washington. And so that’s what’s going on here. But there were no punitive steps. All the South African community keeps saying sanctions and Trump is trying to punish and interfere.
The two actions he took ended foreign aid. Well, the United States was $2 trillion in deficit spending last year. We don’t have any money. We can’t continue at this pace with almost $40 trillion of federal debt and all the other debt this country has. We have to get our house in order.
And South Africa is not cooperating with our national interests. And so why should we be giving money to people who run contrary to our interests and harm our national interests, including nuclear cooperation with Iran? There’s no way the United States is going to tolerate that. I mean, you just can’t accept that. They’re not going to tolerate that.
And the second step was the refugee programme. That’s an internal decision for the United States. 7.6 million people in Africa currently registered refugees in UNHCR camps that want to come to the United States and other countries, and they’re in line. Well, the president has made a prioritised programme for those in South Africa to want to come.
These are internal decisions. And yes, I realised that both of them affect things in South Africa. But that’s what happens when South Africa continues to disrespect the United States and hold it at a distance. They’re the ones that aren’t being diplomatic, not Washington.
Chris Steyn (04:25.459)
What next can be expected? How close are African National Congress leaders to being sanctioned personally?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (04:35.182)
I think it’s a very good question. It’s one I’ve addressed for a while. Look, I got to tell you, Chris, honestly, I’m heartbroken right now. This doesn’t have to be like this. It doesn’t have to be like this. The United States and South Africa established a bilateral commission in the aftermath of the end of Apartheid where we worked together to try to help each other. And that worked well for number of years.
And here we find ourselves now on the precipice of a very sour relationship that’s wholly unnecessary. The United States did not ask to be ignored for five months about the lady R when we politely, diplomatically, quietly, and in private, asked for an answer and were ignored and rebuffed by the South African government.
The United States did not do many of the things that South Africa has done contrary to our interest. So what’s next? Well, my concern is that there’s going to wind up to some serious economic repercussions here. Look, the loss of foreign aid is terrible, but it’s half a billion dollars. It’s big news for South Africa and affects a of people. It doesn’t affect America that much. It’s not going to save us that much money.
The sanctioning of political leaders seems to me something very much on the table.
You know, people are talking about AfriForum and Solidarity coming to the States. One of their biggest arguments apparently with the administration and officials in Congress is please don’t stop AGOA. It affects all South Africans. Last night I interviewed members of Solidarity and the AfriForum movements when I went down to Maryland and met with them. And their biggest argument was that – we talked about this – you know, this isn’t about Afrikaners, AGOA and the trade. It’s about South Africans. AGOA trade affects all South Africans.
So will the leaders of South Africa’s ANC be sanctioned? I’ll tell you what, Ramaphosa just keeps up in the ante. I don’t know what he thinks he’s accomplishing here. China, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, members of BRICS, none have stepped forward to offer anything to the gap in United States. The European Union, which is making a lot of noise and interjecting their selves into this relationship, and now they’re putting themselves in a bad spot. They’ve offered nothing.
I don’t see anyone in last 22 years offering $400 million a year to fight HIV in South Africa except the American taxpayer. You know, Trump is not messing around. You know, like him, love him, hate him. It doesn’t matter. The guy’s not messing around. And ask Columbia, ask Mexico, ask Canada, ask Denmark. You know, the guy is making waves and he’s, you know, it’s funny because the media keeps saying, he’s so coercive. That’s coercive diplomacy. Have you ever worked in diplomacy?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (06:52.524)
Diplomacy is coercive, just like business negotiations. It’s coercive. That’s what it’s all about, is having advantage over your negotiating partner. And that’s what Trump is doing right now. Ramaphosa has no advantage here. I don’t know who he thinks is going to come rescue South Africa. I think that he wants sanctions. I think he wants to be punished so he can play the role of martyr.
You know, I mean, all this aside, the fact that he ran around screaming vaccine Apartheid when we gave South Africa $711 million to manufacture vaccine is that insult is being ignored by people. This list of transgressions runs back a number of years.
And writing op-eds in foreign policy attacking Israel and the United States obliquely is not going to help the situation. It’s getting ugly here. I think that AGOA may very soon come off the table. South Africa technically is not even eligible for it. They’ve broken the rules that they agreed to abide by enacting expropriation without compensation…sacrosanct private property rights… must respect them. And paying zero compensation to someone regardless of historical disadvantages or grievances or past mistakes. That’s not germane.
And South Africa is not eligible. So that’s easy to do. AGOA will go. 230,000 jobs in Africa directly tied to AGOA. And if you think South Africa can afford to lose 230,000 jobs with negative or flat growth. 3.4% of South Africa’s economy is directly tied to U.S. trade. This is a bad situation.
And my suggestion to the ANC is to stop talking. and politely sit back and then work out your differences with Washington. Just stop publicly insulting American, you’ll probably go a long way.
Chris Steyn (08:24.913)
What are the chances of the ANC backing down though, Colonel?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (08:30.136)
Zero. I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think that Cyril Ramaphosa wants the United States to place some kind of sanctions. mean, the government’s already misleading people claiming there are sanctions. There are no sanctions in South Africa. Everybody can travel freely. Look, the guys from AfriForum just came here. South Africans come here every day. People come back and forth. You can trade. You can do business. Look, I mean, people are not reading the room. And increasingly begin to think that it’s intentional on the part of Cyril Ramaphosa and the government of South Africa.
He said…just saw him a few minutes ago speaking to the press and he said that, you know, it’s unfortunate AfriForum and Solidarity went to America, we must solve our problems domestically. I’m sorry. The 600,000 public complaints against expropriation without compensation, 90 plus percent of them from all races saying that we don’t want this completely ignored. He signed the law anyway. How are you solving problems domestically? Sorry, I’m just asking a domestic question for the president since he’s upset with people coming abroad.
No, I think that AGOA is on the chopping block. It’s already in question, Chris.
We should mention this aside from South Africa. The African Growth Opportunity Act is a public law in the US to give African countries benefits, and it must be renewed every five years. This year it’s due for renewal, and it was already on shaky ground because the US is not happy that we give duty-free access to 38 countries in Africa, and all we get is abuse in the press and people lying about America’s foreign policy. What’s the point of helping people when their governments don’t follow good governance? That was the purpose of it, to encourage governments to have good governance, and then they would have access to our market duty free. So AGOA was already on the chopping block. That’s probably going to be easy for South Africa to lose.
Sanctions. Very real possibility. I would hope if they do it, that it’s not directed against the people of South Africa, like the ANC did, the ANC demanded. The Inkatha Freedom Party begged and said, we shouldn’t have sanctions because it’ll hurt the people of South Africa…need investment here. But the ANC went the other direction and convinced Americans, interfered in the politics here, came over here and lobbied for America to have sanctions on South Africa. And it happened and people suffered immensely. I hope that’s not what happens. If they’re going to take action, I would hope it would be against the people that the administration thinks are the ones that are causing the discord in the relationship, which would be targeted travel restrictions and financial transaction transactions against certain leaders. Kind of like what happens in Zimbabwe.
Chris Steyn (10:41.971)
Now just back to the delegation, the Afrikaners, do you know whether they are seeking support for a Volkstaat?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (10:50.892)
Yeah, I saw that News 24. I don’t read that that way. And I spoke to them last night and that’s not what they indicated to me. I didn’t bother putting it on the air because that’s just inflammatory the whole conversation.
What they asked for, which I thought was interesting, Chris, and this is newsworthy. I’ve talked about this already. I read their Washington Memorandum and that was the night before and then I actually spoke to them last night. What I thought was interesting is that in President Trump’s executive order, he mentions humanitarian relief. Here’s the sentence in his Executive Order under Section 4. He wants the Secretary of State and Secretary of Homeland Security to take appropriate steps consistent with law to prioritise humanitarian relief, including admission and resettlement through the United States Refugee Admissions Program. So I read humanitarian relief there to be, you know, helping people travel to get their things sorted out if they want to come to America as a refugee under that programme. So that’s how I understood that was my inference. Maybe I was incorrect. They saw that as an opportunity to say, hey, wait a second, you know, our communities are ignored over here and we’re not getting governance and service delivery in places and we’re trying to build resilient communities where people can survive crime and the streets work and the lights work and stuff like that. Maybe it’s a chance for us to ask the United States if they can provide foreign assistance to help groups in South Africa. That’s their approach there. So that’s what they’re talking about here, building resilient communities inside South Africa. Now, if that’s their intent, they didn’t state that and I didn’t infer that, but we could be wrong. I could be wrong. I’ll accept that.
But that’s not what I get from it. That’s inflammatory publication, inflammatory reporting, I believe by publication. I noticed that of the major publications, South Africa only News24 went with that clickbait headline. I didn’t see that in the Independent Online, which likes clickbait headlines. Didn’t see it in the Times Live. I only saw it in News24. The other two I thought honestly were very balanced in their reporting of the visit so far. So I don’t see that. I asked that question and that’s not the answer I got.
Chris Steyn (12:45.011)
Okay, what about President Donald Trump’s swing towards Russia?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (12:51.662)
Well, that’s a good question. And I think some people will be surprised by my take. I don’t see any swing towards Russia. People keep saying this. What I see is a president who is trying to use what power he has to influence and force a peace discussion. Who has formed a peace discussion in three years of conflict? Joe Biden? Not one effort to do it. Zelensky? Not one effort to do it. Putin? Not one effort to do it. The European Union? Not one effort to do it. NATO? Not a single effort to do it. Yes, I know Ramaphosa went through Poland, went to Kiev and supposedly had a peace mission. So maybe he tried. I’ll give him credit for that, but no one else has tried at all. And it was an African Union thing. No one. Trump is trying to force people to table. And sometimes it takes a blunt instrument. And Zelensky has been intransigent. He’s refused to discuss peace. Now he wants to talk peace. Now he wants to come to Washington. In fact, he’ll be here, I think tomorrow, apparently coming to Washington. So I don’t see a swing towards Russia. People think that Trump loves Russia. Maybe he does. I’m not seeing it play out. What I’m seeing is realpolitik.
What we’ve been living in for the past 30 years is constructivism where those international relations think that you can have international organisations. We can all get around a coffee table and solve our problems. Well, that’s all sounds fine and dandy until you’re the Filipinos or the Vietnamese in the South China seas and Chinese ships are ramming your coast guard vessels and nearly knocking your aircraft out of the air by buzzing by them at 10 feet away, causing very dangerous situations or you’re off the coast of Sydney and Chinese warships are firing live ammunition at your shore in an attempt to intimidate you, which happened this week, Chris.
So constructivism doesn’t work in the international relations realm. This is real politic, this is realism, and that’s what’s going on here. Now, in the interest of full disclosure, as a political scientist, I am a realist. I am in that vein, and so I’m seeing what’s playing out here, what’s traditionally been the role of international politics. I think Thucydides said it quite well in the Malian Dialogue, 1,000 plus years ago. He said, you know, the strong will do what they want and the weak will suffer what they must. And that’s a horrible reality. But, you know, if you don’t have any chips in your stack, what are you going to play the game with?
And that’s what’s going on here. So I think that it’s not a question of him turning to Russia. I think that he is trying to force these players to the table. In the end, Russia is never going to give up Crimea. So if anyone argues Trump gave him Crimea, that’s just stupid. Obama did that. If anybody, Obama said, no, you can’t do it. And just looked the other way. So Crimea is gone. Ukraine will never get back because they don’t have the force to get it back. The question is what happens to Eastern Donbas and how much territory does Russia retain? That’s the situation Ukraine finds itself in here.
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (15:15.5)
And the horrible part from my perspective, Chris, is that the Europeans are going to Ukraine and Justin Trudeau just went there and they’re talking about giving more weapons to fuel a conflict. Look, I’m not a fan of Russia. I don’t like Putin at all. He’s an evil person. But Zelensky is not exactly a good player either here. And hundreds of thousands of people are dead on both sides. Entire regions are devastated. It’ll take a century for some these places to recover. I mean, this is devastation is bad or worse. Some of the Nazis went through the Ukraine because they swept through the Ukraine and there wasn’t that much physical damage. They went through there quickly.
So this is really, really, really tragic. And I don’t think that Trump is turning towards Putin. He’s trying to end the conflict. He’s having, in his first month, he’s already had a peace discussion with one of the major players. In three years, no one else other than this African Union delegation…has done that. So, I mean, look, let’s see what plays out.
One thing it does disturb me, Chris, I’ll say as an American, I find it distasteful to comment, and this probably put me in bad stead with the Trump administration. I find a little distasteful that we’re talking about quid pro quo. Well, you give us strategic minerals and we’ll give you aid. I’m not a fan of that, but that’s a negotiating tool. But it comes from a businessman’s mind and hopefully it doesn’t come to that. I don’t want strategic rare earth minerals from Ukraine to give them money to keep fighting the war. I’d rather the war end and young men and women no longer suffer.
Chris Steyn (16:34.163)
And another sign that our Presiden Cyril Ramaphosa, and yours, Donald Trump, never seem to be on the same page is President Ramaphosa then inviting Zelensky to South Africa.
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (16:45.934)
Well, perhaps, but it may be an effort to poke Trump in the eye, but I don’t have a problem with that. If Ramaphosa is going to have a serious, constructive discussion to get Zelensky to say, hey, you better get to the table and get this thing sorted out, I have no issue with that. And I don’t think Washington actually would have an issue with that one. That one is not running contrary to our national interests because US national interests is to end the conflict. And if Cyril Ramaphosa is taking concrete steps, well, I saw recently that the head of the World Economic Forum, the Norwegian guy said that South Africa plays a big role in its history and peacekeeping and this, that and the other. And I had to chuckle. mean, I remember the Central African Republic. I remember the South African government’s interloping actions in Lesotho and Operation Bolleas and in Comoros and Mozambique and the DRC and Cote d’Ivoire. And I don’t necessarily agree that they, that South Africa has the influence that he seems to think. But if South Africa has the influence to get one or both of these players to the table and the conflict, that’s not going to upset Washington. I’m pretty sure that Trump would probably have no problem with that.
Chris Steyn (17:44.819)
Colonel, lastly, which individuals in the African National Congress do you think deserve personal sanctions?
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (17:51.692)
That’s an unfair question, Chris. That’s an unfair question. As a journalist, I would not answer that question. However, as an independent analyst, I would answer that question. I think that, you know, I don’t want to on my next visit, find myself at Luthuli House answering questions in front of the African National Congress about why I’m calling people out. So I think I will demur on that one.
I think if anyone says someone should deserve attention, it’s pretty easy to spot it.There are people running around to Deutsche Welle and lying about America, claiming that the Executive Order is racist. Maybe someone like that might be a perfect candidate for it. There’s a few others.
So look, it’s it’s it’s just not a good situation. And it’s really I mean, I hate to sound like a 15-year old, but it sucks. This is not good. This is not good for South Africans. And Chris, I think you know me. I’m not happy about this for South Africa. And this is not good.
Look for America, it’s a distraction. Now the Iran issue is not a distraction. People wanna keep focusing on Elon Musk and this relationship. Musk is behind this, Elon Musk is not behind this. People need to wake up and stop reading the tea leaves wrong. It’s not Elon Musk, this predates it. It’s been building for a long time and Biden wouldn’t take action just because he’s Biden. Trump is taking action. I don’t know what to say, Chris. It’s really heartbreaking. And I hope that adults step into the room.
But if you’re watching the Breitbart journalists everyone seems to claim has the inside track on being the nominee for the ambassador, Joel Pollack. Joel Pollack’s been pretty clear in his comments. I’ve been pretty clear, but I don’t work for Breitbart. So I don’t have quite the reach that Joel Pollack has that this whole thing could be resolved pretty quickly if people just start behaving like adults and calm down.
Chris Steyn (19:33.245)
Thank you. That was US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt speaking to BizNews. And I’m Chris Steyn. Thank you, Chris.
Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (19:43.554)
My pleasure, Chris, best of luck and let’s keep an eye for the breaking stories on this one.
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