Ramaphosa must be “politically ruthless” to survive as NEC meeting begins

ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has arrived at the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Nasrec where his political future will be decided. But as quickly as he arrived he recused himself, because he’s the topic of conversation. It’s been a seesaw affair over the past few days. Media reports cited those in his inner circle as having confirmed the ink was almost dry on Ramaphosa’s resignation speech after the report’s release on Wednesday evening when his allies managed to convince him he’d have sufficient backing in the NEC to survive. As the Bloomberg piece below points outs, the president appears to have found his boxing gloves and is intent on taking the independent panel’s “clearly flawed” findings on judicial review in the Constitutional Court. ANC national spokesperson Pule Mabe told reporters gathered outside the NEC meeting: “We had our National Working Committee [NWC] meeting yesterday [Sunday]. The president attended that NWC, presented his own political overview and requested to be recused. The NWC applied its own wisdom and agreed he should be recused. When reports are being discussed which deal with an individual cadre, we allow them to be recused from such so that discussions can happen openly and fairly. We have done it before with others. There was no separate condition created for the president of the ANC.”

The NEC – the highest decision-making body of the ANC between conferences – will deliberate and seek to find some consensus (if that’s even possible) on the party’s approach to Tuesday’s debate on the panel findings in the National Assembly. For an impeachment process with far greater inquisitorial powers to be established by the Speaker, it would require 50% plus one of MPs to vote in the affirmative on Tuesday. In numbers terms, that means 201 of the 400 MPs would need to support the motion to constitute a Section 194 impeachment enquiry. As always, it’s going to be a numbers game, and it’s one in which the ANC holds all the sway. No matter how much kicking, screaming, grandstanding or appeals for anyone to do the right thing, the ANC has 230 seats in Parliament and can simply quash this whole impeachment thing before it even begins. It’s expected that the NEC will make its preferred decision known. That decision is then communicated to the chief whip of the ANC in Parliament, who then instructs its deployed cadres to vote in a particular manner. If every single opposition party voted in favour of starting an impeachment enquiry, that equals 170 votes. Opposition parties are not united on this issue though, making the leap to a simple majority all the more difficult. There would have to be some serious lobbying by opposition parties to get the necessary 30 plus votes from among ANC MPs for the motion to get off the ground. It’s unlikely. But this is politics and things change quickly. Ramaphosa has his rivals who smell blood in the water as the ANC elective conference looms. But while wounded, Ramaphosa appears to have found his appetite for a fight – which is very unlike him. – Michael Appel


South African President Ramaphosa Readies Scandal Defense Before Key ANC Meeting

By Paul Vecchiatto

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s lawyers will challenge an advisory panel’s report that said there may be grounds for his impeachment, as the governing party’s top leaders hold a crucial meeting on how to respond to the damning findings.

The president’s legal team will file papers with the Constitutional Court on Monday, said Peter Harris, a partner at law firm Harris Nupen Molebatsi, which is acting for Ramaphosa. The documents will then be distributed by the presidency, he said by phone.

Ramaphosa’s spokesman, Vincent Magwenya, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment sent by text message.

Ramaphosa considered quitting last week after the panel said he may have committed serious misconduct and constitutional violations because of the way he handled the theft of at least $580,000 stashed in a sofa at his game farm in 2020. That option was taken off the table at the weekend when the presidency said Ramaphosa will ask the courts to review the “clearly flawed” findings and will seek a second term as leader of the governing African National Congress at its five-yearly elective conference next week.

The party’s National Executive Committee is due to meet at 10 a.m. on Monday to decide on whether or not to back Ramaphosa. Lawmakers are scheduled to hold a debate in parliament on Tuesday on whether to adopt the panel’s report, which would trigger impeachment proceedings, or reject it.

‘Flawed Nature’

A meeting of the ANC’s National Working Committee, which is responsible for the day-to-day running of the party, agreed on Sunday to advise the NEC to reject the panel’s findings,  Cape Town-based news website News24 reported, without saying where it got the information. ANC spokesman Pule Mabe didn’t respond to a request for comment sent by text message.

“Our expectation is that parliament will proceed with the debate on Tuesday and that the ANC caucus will reject the report due to its flawed nature,” Magwenya said by text message on Sunday.

Ramaphosa told reporters after making a brief appearance at the NWC meeting that his fate lay in the hands of the NEC.

“The president will attend the NEC tomorrow and the meeting will advise on whether he must be recused or not since he is the subject of discussion,” Magwenya said. 

The president has said the cash at his farm came from the sale of 20 buffalo to a Sudanese businessman, and his farm manager stored it in a couch in a spare bedroom at his private residence because he thought that would be the safest place to keep it. Ramaphosa denied doing anything wrong or interfering in the investigations — assertions that were rejected by the panel headed by former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo.

Delayed Proceedings

If the ANC does decide that the legislature should adopt the panel’s report, a committee of lawmakers would be constituted to reassess the case against the president. Its findings would then be presented to the National Assembly, which would vote on how to proceed. Impeaching the president would require the backing of two-thirds of lawmakers. 

That parliamentary process would however be derailed should Ramaphosa win his lawsuit to have the panel’s findings overturned. Pierre de Vos and Richard Calland, who are law professors at the University of Cape Town, have each written that the president has a chance of winning the case. 

There remains a possibility that the parliamentary proceedings could be delayed, according to Lawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution.

“By filing papers, it will give the speaker of the National Assembly the opening to say the matter is before the courts and postpone Tuesday’s debate,” Naidoo said “If he gets access to the Constitutional Court and a hearing, it will be highly unlikely that they will make a ruling before Dec. 16 when the ANC national conference starts.” 

Ramaphosa, 70, a lawyer, former union leader and one of the richest black South Africans, took office in 2018 and was the clear frontrunner to win a second term as ANC leader and president before the panel released its explosive findings.

“This is do or die time for Ramaphosa and he should do what people have being saying for a long time: that he must now be politically ruthless in order to survive,” Naidoo said. 

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–With assistance from S’thembile Cele and Renee Bonorchis.

© 2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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