Linda van Tilburg interviewed political analyst Dr Piet Croucamp about his take on the 55th ANC elective conference and reports on an interesting angle: the party is so divided and perceived as so untrustworthy by many South Africans that it may be lucky even to garner 50% of the votes in the 2024 national election. Given that realisation, ANC stalwarts realise that Ramaphosa will still be their best bet to try to prop up the ailing structure – but the threat from the alienated RET faction and Ace Magashule still remains. Read the fascinating opinions below to find out more. – Sandra Laurence
The elephant in the room at the 55th ANC elective conference – Dr Piet Croukamp
The divisions that have haunted the ruling ANC party loomed large as the organisation’s 55th national conference got underway at Nasrec in Johannesburg on 16 December. An opening delayed by seven hours, heckling delegates from Kwazulu-Natal and the grandstanding entrance by former President Jacob Zuma shortly after President Cyril Ramaphosa started his speech characterised the first day. This was after Zuma launched a private prosecution against President Ramaphosa the day before. The mayhem was quickly dealt with by ANC security, but Ramaphosa looked rattled during the first part of his speech. The President gave a thorough account of everything that was wrong with the country, with the energy crisis getting the most attention from delegates. Ramaphosa acknowledged that loadshedding was experienced every day and that it was constraining growth, job creation and poverty alleviation. Dr Piet Croukamp, a political analyst from North West University, told Biznews the elephant in the room was that while the ANC was fighting internal battles, there was a chance that support for the party may fall under 50% in the next election in 2024. Croukamp believes the ANC will cling to Ramaphosa because he is still more popular than his party.
Zuma and his supporters attempt to disrupt – Winnie Mandela did the same to Mbeki
I think part of it was staged because Jacob Zuma was around yesterday for much of the day and literally half an hour before we all went in for the speech by the president. Then he deliberately delayed his entrance about two minutes into the president’s speech in an effort to disrupt. Winnie Madikizela-Mandela tried exactly the same thing with Thabo Mbeki as you remember, and then he refused to greet her. It was a major ruckus in South African politics. So, he entered late deliberately and went and sat among the people from Kwazulu-Natal instead of on the stage with Thabo Mbeki and the other presidents. It was an effort to disrupt. Of course there is this general unhappiness in Kwazulu-Natal with the way they’ve been marginalised. I think they can fairly argue they’ve been marginalised for the last five years during the Ramaphosa presidency. There are no really dominant leaders from that province that were a part of the cabinet or provincial structures. I think the chickens are coming home to roost.
Nothing is likely to come from Zuma’s attempt to drag Ramaphosa into private prosecution
It’s nonsense. What he is trying to do is to hook his argument onto the Billy Downer and Karen Maughan case and then by implication to imply that the president is criminally liable. But there’s nothing. I’ve spoken to Richard Calland today and another lawyer, and they all say that there’s no criminal charges. It is opportunistic. The problem is now the president must actually go to court and explain why he’s not liable for the things they accuse him of. So that’s the thing; they can get him into court, but ultimately, no doubt it will be set aside and it is more of a publicity stunt. It’s funded by Louis Liebenberg who is a famous opportunistic Afrikaner investigated by the NPA for a Ponzi scheme. I know for a fact he employs one of Jacob Zuma’s daughters for R1million salary per year. It’s a sordid thing, but I don’t think it’s going to be any problem. The question is how the conference will deal with it? Something tells me that by now, Gwede Mantashe will probably have asked other lawyers what they think and will come to the conclusion it’s opportunistic.
On whether Zweli Mkhize could be nominated as deputy president from the floor?
I think the real question is, once the voting starts, to what extent will the delegates be swayed by the Phala Phala incident, because President Ramaphosa has got significantly more support, almost two-thirds more support from branches than Zweli Mkhize, who is the only other contender. It could be that Phala Phala has some influence. There might be other permutations. What they’ve done is; they moved the election of the deputy-president and the deputy secretary general almost a day apart from the election of the president. And you might say the deputy president is a very important position. Why would they move it 24 hours later? I might be wrong, but I think there are all sorts of talks. But it’s possible that if Mkhize loses the battle against Ramaphosa for the presidency that he will then be nominated from the floor as deputy president. Then you have some sort of a compromise between the two different factions: Mkhize as deputy president and Cyril Ramaphosa would take the presidency. It’s possible that it could play out like that, but a lot of things can happen. It all depends on the behaviour of the delegates and how they are swayed. We know that this time there is not that much money around and we know it’s very, very difficult to really organise for a particular disposition or a particular candidate now because Kgalema Motlanthe has really, I think, sanitised this whole process to a large degree.
On ANC fears that opposition parties will start getting their act together
I think the big elephant in the room – and the president alluded to that – is that there is the chance of them getting less than 50% in the election. There is the chance of opposition parties somehow managing to put together a coalition and I think the thing that disturbs them most is the informal agreement between the DA and the IFP in Kwazulu-Natal a day or two ago, which allowed the IFP to take a ward off the ANC. I think they are starting to fear that type of agreement. So the big thing for them is what’s going to happen in the election in 18 months time. All the results of the recent local elections indicate the ANC is doing worse and worse and worse. And there’s no indication that they will get the type of cohesion that he referred to so often in his speech, that they will get that type of cohesion to actually fight an election on the basis of good policies and reliable policies, but also trustworthy policy. The thing about the ANC, I think they are just not trusted any more. Only 12% of the eligible vote in South Africa, in other words, those that are allowed to vote between 18 and 108, only 12% of them voted in 2021 in the local government elections for the ANC. It is an indication of the absence of trust. The ANC is too unstable, too divided, too confrontational, too violent, I think, to really get the type of consensus and cohesion which would allow them to fight a proper election. I think they realise they are in big trouble and the reason it’s worthwhile for them to cling to Ramaphosa is because he’s always worth two or three or four or 5% in addition to what they would have got in any case. Without him, they might have been in bigger trouble last time and they will certainly be in even bigger trouble if they fight the 2024 election without him.
On why opposition parties can’t unseat ‘the biggest crime syndicate in the history of modern political economies’
You know what the problem is? The ANC in South Africa is the only political party that contests the election because they think they can win it. All the other parties play identity politics. They want the Coloured and the white people to vote for them, or they want the Zulus to support them, or they want the rural people to vote for them or they want only the coloured people in the towns or they are looking for the Indian vote. The thing is that it makes it almost impossible for them to eventually form a coalition which can unseat the ANC. Just think about it. The ANC – and it sounds cynical but there’s some reality and truth to it – is the biggest crime syndicate in the history of modern political economies. There are several reports that confirm this.
The opposition parties can’t muster the consensus and the loyalty and the trust from society to vote. There must be something seriously wrong with your opposition parties as well. The ANC is a problem in South Africa, but a much bigger problem is the fact that opposition parties simply do not manage to cement the type of consensus in society which will allow them to win an election. There’s not a single other political party in South Africa that contests the election because they think they can win it, or try to win it even. They deliberately identify minority constituencies and then they build their support, based around that and play towards the interests of that particular constitution and that’s what they do in elections. On local government level in the Western Cape and provincial politics, they try to form coalitions which will give them relative majorities because they can’t gain an absolute majority. In the Western Cape, the DA does have an absolute majority now, but generally it’s almost impossible for them to get an absolute majority. They play towards the ideals of a relative majority.
Read more: –
- ANC MPs ensure Ramaphosa lives to fight another day
- Uphill battle awaits Ramaphosa as he vies to retain ANC presidency
- ANC closes ranks, Ramaphosa impeachment inquiry motion defeated
