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As Winter Nears, the West May Save Putin
From Paris to Berlin, the coalition supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia is under heavy strain.
Can Vladimir Putin win at the ballot box what he can’t attain on the battlefield? If the West holds firm in its support for Ukraine, Mr. Putin will be unable to snuff out Ukraine’s independence and hard-pressed to defend the territory he has seized since Feb. 24. If the West wavers, all bets are off.
It is no surprise that Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is denouncing American arms shipments to Ukraine and insisting on U.S.-Russia cease-fire talks over the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. European energy sanctions against Russia have been a “catastrophe,” Mr. Orbán recently said, and “hope for peace is named Donald Trump.”
But it’s deeply concerning that many European countries are questioning their anti-Russian stance. The collapse of Mario Draghi’s government in Italy removed one of Europe’s staunchest pro-Ukrainian leaders, and the new right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is divided on the issue. Although Ms. Meloni has insisted her government will continue to support aid for Ukraine, her coalition partners disagree. Silvio Berlusconi has recently boasted about his friendship with Mr. Putin, and weeks before the election, Matteo Salvini argued against continuing Europe’s sanctions on Russia. Adding to Ms. Meloni’s challenges, the Five Star Movement—one of the country’s largest opposition parties—has long advocated ending arms shipments to Ukraine.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority weeks after winning re-election, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally emerged as the largest opposition party. Ms. Le Pen believes Ukraine has no chance of winning the war against Russia and that the West should push Mr. Zelensky to negotiate with Mr. Putin.
Although Ms. Le Pen can’t force Mr. Macron to change course, events may strengthen her hand. France has been rocked by protests over inflation, much of it sparked by soaring energy prices. Russia’s limited natural-gas shipments to Europe have sent French workers into the streets demanding higher wages—a situation that may worsen as colder weather increases the demand for gas and electricity. Making matters worse, half of France’s 56 nuclear reactors have been shut down because of maintenance issues, including corrosion on the pipes that cool the reactor cores. As winter sets in, France could face an electricity shortage that recently announced price caps will do nothing to alleviate. Not surprisingly, polls show declining support in France for sanctions against Russia.
Many Germans seem confident that their country can withstand the energy-supply price shock and emerge stronger than before. Others aren’t so sure. In the second quarter of 2022 alone, higher natural-gas prices increased the energy bill of BASF—one of Germany’s largest chemical firms—by $776 million. For Speira, a major German aluminum producer, a ton of aluminum was selling at only one-third the cost of the energy needed to produce it. “This is unsustainable,” said Volker Backs, the firm’s managing director. BASF’s CEO, Martin Brudermuller, recently said that “an unprecedented energy crisis . . . is threatening the very existence of Europe’s industrial production.”
For decades, Germany’s prosperity has relied on two pillars: cheap energy from Russia and ever-rising exports to China. The first is now gone, and slowing growth in China has thrown the second into doubt. The German public’s support for sanctions against Russia has fallen from 80% in March to 66% today. Still a strong majority, but for how long?
In the U.S., the bipartisan consensus in favor of aiding Ukraine is eroding. The number of House Republicans who opposed funding rose from three in the first tranche of aid, in March, to 57 in the most recent one, in May. According to the Pew Research Center, 32% of Republicans say the U.S. is providing too much support for the war, up from 9% in March. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is likely to become speaker if his party gains the majority in the midterm elections, recently said his party would be unwilling to “write a blank check” to Ukraine. This is likely to become the dominant position among House and Senate supporters of America First-style populist conservatism. One example is the Donald Trump-backed Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance, who told an interviewer in February: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”
There are developments on the other side of the aisle as well. On Monday 30 members of the House Progressive Caucus released a letter urging President Biden to pursue all paths to a negotiated end of the war in Ukraine, including direct talks with Russia. After an intraparty uproar, the caucus’s chairwoman, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, formally withdrew the letter the next day. Still, the impression lingers that near-unanimous Democratic support for the administration’s policy is eroding.
President Biden since February has mobilized and managed a unified Western front against Russia aggression. In coming months he will be challenged to maintain this front—at home and abroad—with the future of democracy’s struggle against autocracy hanging in the balance.
This column has been updated to account for the withdrawal of the Congressional Progressive Caucus letter.
