How to flatten Covid-19 curve: What deep analysis of 1918 flu “lockdowns” tell SA

President Cyril Ramaphosa's tough lockdown measures to stem the spread of Covid-19 are based on strategies that worked a century ago. And they may well prove to be the best defence against a pandemic that could easily kill hundreds of millions of people. Social, or physical, distancing isn't a new idea — it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic, reports National Geographic, which has examined how various cities handled the crisis and finds that this is probably the best way to limit deaths in the absence of a vaccine. It also draws attention to the fact that today's crisis management measures, including the use of face masks, are the same as they were a century ago. The specialist publication's historians conclude that cities that stayed in lockdown for longer saved more people, while those that eased restrictions too early saw a second spike in deaths. By the end of the pandemic, between 50 and 100 million people were dead worldwide, including more than 500,000 Americans, National Geographic reminds us. – Jackie Cameron

By Thulasizwe Sithole

After Philadelphia reported its first case of a deadly, fast-spreading strain of influenza on September 17, 1918, the next day, in an attempt to halt the virus' spread, city officials launched a campaign against coughing, spitting, and sneezing in public, recounts National Geographic. Just two weeks after the first reported case, there were at least 20,000 more, it says.

Ten days after the first case emerged, the publication points out, the city hosted a parade that 200,000 people attended, with flu cases mounting until October 3, when churches, theatres, and public gathering spaces were shut down.

"The 1918 flu, also known as the Spanish Flu, lasted until 1920 and is considered the deadliest pandemic in modern history. Today, as the world grinds to a halt in response to the coronavirus, scientists and historians are studying the 1918 outbreak for clues to the most effective way to stop a global pandemic," says National Geographic.

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